WaPo poll: President's approval at 50 percent

[ProSense]

The President's approval is a 50 percent

1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president? Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat?

Aprove: 50%
Disapprove: 47%

And the big question that WaPo is hyping as 58 percent:

3. How much confidence do you have in (ITEM) to make the right decisions for the country's future - a great deal of confidence, a good amount, just some or none at all?

Obama

Great deal 24%
Good amt 19%
Just some 28%
None 29%

How the hell can you lump "just some" and "none"?

Via Greg Sargent

* The new Washington Post/ABC News poll, coming only four months before the midterms, is grim for Obama and Dems. Key finding: Nearly six in ten have little or no confidence in Obama to make the right decisions for the country.

* Also: Only 43 percent approve of his handling of the economy, versus 54 percent who disapprove.

* And: Fifty one percent say it's more important for the GOP to control Congress, to "act as a check" on Obama's policies, while only 43% say it's more important to have Dems in charge.

* But: Dems hold an edge in which party is more trusted on the economy, 42-34.

Obviously the majority of poll respondents lean right. Which Democrat of Democratic leaning Independent would say that?

Also, by lumping "just some" and "none" together, WaPo's results indicate that 78 percent have no confidence in Republicans, which makes you wonder why they would want Repbulicans as a check on Obama's policies?


I should add these charts to my signature:



link





link

[DCBob]

1. Media hype to attract eyeballs..

pathetic.

[Beetwasher]

2. It's An Egregious And Flagrant Piece Of Propoganda Being Pushed By The Corp. Media

Since when have they EVER used this "confidence" measure? They just made it up to bash Obama.

[still_one]

3. To ignore the fact that Obama has lost confidence from may progressives is ignoring reality

From Healthcare and Financial Reform, to the Afghanistan war, many groups to the left are disillusioned with how the administration has been handling these issues

[ProSense]

6. Ignoring reality is

ignoring that the significant drop in the President's numbers is being driven by Repubicans and right-leaning Independents:




All President's experience some losses from their inaugural highs.

[tekisui]

7. How can you tell the Independents in that chart are 'right-leaning'?

[ProSense]

11. Do you think

the remaining 38 percent are majority right-leaning?

[tekisui]

15. You are making an assumption that cannot be verified from the data.

If you notice, the Independent approval has dips and spurts that occur, ahem, independent form the republican trend.

[ProSense]

20. It's called deductive reasoning

Since the right is extremely unhappy with the President, it's likely that flight among Independents is by a majority of those leaning right. You are trying to claim there is no basis for this, but that would assume that the majority of Independents who disapprove of the President are progressive/Democrats, leaving the 38 percent comprised of mostly right-leaning Independents? How likely is that? Or do you think the majority of Independents are Democrats and Progressives?

[tekisui]

24. I am not making assumptions on the data, you are.

I am not making claims that cannot be backed-up. You deductive reasoning, is not supported by the data. If you had a poll of Independents that broke down their support among the three types of Indys (Democratic-leaning Indys, Pure Indys, and Republican-leaning), you could make that deduction.


Looking closer at the numbers Democratic support has fallen more than repub support. Dems fell from 90 to 81 percent, or 9 points. Repubs fell from 20 to 12 percent, or 8 points.

It is not evident where the 18 point drop in Independents came from. It could be any of the Indy types that have decreased support.

You cannot verify your claim that it is the right-leaning.

[still_one]

13. You can't. Progressives/liberals will be in both the Democratic and Independent numbers

and liberals and progressives in those groups I would think account for at least 10 points

This administration, and the Democratic party as a whole have a much more difficult problem than the republicans, because the party today rarely stands together on many issues. In contrast the republicans are pretty lock and step

[lafayetto]

28. Good point

Obama beat McCain among independents 52-44%, and I'm sure if we go back a few months ago, we would see that most independents approved of President Obama's job. So independents are a fickle bunch. Even if they were leaning right, they will lean left again sooner or later. then right. Then left. Etc.

[still_one]

10. Even by those gallup numbers, assuming that progressives make up

groups in the Democratic and Independent demographic, I would suspect that it would account for at least 10 points of that drop, and most likely more

[ProSense]

12. Sure there could be some Independent progressives, but

among the decline in Democratic support could also be conservative Democrats. Remember many of their elected officials are opposing the President's agenda.

The point is that his approval among Democrats is still very high.

