Obama WILL win in 2012, and Dems WILL re-take the House in 2012. Here's why:

[RBInMaine]

1) The economy WILL NOT double dip into recession, and it WILL continue to improve. Virtually NO economists are predicting double dip. Virtually ALL are expecting continued GROWTH economy. Despite what the corporate media says, May still ADDED 54,000 jobs even with horrendous storms all over the country, fallout from the Japan disaster, and spikes in gas and food prices. Many jobs lost were state and local government jobs, but many states are already seeing improvments in their bottom lines. Again, all this and STILL the economy ADDED jobs. Not enough, but it was a GAIN. This on top of several months of gains of around 200,000. The summer will show further improvement, and by this time next year people will be FEELING as though things are improving steadily.

2) The Pubs don't have good candidates. Mittens and Pawlenty are their hope, and both are yawn-inducing flip floppers. Romney will take a horrendous beating by the TEAPubs, and he will split the party bigtime if nominated. He will also be attacked brutally by US as a corporate job-killing flip flopper.

3) We will hang VOUCHER-CARE and the rest of the pro-billionaire Ryan budget around their necks like a millstone. Look at NY26. The Dem just won in the deepest of DEEP RED districts. The message will be simple: We support Medicare and SS and want to balance the budget by making the rich pay their fair share again. THEY want to do it by destroying Medicare and replacing it with VOUCHER-CARE, and they want to kill Social Security. We will say it a million times. It is true, and it will work.

4) We will have an awesome well-financed ground operation, and people all over the country with crazy right wing governors are pissed as hell. That is how it is in Maine, WI, OH, FL and others. People are PISSED at the right wing extremists at the local level, and the local and state Dems are going to make sure they vote.

5) Demographics help us. Traditional Dems, union workers, etc. will be out in force and working hard on our side, more elderly will be with us because of VOUCHER-CARE, and African Americans and Hispanics will be out in big numbers. This helps us all over the country, and especially in some of the key swing states. Younger voters too.

[onehandle]

1. Yeah, but Sarah™ has a bus.

Do you deny that Sarah™ has a bus!?

;-)

[RBInMaine]

2. She has a bus, but she has no brains. "Paul Revere rang bells to tell the British not to take our

guns." What a fucking idiot.

[roguevalley]

12. in my opinion, obama made a mistake not going after

jobs first, health care second. Never underestimate the power of despair.

No one is fixing this problem. Its an openinf for a demogogue. Fdr prevented one by doing so during the depression. Germany didn't.

[Jim Lane]

21. Obama DID go after jobs first

The first thing he tackled was the stimulus package -- which, despite the lying from Faux et al., saved about two million jobs. (I agree with Krugman that more should've been done, but Obama's effort, inadequate though it was, was still far more than President McCain would've done.)

It was only after the stimulus passed that Obama turned to health insurance reform.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

57. Thank you!! This is a lie that wasn't refuted even on Bill Maher the other night.

Obama DID have a jobs package; he even had a green jobs package. The stimulus was supposed to be for shovel ready projects, which really is the equivalent of a WPA.

The House Democrats also tried to get several jobs bills through the chamber and the Senate, which of course was filibustered by Republicans. The Senate had its version that was pushed by Harry Reid. Again, the Republicans filibustered the package.

My only problem with the stimulus is that it wasn't big enough. Obama's major problem was that he caved to the idea that tax cuts would help lift the economy. Of course the problem is that most Americans didn't even know that they received a tax cut from the stimulus package. All they hear is that the stimulus was an abysmal failure. No, it wasn't a failure; it just wasn't big enough.

The piss-poor messaging on the Democratic side will doom the party.

If we want to win, we have got to do a better job at messaging. It's not just Obama's mission; it's the mission of ALL of us, including the so-called liberal pundits and commentators. They must have the facts at the ready to combact the falsehoods that are thrown at them. All too often, they are slow to respond or fail outright when a right-wing lie is presented as truth.

[Hippo_Tron]

27. The President has Air Force One and a motorcade

One of the great perks of incumbency.

[Mopar151]

33. It's a rental....

Anybody know who paid the tab?

[yellowcanine]

68. She has a bus but it "is not about her." It is "about the message"

Oh never mind.

[Tippy]

3. Sarah is a BUST.....in addition

Also, Obama is raising money hand over fist. Repubs pushing the limit in the states almost insurers we will take back the house. Of course it will take 4 years to undo the damage these jokers have done to this country....

[Name removed]

4. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[mikekohr]

6. President Barack Obama Is An Extreemly Strong Candidate

He will win 53-55% of the popular vote.
He will bring to the polls the voters we can not motivate to show up in off year elections.
His coattails will ensure we retain the Senate and regain control of the House.

