Two new Generic Congressional polls (Gallup & Rasmussen) - Little change.

[FBaggins]

Gallup's RV results shift both parties up a point (retaining the 3-point gap), while the two LV estimates each saw the gap close by 1% (12% and 17% respectivly)

Note that Gallup appears to be running a two-week rolling dataset, so half of last week's data remains in this week's release. That's a pretty long sampling period, so it's unlikely to properly reflect and short-term moves over the last couple weeks.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/143576/Republicans-Maintain-Strength-Among-Likely-Voters.aspx

Rasmussen shifts from a 3-point republican advantage to an 8-point advantage, but they've been a bit volatile (especially considering their sample size). I suspect that both reflect an unchanged 5-6 point gap.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot

[FrenchieCat]

1. Polls, Polls, good to Post.....

the more one posts, the worse one feels,
the worse one feels, the more one may not vote,
the more one may not vote, the worse one feels,
so let's have polls every minute of the hour,
and every hour of the day till forever!


(Use similar chant as you'd use for this oldie...

Beans, Beans, good to eat,
the more you eat, the more you fart,
the more you fart, the better you feel,
the better you feel, the more you eat,
so let's have beans for every meal! )

[FBaggins]

2. Some people work harder when their team is down and the clock is running out.

They're more likely to donate money and/or time... which improves turnout.

I think the notion that people just get depressedand decide it's not worth voting... is just RW wishful thinking. Sorry.

[demwing]

4. Why would a poll change the way you feel about voting?

I can see a poll predicting a landslide in your favor making you a little lazy, but not the opposite.

[tritsofme]

3. If Republicans actually got 56% of the House vote, that would probably translate

to near triple digit losses. This number just isn't realistic.

Looks like last week's Rasmussen number was probably an outlier. I agree the race probably stands at R+ 5 or 6, that's about where the RCP average is.

[BlueIdaho]

5. Why do people care about generic polls?

Just asking...

[FBaggins]

6. They give you a snapshot of the larger race.

No news organization can afford to poll 100 House races (as well as dozens of full
states) on an ongoing basis.

They poll more than just the horserace. Maybe you find that republicans have a lead on the issue of outsourcing jobs. That could tell you where to focus your attention ( an issue that should break our way, so more ability to change minds).

There are also hundreds of state legislative seats in play... With no real way to poll them.

[Politics_Guy25]

7. Polls were deadly accurate in 2008 GE and primary

They are not just numbers invented out of thin air. They were accurate in the Obama/Clinton and Obama/Mccain race. Our one hope this time is since the LV models are so skwered, perhaps the RV model better reflects what will actually happen in which we are close to tied or ahead.

[FrenchieCat]

8. Sure. That's why McCain ran his ass to Pennsylvania when the polls

told him it would be close, and he had a chance.

Polls manipulate. period.

[Cosmocat]

9. the PA polls were NOT "deadly accurate" ...

and the noise from the MSM made PA appear a lot more in play than it was ... The horse race factor and the giving the GOP hope factor were in play ...

Going into the election the RCP average of polls was BO 51.0 and McCain 43.7 ... Again, even at that, it was not close, but all we heard all election season was how BO had problems with Pa voters ....

The final tally ... BO 54.7 and McCain 44.3 ...

Yes, the polls called the win, but the polls were not deadly accurate ...

The same lack of accuracy has existed in the other two big state wide races the last four years ... The polls showed Rendell and Casey winning, but they undershot both the overall vote percentage for the dem both times and the overall margin ... There WERE a lot more accurate on the R vote percentage ...

No doubt, the Ds are going to lose seats here, going to happen ... But, even based on past elections they seem a lot more in tune with the Rs than the Ds ...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. Well, There Are Margins Of Errors And Confidence Levels

Here's a link to pollster predictions regarding the 08 presidential race and the actual results:



http://electoralmap.net/pollsters/index.php


They align very nicely.


Frankly, the discussions here remind me of the discussions on right wing sites during the 06 and 08 elections. The polls were skewed. They were polling the wrong people. The only polls that mattered were the polls on election day... Et cetera...