MN-Gov: GOP behind Coleman but Dems divided

[ccharles000]

From Rasmussen (11/10/09):

In the Republican primary:

Norm Coleman (R): 50
Marty Seifert (R): 11
Laura Brod (R): 5
Tom Emmer (R): 1
Another Candidate: 7
Undecided: 26

Margin of Error: (+/- 5.5%)

To show just how much of a strong frontrunner and standard bearer the Minnesota GOP is missing since Tim Pawlenty's announcement to not run again, the GOP's top choice is the recently defeated Senator who lost to a comedian by only 300 plus votes, as well as someone who squandered Minnesota's time and money on a seven month long recount challenge that led to the same result that the state had decided on months prior.

In the Democratic primary, however, things are slightly different:

R.T. Rybak (D): 30
Mark Dayton (D): 30
Margaret Anderson Kelliher (D): 8
Matt Entenza (D): 6
Another Candidate: 5
Undecided: 20

Margin of Error (+/- 5%)

So it looks like on the Democratic side a two way fight between former senator Mark Dayton and Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak. It seems Rybak is the one with the fresh face that the Democrats need to present to voters, but Dayton is the only other candidate who has ever run statewide (see 1982 Senate campaign in Minnesota).

No additional information about what a head to head matchup would look like. But I suspect that Norm Coleman probably wouldn't be doing so well even against Mark Dayton.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=5912

[dflprincess]

1. The DFL is blessed this year with an abundance of good candidates

a lot of us hacks haven't made up our minds yet. At least two of our candidates (Dayton & John Marty) would like to see Minnesota develop its own single payer system. I know a lot of people were looking at their health care position (though so far our pals in Congress are putting the brakes on that in favor of continuing our indentured servitude to the insurance companies). The other big issue, as it is in many states, is how they'll make up the budget deficit without doing more harm to the most vulnerable citizens.

The Rasmussen poll may be way off if it did not take into account the responses from likely caucus attenders. A lot of candidates will be taken out of the race during that process and any primary (always more likely with the DFL) won't happen until September. If they were polling the general voting public, the results may have to do more with name recognition than anything else.

[MineralMan]

3. Very true. I'll certainly be caucusing again this time.

But, I'm going to go for the state convention, too, this year. I could have done it in 2008, but passed. Our district has pretty small turnouts at the caucuses...even in 2008. Lots of people showed up and voted, but anyone who wanted could be a delegate. Clearly, at the state senate level, I could easily have been a convention candidate, but wasn't sure I wanted to spend two days in Rochester.

This time, I won't hesitate.

The caucus system in Minnesota really is interesting. If you live in MN, get involved. You can truly make a difference, given the poor turnouts.

[mzmolly]

5. Agreed.

I like both Dayton and Rybak.

[Zoeisright]

2. If the third party candidate would just STAY OUT,

Minnesota could have a Democratic governor again. It just burns me how the repuke keeps getting elected by splitting the Democratic vote. It's been happening for too long.

[dflprincess]

4. It makes a good argument for statewide instant run off voting n/t

[question everything]

6. Rybak is Pawlenty light

both are running for the next office instead of running the state/city for which they are drawing salaries.

Both show complete contempt to the voters.

[mascarax]

7. Did I miss something -- Norman's running?

Why oh why can he not just go away?

I know it was being floated right after his Senate loss, but is he making noise now? (I try very very hard to forget he exists.)

Also, the Kelliher number seems low to me. (Good to see Entenza down there tho. Stay there, Matt.)

[dflprincess]

8. I haven't heard that Normie has said he's running

I thought he'd taken himself out of it, but that could be wishful thinking.

I'm with you on Entenza, I can only hope his numbers go lower. The problem is, he'll probably take it to the primary and he's got the money (from his wife's former position at United Health Group) to run a very expensive media campaign. I don't suppose he and Lois are among those hoping Minnesota can develop it's own single payer system.

[otohara]

9. Thank You For Keeping Us Updated on All Races

I really appreciate your threads! :yourock:

[backscatter712]

10. Oh God... Horse Teeth is back!

Say it ain't so!