And there are a billion other reasons why he will win, and everyone of them is a dollar sign, the amount he will raise from donors across all economic strata.

[Amimnoch]

7. I hope you are right, but I worry much about the Senate.

NT

[mikekohr]

9. The Senate Will Be the Toughest Fight

agreed.

[Amimnoch]

10. On a positive note....

Even if the pukes make the best realistic gains possible, they may take the majority, but there's no statistical chance that they will break the magical cloture number of 60.

[jmowreader]

51. The Republicans are the ones who filibuster everything

The cloture issue isn't going to be a problem if the Republicans take back the Senate--they'll just stop filibustering. A lot of Reagan's dirty work was passed with 51 votes in the Senate, which is all it is SUPPOSED to take.

[Amimnoch]

55. Please don't forget the 107th congress.

Cloture works against us when we are the majority party, but there's times when the filibuster was our best, and only friend.

I dread what the Supreme court, and our laws would look now if, back in 2001-2003 there was no filibuster. Remember 9-11? Remember the aftermath when, for some reason that still escapes me this entire country seemed to be hellbound to support every freedom restriction law that the pukes seemed ready to shit out upon us?? The filibuster, and threat of filibuster saved our tails many times during that period. That's just for the laws that pukes TRIED to pass. Who knows what the 18th century cowboy pukes would have tried to pass if there was no threat of filibuster.. during that period when people were willing to give them just about any power they wanted, and the pukes had the House, Senate, and the Presidency??

I'm sorry, but as much as I hated the obstructionist methods the pukes used against us from 08 to 10, I will never support the elimination of the filibuster. Its whole purpose is to keep the majority running roughshod over the minority. Yes, sometimes it is a damn pain in the arse to deal with, and sometimes it is very frustrating, especially when we have both legislative and the executive branch on our side, and when we're that fortunate it's aggrivating to have to deal with. But the winds change, they alway have, they probably always will. I don't want the pukes to have a Senate without a filibuster, so I much accept that we don't have it either.

[Amimnoch]

5. IMO you're right on the presidency, probably right on the house, but the Senate is in danger

Still a long way off, and so much can change. Short a strong Democrat primary against President Obama, I think we're as close to a solid second term for him as can be expected.

The House has a decent chance of swinging back. There are more pukes in danger of losing their seat than there are Democrats.

I do think holding the Senate will be difficult. 6 retiring Democrats, of those 3 of the seats are a realistic chance for a puke grab. 16 Democrats are facing challenges, of which only 2x are in real danger of being losing and being replaced with a puke challenger. Only 2 republican senators are retiring, and unfortunately neither of those have a realistic chance of us getting one of our people in as their replacement. Only 8 sitting pukes are up for re-election, and running. Of those only 2 are in a position where they could be unseated. Not the best of odds for us to hold onto the Senate. IMHO, this is why we REALLY need to get the House back, and I'm sooooo hoping you are right, but really, the house is a dangerously close call.

[Eagle Mall]

30. Obama will win by a margin that safely puts the House and Senate in Democratic hands

[Vanje]

32. I hope so. Please let it be so!

...and when Obama, and the Senate and Congressional Dems win by large margins, THEN can progressives criticize our President when he cow-tows to the Corporations, bankers, billionaires, and continues Bush policies and wars?

Would you be alright with that THEN?

[Eagle Mall]

38. There is a big difference between a critic and a stumbling block.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

58. If the Democrats that we elect are themselves progressives and can get progressive

legislation out of the Senate. If that happens and Obama vetoes that progressive legislation, then yes, you can bitch and moan all you want and I'll be right there with you, bitching and moaning.

But, until we get more progressives or liberals elected to the Senate--which *IS* the problem--I still don't see how you can blame Obama.

If you want more liberal policy outcomes, my friend, you have to have liberal politicians serving in Congress.

[southernyankeebelle]

8. Well I hope your right BUT

You got state houses full with republicans trying to suppress voters. They are going to cheat and steal elections like they did in 2000. I wonder what Obama is going to do about these voting machines. We are getting a taste of what is happening in WI.

[RBInMaine]

15. Can't dwell on that kind of fear. We will have lawyers crawling all over the polls. Just WORK.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

59. Look, as long as we show up in MASSIVE numbers, they can't steal it.

That's all their is to it. They can't stop ALL of us from voting, can they? No!

What we have to do is stop making excuses and just get out there and work. The Rethugs took back the House in 2010 because not enough of us showed up. That's just a fact.

