Does Obama realize that he's walking into a huge trap if he compromises on the tax cuts?

[Cali_Democrat]

The greatest contributor to the deficit the past decade has been Bush's tax cuts. The Republicans know this and they know damn well that extending the tax cuts will contribute greatly to the deficit.

So if Obama compromises and the tax cuts are extended, who will be blamed for the resulting deficit? Obama of course. The Republicans will hang the deficit around his neck.

Not only will the Republicans have their tax cuts for millionaires and billionaires, but they will use the deficit talking point against Obama. And of course the Dem base that will be demoralized because Obama went back on his word.

Am I missing anything here? Is my analysis off? :Shrug:

[Jackpine Radical]

1. I don't really see the flaw in your reasoning.

[TwilightGardener]

2. He's already in the trap. He just needs to get out of it now, get

as many concessions as possible, take the loss on the chin, and move on. He's going to break a campaign promise no matter what--not a good spot to be in, but it happens to most Presidents.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

4. no tax cuts for millionaires Obama!

this is the biggest issue

[TwilightGardener]

6. Well, it's going to go down that way, so best be prepared for it.

[xxqqqzme]

14. Not if he lets them expire.

His campaign rhetoric was to let them expire.

[Ian David]

3. IT'S A TRAP!

[paparush]

27. It's a TARP!

[jsamuel]

5. That is what I have been saying.

If the Bush tax cuts are going to be passed, make the Republicans do it. Don't let them make the Democrats do their dirty work for them.

[benlurkin]

7. Is it a trap if he gets the unemployment extensions he is asking for?

I haven't read up on this as much over the weekend but from what I have seen, the Republicans can't win if they are painted into a corner over unemployment benefits. Politically, it will be a disaster for them, especially at Christmas time.

[LastLiberal in PalmSprings]

13. He's not going to get unemployment extensions

The GOP is Lucy, Obama is Charlie Brown, the employment benefits are the football. Once the Repukes get what they want (permanent tax cuts for the rich) they'll just run out the clock on all the Dem agenda items -- unemployment, START, the DREAM Act, DADT. "Don't rush us. Let's start again in new congress." We saw the same tactic used during health care debate.

It used to be that one half plus one constituted a majority. Cheney brags about being the deciding vote on the Bush tax cuts. Now we know that 59 (or even 60) aren't enough. Whether to let the Bush tax cuts expire should be a no-brainer and we're wasting all our time on it. Bring the other issues forward and let the U.S. see the Repugs for what they are -- people who care more for the very rich than they do for the well-being of America's citizens and its national security.

[alcibiades_mystery]

15. Bookmarking

[pa28]

8. Shifting blame for debt and deficit was in their playbook during the last election.

Their strategy worked and now they've separated the tax cut issue from the current climate of deficit hysteria.

If you've ever read "The Godfather" you might be reminded of how 'good business creates more business'.

Thanks to the revenue shortfall the conversation now shifts to austerity; cuts in the safety net, middle class tax deductions and a regressive shift in the tax burden. (to increase revenue of course :eyes:)

Republicans get a trophy in the form of fat tax cut for the rich and at the same time lay the groundwork for another assault on all things Democratic.

[jenmito]

9. Well, his latest approval in Gallup's Tracking Poll is up to 48% and

his disapproval down to 43%: http://www.gallup.com/Home.aspx Maybe he DOES know what he's doing.

[SharonAnn]

10. And if the compromise is for 2 years? Just in time for the presidential campaign.

[truthspeak]

11. Obama is the one setting the trap...

Its a win-win for Obama. If the economy improves, then he'll be seen as the pragmatic leader that worked with his opposition to get the job done. If the economy stalls, then he can dispel that "tax cuts provide jobs" theory for the dumb sheep aka american electorate...and basically cut off one of the repubs biggest talk points at the knees. But he has to get out on front of the message tho...

[jsamuel]

16. ...

Those tax cuts have been in effect for the past 10 years. If he can't already dispel the "tax cuts provide jobs" theory, then he won't in 2/3 years either. If the economy improves it won't be because of the tax cuts for the top 2%.

[truthspeak]

18. the sheep are paying attention now...

the sheep are watching the repubs moves now...before they were daydreaming that everything was good. Now they are watching the repubs "big solution" to get jobs back. They will be held responsible by the angry sheep...if Obama sets it up just right, that is.

[sweetapogee]

30. Of course

you correctly identify the main issue as being the economy. But you assume that there will be significant improvement in time for the run up top the 2012 elections. I hope you are correct but first the economy has to bottom out before it can improve. There is not much time.

Many here on DU like to call the President a republican, right of center and accuse him of being a spineless bipartisan. This is quite silly and beginning next month we will start to appreciate just how silly this concept is. I hate to throw a pail of cold water on your theory (the parable of the pragmatic leader) but we will soon see the dems and the pukes at each others throats. Anytime the President agrees with the pukes it will piss off liberals. He is not going to do it unless he has no other choice. If he sides with the pukes on anything, he will most likely be breaking a campaign promise or two.

Another thing that has to be factored into the mix is Issa's power to investigate. We don't know what he has up his sleeve, just saying he has nothing good to investigate is of no comfort, we just don't know how any investigations will affect the next election.

