14 new House Polls...

[WI_DEM]

(There's some good news here and some not so good...)

THE U.S. HOUSE

Connecticut-01 (Merriman River Group):
Rep. John Larson (D) 56%, Ann Brickley (R) 38%


Connecticut-02 (Merriman River Group):
Rep. Joe Courtney (D) 57%, Janet Peckinpaugh (R) 38%


Connecticut-03 (Merriman River Group):
Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D) 56%, Jerry Labriola (R) 37%


Florida-25 (Susquehanna--R):
David Rivera (R) 44%, Joe Garcia (D) 43%, Others 8%


Georgia-02 (Landmark--R):
Mike Keown (R) 50%, Rep. Sanford Bishop (D) 46%


Georgia-07 (Landmark--R):
Rob Woodall (R) 60%, Doug Heckman (D) 30%


Georgia-08 (Landmark--R):
Austin Scott (R) 53%, Rep. Jim Marshall (D) 39%


Michigan-07 (National Research--R):
Tim Walberg (R) 49%, Rep. Mark Schauer (D) 36%


New Jersey-12 (Monmouth):
Rep. Rush Holt (D) 51%, Scott Sipprelle (R) 43%


New York-23 (Siena):
Rep. Bill Owens (D) 40%, Matt Doheny (R) 37%, Doug Hoffman (C) 15%


North Carolina-02 (Civitas/SurveyUSA):
Renee Ellmers (R) 46%, Rep. Bobby Etheridge (D) 41%, Others 6%


Pennsylvania-10 (Critical Insights):
Tom Marino (R) 47%, Rep. Chris Carney (D) 38%


Pennsylvania-11 (Critical Insights):
Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D) 47%, Lou Barletta (R) 39%


Virginia-05 (SurveyUSA):
Rob Hurt (R) 51%, Rep. Tom Perriello (D) 43%, Others 2%


THE ANALYSIS: On paper, this would qualify as a pretty bad day for the blue team. But most of the bad data has caveats attached: the SUSA poll in VA-05 shows a marked improvement for Perriello, who has been routinely down by twice that margin in SUSA's assessment of the race. The Michigan poll that shows Schauer down double digits is pretty dubious, given that two public polls in the past week have given Schauer a lead in the mid-single digits.

Critical Insights is somewhat upside down in the Keystone State, becoming the only pollster showing Paul Kanjorski out in front, but showing Chris Carney (who has led in some public polling) down badly to Republican Tom Marino. SurveyUSA brings bad news in North Carolina, where Bob Etheridge has not recovered.

There is some good news for Dems here: both Rush Holt (NJ-12) and John Larson (CT-01) seem to have repelled surprising challenges, while Doug Hoffman, even from the sidelines, continues to haunt the GOP in upstate New York. And in Florida, a Republican pollster only has David Rivera holding onto the GOP-held 25th district by a single point

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