MPR Poll of MN Gov--Dayton (D) up by double digits, "dems have woken from their summer slumber"

[WI_DEM]

St. Paul, Minn. — A new Minnesota Public Radio News-Humphrey Institute poll shows Democratic gubernatorial candidate Mark Dayton with a significant and growing lead over Republican Tom Emmer.

A month ago, the poll showed Dayton and Emmer deadlocked at 34 percent each. But the latest survey shows Dayton with an 11 percentage point lead over Emmer -- 38 to 27 percent.

Independence Party candidate Tom Horner, who had 13 percent a month ago, now has 16 percent according to the new poll.

So what's changed?

"The big story in September is that the Democrats have woken up from their summer slumber," said University of Minnesota political science professor Larry Jacobs, who oversaw the poll.

http://minnesota.publicradio.org/display/web/2010/09/29/mpr-hhh-poll-dayton-leads-emmer/

[a kennedy]

1. Was just going to post this too....

great news for MN.... and way to go dems!! :applause: :patriot: (edit to correct spelling)

[Bitwit1234]

2. Razzyputz still put Emmer ahead.

[saltpoint]

3. Good news to see support for Dayton in this one,

and even better that a far-Right kook like Emmer is falling behind.

Great news.

[FredStembottom]

4. Missed this yesterday.

Great news! Happy news!

[FBaggins]

5. There was no "slumber" to wake from

and no evidence of "waking".

They're basing this on the difference in Democratic support in their last poll (34%) and the current one (38%)... but really even the 38% is on the low end of the polling spectrum. I don't know whether their process is different (or they ask different questions), but they're the only ones showing Democratic support as that low.

Support for Dayton has actually remained pretty consistently around 40% or a bit higher since May. The real change has been the relative proportion of support for the other two candidates. When Horner's support is relatively high, the gap between Dayton and Emmer opens up... and visa-versa. In almost every other state, this would be a potential problem... as I's tend to under-perform on election day. In MN that won't be a problem. 40% is enough to win this race pretty comfortably.