Ohio Governor: Strickland Trails By 3 In Internals

[WI_DEM]

Strickland Trails By 3 In Internals
September 16, 2010 5:07 PM | Permalink | Comments (0) | Share This

By Steven Shepard
Two public polls released over the past 24 hours paint a bleak picture of Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland's (D) re-election prospects, but recent surveys conducted for the Strickland camp show Strickland and former Rep. John Kasich (R) locked in a more competitive race.

According to the most recent Strickland campaign tracking poll, conducted over the past 2 weeks and obtained by Hotline On Call, Strickland trails by Kasich by 3 points, 48% to 45%.

A CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corp. poll, conducted Sept. 10-14 and released Wednesday, showed Kasich ahead by 7 points, while a Quinnipiac Univ. poll, conducted Sept. 9-14 and released Thursday, showed Kasich ahead by a whopping 17 points. Kasich's lead in both public polls was outside the margin of error.

In addition to their internal polling, the Strickland camp is also touting the release of 2 new TV ads today that focus on their candidate's job-creation efforts

The Strickland campaign tracking poll was a rolling sample of two surveys from the Feldman Group, one conducted Sept. 7-10, and the other Sept. 12-14. A total of 1,200 voters were polled, for a margin of error of +/- 2.8%.

http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2010/09/strickland_trai.php#more

p.s.
Daily Kos had a comment on the Q-poll out today showing Strickland down by 17 (which is way off, imo):
OH-Gov: Q poll disastrous for Dems, but is there a slight caveat?
Only rarely do I look at the demographic details of a poll to try to explain away a particularly ugly (or particularly good) data point, but this poll out today from Quinnipiac merits such treatment. The toplines have got a lot of attention today: the poll shows Republican John Kasich leading Democratic Governor Ted Strickland by a 54-37 margin. What caught my attention was the partisan breakdown. Strickland did marginally worse with Democrats than Kasich did with Republicans, but the differences were not massive. Kasich enjoyed a 23-point edge with Indies. So, how in the world did they get a seventeen-point lead overall? Clearly, there was an issue with either GOP oversampling, Democratic undersampling, or...well...both.

Applying the 2006 exit poll demographics for Ohio, the margin was halved to eight points. Even using the best GOP parameters over the last several election cycles (2004: R 40 D 35 I 25, which was a better breakdown by party than was even seen in 1994), the margin is cut to less than fourteen percentage points. Not that it is anything to write home about, but clearly, Quinnipiac is seeing the most stratified electorate by party in recent history.

[Deep13]

1. I think Ohio D.s are going to lose badly.

A couple months ago I figured Strickland and Betty Sutton (OH-13) where shoe-ins and that the Senate and Boccieri (OH-16) would be fights. Now it looks like Fisher, Boccieri and Strickland have had it and Sutton is a fight.

[Botany]

2. Strickland should win but Fisher will get his ass kicked (as well he should)

n/t

[Deep13]

4. Strickland SHOULD win easily, but I doubt he will.

Too bad, too. I would have liked the possibility of a judicial appointment someday.

Fisher is a dud. I knew he would be. I voted for Brunner in the primary. This will be the third state-wide election he's lost since '94.

[Botany]

9. Fisher is a nasty piece of work and some of the stunts he has pulled ...

.... really stink such as getting a grand jury to indict a potential rival on a b.s. charge or having
people who worked for him try to get in the 2010 democratic senate primary to try to split
Brunner's vote. I will vote for him but he will get stomped into the dust in the general election ....
he has pissed off many people.

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

3. It is amazing to me that only after 4 years of the criminal enterprise that the Ohio Repuke Party

ran, people are willing to go back to that shit.

[jefferson_dem]

5. Ouch.

Whenever "internals" are made public that show that candidate losing ... you know he/she is in trouble.

Sucks too because I was hoping Strickland would be re-elected and we could flip the Repug senate seat. Both are looking virtually impossible right now.

[Imajika]

8. Lol yeah, seriously...

Never, ever, ever trust the internal polls that are actually released anyway. They have a tiny bit of value if there are no independent polls to look to. They can also be a useful tool to see how campaigns are trying to spin things.

And the fact that this "internal" poll was released just after the other disaster polls that painted such a bleak picture.....Things are not looking good in Ohio.

[ellie]

6. I just signed

up to volunteer for Strickland and the rest of the Ohio Dems.

[greymattermom]

7. working America

Is out canvassing all over Ohio and have been for months. They have the lists and will be contacting labor supporters to vote for Strickland. My daughter has walked hundreds of miles for this. Let's hope that their efforts work.

[golfguru]

10. It's the economy in OH, stupid

Ohio leads in unemployment in the top five states. Change is inevitable.

[HughBeaumont]

11. "Strickland SUCKS!! So I'm gonna vote someone who's gonna suck even WORSE!!!"

Like it's somehow Strickland's fault that he has to deal with the same kind of economy 49 other states are dealing with?

I don't really see how voters in this state think implimenting failed economic actions ("CUT TAXEZ@!!") is going to cure what ails it. You have to spend and update and modernize nearly EVERYTHING. THAT will create jobs that will stay HERE. Kascich is the same old neo-clown asshole who will only benefit his rich buddies.

Granted, having an obstructionist Rethug state senate doesn't help matters either.

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

12. The fucking pukes bankrupted the state pensions in that coin scheme. It's

unfuckingbelievable that these assholes are gonna get back in power.

[golfguru]

13. Not many democrats will vote republican because

that is like cutting your ears off to spite your nose.
However it is inevitable that people are less likely to vote
this year because they are demoralized.