[still_one]

17. I think 10 points is not an unrealistic assumption for disillusioned progressives that make

up independents and Democrats

They won't vote for republicans, but if they sit out an election that would be bad

Comparing past approvals of presidents is interesting, but in my view sheds very little light on the future

If you lose by an inch or a mile it is still a lost

I have no idea who will win or lose, but I am disturbed by the shift in the country as a whole toward the right

I know a large amount is due to the economy, but a large part has to be due to the fact that the Democrats do not sell themselves well, and usually go on the defensive when they should be going on the offensive

[Donnachaidh]

14. yeah, it's got absolutely NOTHING to do with 38 people a MINUTE losing benefits

And Social Security is under attack from a group put together by the White House.

yeah, not at all. :rofl:

[still_one]

18. I would venture to say that most people right now are unaware of the attack on social security

however, if the Democrats compromise on social security, they will be history for a long time, because they will lose their base

[WI_DEM]

23. "progressives" are hardly a big enough group to cause his overall numbers to go down

most polls show that it is independents who voted for him in 2008 who are concerned about the deficit (not wanting to spend more money) who are deserting him.

[karynnj]

4. Thanks Prosense!

The WP is entirely dishonest in the way they are spinning this. There is NO justification for adding "just some" ass negative. I saw ABC this morning - saying that about 60% don't have confidence in Obama. Even these distorted numbers don't justify that comment!

This also seems to be yet another example of polling using a question not used before for earlier administrations. Here, the categories are kind of weird - the first three are all to some degree positive. What would be more normal, is to balance the wording so half are positive, half are negative - occasionally with a neutral one. (In technical discussions, whether a neutral one is added is something that has been fought over. Excluding it allows splitting people into approve/disapprove and makes people come down on one side or the other.)

The interesting thing in your last chart is that there does NOT seem to be a really strong correlation between the change in the number of seats and the President's approval rating. I had always thought there was more impact.

[godai]

5. But is it fair to lump 'some' with 'none'?

It's like lumping yes and no. The WP headline is '6 in 10 Americans lack faith in Obama'. They get this be combining 'just some' with 'none'. This is classic poll tilting. Another way to look at the same results is that more than 70% have some confidence in Obama.

[kennedyphan]

21. Yeah, that was a stretch

The WAPO wanted an anti-Obama story so they had to use this weird methodology.

[jenmito]

8. Thank you for the breakdown of the "just some" and "none." When I saw how MSNBC was pimping the

% of those who had "some/none" confidence in Obama to make the right decisions for the country's future, I called BS and said it is TOTALLY dishonest to lump in "some" with "none." 71% have a great deal/good amount/just some" confidence in Obama, but of course they chose to lump in the "just some" with "none." Their agenda has never been more transparent.

[otohara]

9. Chris Jansing Said They Were in the Toilet

or something similar about 30 minutes ago.

She grates

[jenmito]

16. I just emailed to Chuck Todd (and I know he reads my emails because he has replied about 6 times):

PLEASE report poll numbers more accurately/honestly!

Regarding the WaPo/ABC poll, It was TOTALLY dishonest to lump in "some" with "none" regarding how much confidence people have in Obama/Dems/Repubs to make the right decisions for the country's future.

You could've just as easily reported it as 71% have a great deal/good amount/some" confidence in Obama, but you chose to lump in the "just some" with "none." I expect that of Fox-not MSNBC.

Please either report the exact breakdown of the results instead of making the results look worse than they are.
----------
Let's see if he responds.

[Spazito]

19. Geez, does that smell like media desperation or what!

Reporting all negative Obama all the time isn't getting the job done so they move beyond that to gross lies. That's not gonna work either.

So, 29% of the public have no confidence in the President. That leaves 71% that do to a greater and lesser degree. Wow, those numbers look damn good to me.

[WI_DEM]

22. The media is trying to write it's own story--and influence the sheeple.

[JanetLovesObama]

25. It's the Dems that

I am disgusted with. I expect the Repukes to slam the President but I am damn sick and tired of the Dems doing it. You people are going to end up with President Palin if you don't stop it. How about SUPPORTING the President instead of acting like 2-yr olds kicking and screaming because you haven't gotten everything you wanted in the first 18 months.
:mad:

[WI_DEM]

26. Obama has a net +3 approval rating in this poll plus in Gallup tracking

where it's 48/45

[Clear Blue Sky]

27. BS poll

[Number23]

29. Great info. Thanks for posting

[Catshrink]

30. That high, eh?

[Moochy]

31. I hope they are not paying too much attention to this..

[Arkana]

32. Short answer: None of the respondents know what the fuck they're talking about.

[Thrill]

33. Obama is Teflon even moreso than Reagan

Just going by all the negative media. Its a surprise he isn't in the 30s right now