In summery, I understand that we in general have to vent our frustrations but in my estimation the best hope for President Obama in 2012 is for the pukes to be as stupid and blinded by greed and power as we claim in our many posts. Because if the pukes play this smartly, it is going to be a grim post election discussion we will be having. I appreciate your positive attitude because in my private life I also tend toward being positive. But the way I see it, making a "win-win" for the President at this point seems slightly out of reach and is quickly approaching "too late" status. No one expects the President to be perfect, but President Obama must not be perceived as being a weak leader. Obama must take charge of the national conversation and be it's gatekeeper. If he doesn't gain control of the agenda, the pukes will pound in the message that the President has his weaknesses and this condition will not play well.

Good points made though.

[Skittles]

12. they play him like a fiddle, and he makes it damned easy

[Hawkowl]

17. Obama doesn't CARE

See he actually believes that tax cuts are good for the economy. Along with free trade agreements. What a maroon!

[craigmatic]

19. You're exactly right. Repubs have no core princilples and will continually shift focus saying

Obama is too one thing or too the complete opposite of the first thing.

[old mark]

20. I think Obama still believes the republicans WANT to do good for the people...he does not

seem to grasp that they do not care what happens to anyone who is not a rich GOP supporter.

mark

[Thrill]

21. Too many Democrats in Congress want the Bust Tax Cuts

That's the bigger problem

[secondwind]

22. Pence and DeMint are already preparing legislation to make the cuts PERMANENT,

Pence said so himself last week.

[SwampG8r]

23. only thing i see that could be done on this OP

to make it more concise
if that is what the last question is seeking
is
i would put the word "again" after this
"the Dem base that will be demoralized because Obama went back on his word"

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

24. Rachel Maddow pointed this out months ago. Anything the Dems/Obama do will be a lost cause.

1. Let the tax cuts expire. Taxes are raised on the middle class. If the economy were in great shape, I'd support this idea. I think rates should return to Clinton era levels. However, the economy was doing well back then. It's not now. Republicans will have their talking point that Democrats raised taxes on everyone, unless somehow the Democrats fight back on the messaging war and the Corporate Media gives attention to that message.

2. Let the tax cuts expire, but reauthorize tax cuts directed at the middle class in the new Congress. Well, the House is now controlled by the Republicans and the filibuster is still strong in the Senate. Therefore, it doesn't work.

3. Continue the Bush tax cuts for 1 or 2 years. Assuming that Obama wins another term--which I highly doubt--doing this is like basically permanently extending them. Sends our deficit soaring. Gives Republicans an opportunity to blame Democrats even thought they were the ones responsible.

4. Extend the Bush tax cuts while also extending unemployment benefits. Without an effective jobs package, unemployment benefits amount to a band-aid remedy. The wealthy win. The Republicans win. The American people lose.

[JoePhilly]

29. Item #1 in you list incljudes another major issue ...

If Obama allows all of the tax cuts to expire, the GOP will claim that he broke his promise to not raise taxes on those making LESS THAN $250,000. This was one of his biggest campaign promises. If these cuts expire, the GOP, and the media will claim ENDLESSLY that he broke this promise ... a promise he made to 95% of Americans.

If we had an honest media, they'd be pointing out that the best way to address both issues is to only extend the tax cuts for the middle class, even if the cap moved to 1 million. But we don't have an honest media.

What we have are millionaires on TV and radio explaining why giving folks like themselves, and Rush Limbaugh, a huge tax break so they can create jobs.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

32. I agree. I had to turn the tee-vee off yesterday. And I no longer watch "the news" at all, cable and

otherwise.

This is a problem that Democrats have faced for many years. And because the Republicans have successfully convinced the majority of Americans that the media has some kind of liberal bias, it's very difficult--near impossible--to convince them otherwise.

It's hard, for example, when most Americans believe that TARP was a product of the Obama administration.

It's hard, for example, when most Americans believe that taxes have gone up when in fact, the stimulus consisted of 1/3rds tax cuts, even though it is proven that tax cuts don't work. Indeed, the stimulus should have been bigger and much of it was wasted on tax cuts that most Americans didn't even feel in their pockets.

Americans have bought into all these falsehoods including the 'government takeover' of health care and many other lies propagated by the Right, and even with the acquiesence of the Left and the Corporate Media.

[JoePhilly]

35. Agree again ... as the saying goes ...

"the greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he doesn’t exist."

The media version goes like this ....

"the greatest trick the GOP ever pulled was convincing the American people that a liberal media does exist."

[harun]

25. They already compromised, deal is done. Wealthy will get their tax cuts.

Our only hope is with the House Progressives but they are putting enough of a carrot in the Senate version that they too will vote for the bill.

Jimmy Carter gave good advice to what Obama should do in this instance last night on a Book TV interview:

http://www.booktv.org/Program/12154/Jimmy+Carters+Advice+for+President+Obama+on+Working+with+Congress.aspx

Whole interview was awesome if anyone is interested they will post the whole thing after a while.

[impik]

26. No, he is weak and stupid and a wimp. Also, he's black.

[budkin]

28. He's been trapped for near 2 years... and not getting out until his term is over

[Aramchek]

31. his second term

[wiggs]

33. Not only will they use the deficit against Obama in the elections, but not having

the 700 billion from letting cuts for wealthy expire, there will be less money for other programs that Obama wants. Every single upcoming battle we will hear the same thing and we will see the same tactics.

Don't get it.

[wiggs]

34. another way he loses...tax cuts for the wealthy will result in disproportionately large donations

to the gop. They have larger, wealthier donors. The GOP is perceived as giving the average millionaire another $103,000 in tax cuts. How much of that will go back to GOP coffers??