DE-Sen: Biden Up 5 On Castle

[ccharles000]

Susquehanna Polling and Research (R) (11/10-15, registered voters, 4/27-30 in parentheses):

Beau Biden (D): 45 (34)
Mike Castle (R): 40 (55)
Undecided: 8 (8)
(MoE: ±3.4%)

Mike Castle may be rasping to himself, Lloyd Bridges-style, "Looks like I picked the wrong week to run for Senate." And Beau Biden, who's been strangely coy about whether or not to run for Senate since his return from Iraq, may suddenly feel motivated to declare his intentions.

Susquehanna does a fair amount of Republican internal polling, so unless they're trying some weird messing-with-Biden's-head psy-ops, that makes the finding of a 5-point Biden lead all the more surprising. The last time they looked at the race was April, when Castle had a 21-point lead instead. Between this and R2K's findings last month that the race was a dead heat, it may be time for the rest of the punditocracy to re-evaluate whether this is really the GOP's best shot at a pickup.

UPDATE: The full memo is available now, and Susequehanna attributes this shift in large part to Castle's "no" vote on health care reform, which occurred shortly before the poll went into the field and apparently didn't play well with the state's left-leaning electorate. They also point to Castle polling better among Republicans (72-17) than Biden does among Democrats (65-21), but given Delaware's sizable Democratic registration advantage and a narrowing Castle edge among indies (42-37, down from 55-28 in April), that's enough to put Biden over the top.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/5910/desen-biden-up-5-on-castle

[the other one]

1. Castle won't run for Senate

unless he knows he can win. He is comfortable in the House. He will wait for Biden to declare his intentions first. If Biden runs for Senate, Castle stays in the House; if Biden challenges Castle, Castle will run for Senate.

[ccharles000]

2. he is running

Rep. Mike Castle (R-Del.) will be running for Vice President Joe Biden’s old Senate seat in Delaware, according to two GOP sources connected to the congressman, instantly giving Republicans the opportunity to flip a traditionally-Democratic seat in their column.

Castle will be making a formal announcement at noon in his hometown of Wilmington. Castle had been debating whether to run for higher office, or retire after serving nine terms in the House.

“I’ve been thinking about this for some time every since it was obvious Joe was going to be leaving the Senate. And as I went through my various meetings – town halls, all the different events and talking to so many people, I realized there was a lot of support for doing this,” Castle said in his announcement speech.

“It has never been more important for Delaware to have the strongest and most experienced leadership to represent us in Washington. We are best served by an experienced, independent voice and that is why I am announcing my intention to run for the United States Senate.”

http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/1009/Castle_running_for_the_Senate.html

This was in October.

[Robbins]

3. De-Senate

So the pundits were wrong and others(me Included) were right.Castle has voted against the stimulas,
and Health Care reform.Obama with Joe Biden as his running mate won the state 62 to 37.The best
showing by a Democrat In the state in the last 20 years(even though It has be solid Democratic state
since Clinton won it In 1992) just because a Republican call themself a moderate doesn't always
mean they always fool the voters.

[Clio the Leo]

4. The President has dropped Beau's name a few times lately...

.... you know what that means. ;)

[last_texas_dem]

5. Good news

Castle is one of the few Congressional Repubs who isn't completely repulsive and seems popular enough in DE to make this a close race, but this is definitely good news to see a Biden this early on.

ON EDIT: Should be "to see a Biden *lead* this early on," but I don't really mind seeing a Biden in general, either. haha