Obama will win 2012 in a landslide.

[denem]

"Projecting the present as the future is foolish at the best of times, let alone now"

Obama will certainly win IF
the economy is roaring back in the second half of 2012
A Morning in America MKII with his
Reaganesque legacy of 1 trillion in tax breaks and
a sweetner: 2 million stories of people unemployed
who kept their benefits.

A big IF. Yes.

Here's what I wrote in January 2008 while GDP was obsessing about the 'Electability' Of Hillary and Obama:

2008 Electability Morans

Edited on Sat Jan-12-08 04:21 PM by denem

What are the candidates out there doing at the moment other than sniping? They are scrambling to address the economy, because, as even the Bush Administration knows, we are on the edge of a recession. Nobody wants it. Nobody is talking it up.

Polls on perceived negatives and strength mean little when the election is 10 months away and the unemployment rate may be 10% by then. Look around. The Fed is talking a half a percent rate cut, the Administration is negotiating with congress on a $100 billion tax cut / spending package, the dollar has crashed and consumer confidence is at historic lows.

Projecting the present as the future is foolish at the best of times, let alone now.

http://demopedia.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4044628

Projecting the past as the future is even more foolish perhaps, but the economy now looks a lot like December 1982.

[displacedvermoter]

1. Nothing to worry about then from us far-left racist haters!

n/t

[denem]

2. You were wrong last time.

[displacedvermoter]

10. In what way?

I think my fears are playing out just about how I envisioned them, unfortunately.

[Life Long Dem]

11. Same old shit in the primary.

[onehandle]

3. The unemployment rate is projected to still be above 8% in late 2012.

Possibly, still above 9%.

That being said, I think he will be re-elected, but not by a landslide.

[RichGirl]

5. Yes but the unemployed will be receiving...

...their unemployment checks thanks to the president who put them ahead of his own political future.

[dflprincess]

8. Only if they extend UI benefits again.

The current extension only lasts 13 months.

But the extension of the tax cuts will still be in effect in November 2012.

[denem]

6. Which is projecting the future from the present.

I said IF

[Jackpine Radical]

4. I think you're not acknowledging

how deep a goddam hole we're in.

None of that wonderful stuff is gonna happen by Nov 2012.

Yeah, yeah, the future is one of the hardest things there is to predict and all that, but this one I'll bet on.

[denem]

7. Reagan had 10.4% unemployment in Dec 1982.

[griffi94]

13. reagan didn't have nafta

and cafta and all the deregulated free trade either.

[griffi94]

12. reminds me of the gop

in 2006 and 2008 saying that the war in iraq could turn around in the next year and change the whole landscape.

where are the magical jobs going to come from. the ui extension is just a bandaid to stop the immediate bleeding, it doesn't fix anything.

the deficit will still be thru the roof, even more so now, outsourcing will still be the order of the day, and it looks like the foreclosures will be up as well.

quick fix bandaids won't fix this and while i'm happy that ui is being extended what about folks who have been unemployed for longer than 99 weeks.

[niceypoo]

9. Supply side drives wages down

Supply side does not stimulate. Two more years of supply side mean the we have to wait two additional years for a recovery. Supply side is what collapsed the economy in the first place.