We show up. We win. We don't show up. We lose. It's just that simple.

[struggle4progress]

11. Over-confidence costs us elections

[RBInMaine]

14. Dooming and glooming and whining and bitching and moaning is WORSE. Look at last November !

[Jakes Progress]

34. But, but. We'd rather be giddy than win.

Why be so all down and dreary. Here take the pill. It'll clear that right up.

Besides, if we lose, we can always say it was the debbie downer's fault. Just like Oprah says: If you wish it, it will happen. Promise.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

60. Not if we back that over-confidence up with over-voting!!! n/t

[Top Cat]

13. K&R

[nashville_brook]

16. gotta a link for the "no economists predict double dip" assertion?

[RBInMaine]

19. Yup. Google "MYWEB ROLLINS ECONOMIC FORECASTS". This will give an array of predictions.

You will see a spectrum of both government and private firm forecasts. NONE predict double dip recession. They do show some low growth periods and slower growth this year overall than next year, but it is GROWTH and NOT a double dip recession. Remember, if unemployment inches up, that usually means more people entering the job market and not a net loss of jobs, just as we saw in May. Remember, even with high gas and food prices, fallout over the Japan mess, and bad storms all over the nation, we still ADDED 54,000 jobs. There are other sites as well that confirm these forecasts. I've read several. Google more and you will too.

[nashville_brook]

35. added 54k lost 400k -- that's a net loss.

[RBInMaine]

39. ??? Guess your math and Department of Labor's clash.

[tekisui]

17. When talking about the economy, the unemployment numbers are most important.

May added a fraction of jobs, and the unemployment rate when up.

[pnwmom]

18. But the Rethugs are working hard to knock voters off the roles

and they will succeed -- so we need to counter that with massive voter I.D. (when necessary) and registration efforts.

[zalinda]

20. Yup, and Bush will never get elected

Oh, wait, he did. But, he won't serve a second term, oh, wait, he did. We will get a bigger majority in congress, oh, wait, we didn't.

Those who think Obama or dems are a shoo in, seem to be oblivious to what is happening to the majority of Americans out here. The dems are not pointing in the direction of creating jobs, or if they are, they are being very quiet about it. No one is yelling from the roof tops about what the repubs are doing, except maybe Weiner, and we know what happened to him. Bernie Sanders is probably the most vocal liberal voice out there, and he isn't a dem.

Let's get real. The dems look and act like all the geeks and wimps that we've seen in high school, while the repubs come off as the jocks and bullies. Who would do you think win the most class president elections?

zalinda

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

61. Again, why don't you prove yourself wrong by just showing up and voting.

This doom and gloom attitude will cost us the election. The Rethugs lost big in 2006 and 2008, yes? Did they just give up? No, they redoubled their efforts and won big in 2010 because we didn't show up in great enough numbers.

If we show up, then we win.

[zalinda]

64. Honey, it's not me you have to worry about

It's those pesky, squishy, middle of the road independents, who vote only when they are inspired to. Obama fired them up in 2008, but most all of his promises turned to ashes. Either he gets a fire under his butt, or he'll lose. And, I can't see his tailcoats being long or strong enough to pull in those dems who need to be elected or re-elected.

Gloom and doom? That's where hope and change goes when it dies.

zalinda

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

66. Honey, actually *it is* you! You have to talk to people, just like you did in 2008.

You cannot rely on one man to be the savior of it all. That's ridiculous! In fact, the largest change in the president's current approval rating is due to Independents' view of him. So, yes, you're right in the sense that he has to keep the independents happy, which means that he CANNOT be a liberal/progressive purist. You're wrong in the sense that we don't have anything else to do on our side but show up. We have to show up in HUGE numbers, just as we did in 2008.


www.whatthefuckhasobamadone.org

[zalinda]

67. I'm sorry, but I don't like him, never did

and he hasn't done a thing to make me change my mind. I'm still in poverty. My son still can't find a job. And, the economy is still pretty much fucked.

But, he certainly has done a whole hell of a lot of things for the rich people of this country, maybe you should be talking to them about going door to door to talk up what Obama has done for this country. Oh, wait, they're too busy hiring third world people to work for pennies, foreclosing on homes, or counting their money to bother with something so trivial. Oh, yeah, that's right, they win no matter who is in the White House.

zalinda

[former9thward]

22. Plenty of economists predict double dip.

You just don't want to listen to them. http://www.wmrn.com/pages/nationalnews.html?feed=104668&article=8654604

[Peacetrain]

23. and plenty don't... economists have a political agenda also..

