Van Hollen Predicts Republicans Won't Take Over House in 2010

[ccharles000]

The latest mid-term election prediction from the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, Rep. Chris Van Hollen of Maryland: Democrats are going to have some tough contests in 2010, that doesn't mean Republicans are going to take over the House.

Jennifer Bendery of Roll Call reports that Van Hollen told Thursday's Bloomberg Washington Summit: "People who think this is a redux of 1994 are totally misreading the current situation."

That, of course, is the year that Democrats lost their majority in the House for the first time in four decades.

Given that recent polling shows that just 20 percent of Americans identify themselves as Republicans, a drop of 8 percentage points from the 2008 elections, according to Van Hollen. "To suggest that the Republicans are going to run to the rescue of the American people who think they're the answer, at least as we sit here a year out, is very wrong," he said.

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/eyeon2010/2009/11/van-hollen-predicts-republican.html

[Tempest]

1. The GOP will be splintered in 2010

The lunatic fringe of the GOP will get birthers and death panel candidates winning in primaries in districts they can't carry.

NY-23 is just a taste of things to come in 2010, IMHO.


A perfect example is here in the interior valley of California. The old guard GOP in the way of Kevin McCarthy (a Bill Thomas protege) is in trouble with the conservative base because of his support for Scozzafava in NY-23. The conservative base sees McCarthy as a Judas for backing a socially moderate candidate.

[Ozymanithrax]

2. I will add that the GOP will be busy protecting seats if they are that splintered.

Democrats will have a problem if the base refuses to get off its ass. Even a splintered party can win if the otherside doesn't show up at the polls.

[LiberalFighter]

6. A bit hard for them to mobilize when they have that much in-fighting amongst themselves.

Those teabaggers and 9/12s aren't happy with a lot of Republican office holders.

And your right that Democrats will have a problem. IMO that it won't be as severe as in 94.

What I will enjoy will be Republicans having to campaign in primaries because they will have opponents. Which means taking time away from other activities. And reduces their campaign funding for the General Election.

[Hutzpa]

3. It's nice to see them having wet dreams

:evilgrin:

[ProgressOnTheMove]

4. There just needs to be a big get out the vote ad campaign high turn out favors the Democratic party.

So it's all about turning up. Sure the Stupak thing is problem and he might not of done all he can for GLBT but the main factor we have to keep that window of opportunity open as long as possible. Then wuth more seats the likes of Stupak will have less influence.

[opihimoimoi]

5. Only 4 years ago, the GOP sat on a pile of SUPPORT...only to lose the momotarium as the results of

their Horrible Stewardship came to pass...

Bush/GOP screwed up big time

Now they pay a price

The Peeps out there are Pissed off.

At the GOP

No Mop, No Hope for them GOPiacs

[frylock]

7. republicans shouldn't have been runnin' with the devil

[yellowcanine]

8. Plus the Goopers picked the low hanging fruit in 1994.

The House seats going Dem now are part of a long term trend - doesn't mean there won't be setbacks but probably not nearly enough to turn the House back over to the GOP.

Should also mention that the Post Office scandal was working against the Democrats in 1994.
And the GOP played the term limits card in 1994 as well. Unlikely they can pull that one off again, having subsequently and conveniently ignored term limits for the most part.

[Clio the Leo]

9. They have tough road ahead of them......

The Democrats won two seats of Congress this year and the President barely batted an eyelash.

Another article on the matter.....
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125495123152271693.html