Allan Lichtman's 13 Keys Predict Obama Will Get Re-elected!!

[BluegrassDem]

http://www.aolnews.com/politics/article/professor-allan-lichtmans-13-keys-predict-obama-will-get-re-elected/19550593


In an interview with AOL News, Lichtman said he devised his formula after studying election outcomes from 1860 to 1980 and has correctly predicted the outcomes of the last seven presidential contests. "No other system has come close to that record," he said.

"Politicians hate the keys because you can't manipulate them," Lichtman said. "It's not campaigning that counts. It's governing that counts."

Using the formula he laid out in his book, "Keys to the White House," Lichtman bases his prediction on 13 conditions, or keys. When five or fewer are false, the incumbent party candidate wins. When six or more are false, the other party candidate wins.

Lichtman considers passage of health care reform a positive key for Democrats, one of nine he said that favor the incumbent party and its president. He said Obama has four keys turned against him, two short of the "fatal six negative keys" that would doom a second term. In his rating, he assumes Democrats will lose seats in Congress this fall, the economy will remain sluggish and there will be no cataclysmic setbacks in Afghanistan.

Here's how Lichtman breaks down the keys to Obama's political future:

• KEY 1: Party mandate. After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. (FALSE)
• KEY 2: Contest. There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination. (TRUE)
• KEY 3: Incumbency. The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president. (TRUE)
• KEY 4: Third party. There is no significant third-party or independent campaign. (TRUE)
• KEY 5: Short-term economy. The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. (TRUE)
• KEY 6: Long-term economy. Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. (FALSE)
• KEY 7: Policy change. The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. (TRUE)
• KEY 8: Social unrest. There is no sustained social unrest during the term. (TRUE)
• KEY 9: Scandal. The administration is untainted by major scandal. (TRUE)
• KEY 10: Foreign/military failure. The administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. (TRUE)
• KEY 11: Foreign/military success. The administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. (FALSE)
• KEY 12: Incumbent charisma. The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. (FALSE)
• KEY 13: Challenger charisma: The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. (TRUE)

[geek tragedy]

1. So, if the Pugs nominate someone with charisma and the

economy is in recession, Obama loses.

Joy.

[vaberella]

11. Maybe...but unlikely. Palin is their most charismatic, although batty. n/t

[Hardrada]

2. Did someone say Alan Keyes?

[Ter]

3. I disagree with Key 8, there is unrest

Also, it is unclear if 13 is true or false. The challenger hasn't been selected yet.

[bigdarryl]

8. he basis unrest like the civil rights days when blacks were hosed down

and there were nation wide riots.Nothing like that is going on in this country.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

4. Alan is like the Octopus!

Alan is a good guy!

[Stardust]

5. Key 12 - Obama still has charisma, if nothing else, imo. (TRUE) nt

[bigdarryl]

9. thats the only key I disagree with him on he gave Obama that

key in the 2008 election I don't know why he has taken it away with 2012

[unblock]

10. he has not displayed his charisma lately, though to be fair, he is not campaigning

for himself, anyway, at the moment.

the standard for charisma is reagan (and for national hero, ike). reagan certainly neauseated me, but i recognized his political effectiveness on the masses. obama clearly had it in 2008, but it's hard to see it at the moment. but then again, reagan himself didn't display much charisma at this point in his first term, although getting shot worked in his favor (that sounds awful, but ya know what i mean).

i think the jury's still out on this one, obama can certainly regain this one with active campaigning. perhaps lichtman just gave this to the challenger so as not to be accused of bias -- he didn't need this to clearly show an obama re-election anyway.

[Awsi Dooger]

6. Back fitted systems run into unforeseen new variables

At that point they are adjusted to fit. As soon as this formula fails, Lichtman will tinker with it instead of accepting 7 of 8, or 10 of 11, whatever.

I've done similar dozens of times with sports formulas, including stats that project the Super Bowl winner. Rushing attempts are now less vital and pass defense more significant. For a few years I stubbornly stuck with the old parameters, failing to acknowledge a changing world, and rules.

In other words, this is hardly concrete. The traditional references indeed favor Obama but the unemployment rate possibly throws a wrench into long standing rationale. A sustained 9+ number may not technically qualify as a recession per #5 but independents begin to solidify against you. Besides, too many items on the list are subjective.

Obama's greatest boost is as incumbent with his party in power only one term, a natural benefit of a doubt. If a fellow Democrat had preceded Obama, he'd be all but certain to lose in 2012.

[geek tragedy]

7. Not to mention imprecise variables and criteria.

Charisma is a subjective determination. In terms of voter behavior, unemployment is probably a much more precise benchmark than "in a recession."