A look at the '10 Governors Races

[WI_DEM]

This is how I see the race for Governor as of today based on polls & past election results & anecdotal evidence:


Safe/likely Dem: Arkansas, New Hampshire, New York, Colorado, Connecticut, Maryland, Hawaii

Leaning Dem: FL, MA, MN, VT

Safe/likely GOP: NE, WY, Alabama, Michigan, Oklahoma, PA, Arizona, SC, SD, TN, Alaska, ID, KS, UT, IL, IA, NV

Leaning GOP: OH, ME, GA

Toss-up: CA, NM, OR, RI, TX, WI

Dems pick up GOP Governors in: CT, HA, FL, MN, VT
GOP pick up Dems Governors in: MI, PA, TN, IL, IA, OH, ME

Five states are toss-ups (though polls in all of them except RI favor the GOP--but by small margins and given their make up, for instance CA is a blue state w/ unpopular GOP governor yet Brown is conceded to be behind, but it is conceivable he could win given the overall Dem make-up of the state).

As of today I show a net gain of 2 governorships for GOP, but if Dems can get it together in the toss-ups (CA, NM, OR, RI, TX, WI) Dems could actually gain ground. Currently GOP controls CA, RI & TX governorships and Dems control NM, OR & WI--Dems could end up gaining a governorship or staying even in this cycle.

[Cognitive_Resonance]

1. It's hard to imagine CA a toss-up, but the current polls are what they are. Not sure TX is quite

a toss-up, but I really hope White can pull it off. He's got a great shot.

I appreciate your updates. They're always a good read.

[WI_DEM]

2. Lots of undecideds in Texas plus Gov good hair is well below 50% in almost every poll.

[Joanne98]

3. Not in Ohio. We're going to kick their asses!

[Tippy]

4. You may be cutting the TN race short...

"GOP pick up Dems Governors in: MI, PA, TN, IL, IA, OH, ME"

TN is a toss-up.....I believe this is true because...The Democratic Candidate has been endorsed by many influential Tennesseans, and I have never heard a bad word spoken about his Daddy, Ned Mc... who was very popular with voters both Dem and Rep.

[WI_DEM]

5. I hope it is.