[former9thward]

24. Yes they do and so does an OP which states NO economists predict double dip.

[RBInMaine]

40. Most economic forecasters do not. Seems you want to wallow in gloom. Get a med.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

25. THANK YOU!!!! I agree! n/t

[Dawson Leery]

26. kick

[Tarheel_Dem]

28. Agreed. K&R

:kick:

[Eagle Mall]

29. It's as good as done.

[Kablooie]

31. Better hope Obama doesn't cave on Medicare to prevent national default.

The GOP is threatening to force America to default on it's loans unless the Democrats take Medicare cuts onto their own shoulders.

Obama has a history of caving to this kind of tactic.
Hope he can hold out this time.

[RBInMaine]

41. Obama = most PROGRESSIVE legislation since LBJ. Enough of the fringe "caving" meme.

[humbled_opinion]

43. What Progressive legislation?

Are you talking about that HCR which relys on forcing via mandate that people purchase insurance from private insurance companies? Thats progressive? I truly doubt that it will pass the SCOTUS and it will likely be repealed.... Serves him right too for not championing the Public Option right from the start, we controlled the house and the Senate if we were going to burn all the political capital to passs this crap then we should have done it right or not at all.

Don't get me wrong I love the fix for pre-existing conditions and the ability to retain young adults on parents plans but those could have been passed as independent measures which really could have been lauded as progressive i.e. forcing private insurance industry to live by standards set by the people..

[RBInMaine]

47. First, take a break from the fringe. Next, YouTube Maddow for a refresher course.

[LongTomH]

36. Plan to run as if we're coming from behind!

After all is said and done, the Republicans are incredibly well-financed and, you can bet your bottom dollar (if you've got one left!) that they're planning more dirty tricks for this election, including some new ones.

[DCBob]

37. I hope you are right on item 1.. cuz that is the key issue..

i suspect you are right but if we do slip back into a nasty recession, all bets are off and any reasonable GOPer could win.

[JAnthony]

42. Maine chicken farmers know the rules: "Don't count........

your chickens............" Maine chicken breeders know the rest.

We all should learn it.

It's like predicting the November beginning winter of 2012 in Augusta, Maine........impossible to do today!

Could be unreasonably WARM, or we could have 5 real blizzards.

[RBInMaine]

46. You'd be safer predicting the blizzards. On the politics, you can doom and gloom or accentuate the

positive. Your choice.

[JAnthony]

48. NO, there is a THIRD choice.........not predicting, just doing the work that

needs to be done, as any chicken farmer in Maine would tell you.. you don't get to next month's eggs without working to feed the hens today.

Please stop with with the fantasy and personal insults. Maine democrats don't spend their time insulting each other. And with the lousy job they have done electing reasonable people to represent them in the state this last year, predictions of what DC should look like in 2013 is way beyond a volunteer pay grade, and way out of line for them to personally publicly insult other DU members here.

[Name removed]

44. Deleted message

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[Name removed]

45. Deleted message

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[JoeyT]

49. Unrec.

Because the OP is insulting people by accusing them of being mentally ill.

[RBInMaine]

50. I am calling out the foolish doom and gloom mentality. *I don't actually think they need meds.

At least I hope not. Just making a point. Yes, I'm doing it in a tough way, but that's politics. Doom and gloom, and I'm someone who calls it out. About time someone did. It was this doom and gloom nonsense that kept Dems home in 2010, and look how SCREWED we got because of it. No damn need of it.

[humbled_opinion]

52. More foolishness 2010 had nothing

to do with gloom and doom. If Obama had stuck to his core principles the 2010 mid terms would have been met with much greater enthusiasm. Granted there are millions of Democrats that will vote for Obama in 2012 simply because he has (D) next to his name and those people would never vote for the (R) no matter what but there will be a ton of Independents and people that are centrist politically that won't be voting for the (D) they may not vote for the (R) either depending on what it is but it leaves 2012 as a very cynical year for Presidential politics much closer to the 1980 election then any other time...

[readmoreoften]

53. Yes they will!!! And they will continue to government for the bankers and from the right.

The only thing that will be averted is the election of outright fascists.

[RandomThoughts]

54. If I do not have the beer and travel money.

Then we are already ran as a fascist society, with all the bells and whistles that go with that.

Because only a fascist society would not correct that.

[VeryConfused]

56. Damn right!

[Fuddnik]

62. Double dip? We haven't come out of the first dip yet.

[totodeinhere]

63. You also predicted that the Democrats would not lose control of the House last time.

And we all know what really happened. So why should we take your predictions seriously this time given your track record?

[Ter]

65. Obama will win, but I don't see us picking up dozens of House seats

We'll see though.