POLL: Hochul (D) continues to lead in NY-26, 42% vs. 36% vs. 13%.

[jefferson_dem]

Hochul continues to lead in NY-26

Democrat Kathy Hochul continues to appear poised for an upset victory in Tuesday's special election for Congress in New York's 26th Congressional District. She is polling at 42% to 36% for Republican nominee Jane Corwin and 13% for Tea Party candidate Jack Davis.

Since a PPP poll of the race two weeks ago Hochul has gained 7 points of support and Corwin has gained 5 while Davis has dropped by 11. It appears that Hochul has done a good job of staying above the fray as the campaign has taken on an increasingly negative tenor in its final days. Hochul's favorability is a +14 spread at 51/37, up 8 points from the previous poll when it was +6 at 46/40. Corwin meanwhile has seen a 15 decline in her net favorability. She was already unpopular at -3 (39/42) on our previous poll but that is now much worse at -18 (34/52). Davis has seen the biggest decline in his image though. Voters were evenly split 43/43 in their assessments of him two weeks ago. Now his favorability spread is a horrid -39 with only 23% of voters rating him positively and 62% with a negative opinion.

Davis' presence in the race is certainly a key reason Hochul finds herself in such a strong position. He is winning 16% of the Republican vote while getting only 8% of Democrats. Still it would be unfair to Hochul to say Davis is the only reason she might pull the upset- she is showing a good amount of crossover support, getting 16% of Republicans to Corwin's 11% of Democrats. And she's also up 36-34 with independents. There were not very many House races in 2010 where the Democratic candidate won 16% of Republican voters and the independents.

There's still reason though to think Corwin could pull this race out. By a 41-39 margin voters in the district would like their new member of Congress to caucus with the Republicans rather than the Democrats in the House. Those planning to vote for Davis hold that sentiment by an even wider margin at 48-20. Davis' support has been plummeting and if that trend continues and conservatives who don't really like Corwin hold their nose and end up voting for her anyway she still has a chance to win a narrow victory.

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http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2011/05/hochul-continues-to-lead-in-ny-26.html

[ccharles000]

1. ...

this would be a wonderful victory

[GSLevel9]

2. tea party torpedoes another moderate Pub. nt

[DCBob]

5. Its more than TP effect.. its also a referendum on the Ryan budget..

which may be a bellweather of things to come in 2012.. good things.

[GSLevel9]

6. Hmmmmm...

Maybe but it seems more like a bagger splitting the rightie vote

[DCBob]

7. Not entirely.. it you read the article some of those baggers are actually Dems..

Without Davis it would be about a 6 point net gain for Corwin which would still make it a very close race which it shouldnt be considering it has been a solid GOP district for a long time. The controversy over the Ryan budget is having a big impact on this race and will likely have major impact in 2012 if the GOP is still pushing that non-sense by then.

[elleng]

8. Moderate? She ain't no such thing, imo.

[Change Happens]

3. Is the vote tomorrow?

[LiberalFighter]

4. I hope they have a good GOTV