Please don't take my posting this as an attack on President Obama. I'm just very curious about who he'll run against and defeat in 2012. Please don't assume that my interest in who the GOP nominee is anything else. The fact is that to get a 2nd term, he'll have to defeat whoever the GOP nominates, and who that person is, will determine how easily he wins re-election in 2012. I know it ticks people off on here to mention Palin at all but the signs are growing that she will be the GOP nominee. She's just 3-4 points back of Romnney and Huckabee nationally and ahead or at worst tied in GOP Primary polls in huge states such as TX and PA.
Let the record show that I despise Sarah Palin and think that she would be equally or worse than George W. Bush if at all possible.
Here's the article's relevant portions:
Assuming that the race is then reduced to Palin and Romney, the next critical state primary is South Carolina. At that point, I don't think the specifics really matter. The fact is that the Republican Party of 2012 is not going to nominate a Mormon as its standard bearer. And the more important fact is that the base of the Republican Party doesn't just favor Sarah Palin, they love her. She is their standard bearer. And they will not -- this time around -- be denied.
As the Republican avalanche of 2010 builds -- and I saw a poll the other day of a Democratic-leaning state Senate district on Long Island where the "right track" (8%)/"wrong direction" (83%) was unlike anything I had ever seen -- Palin has smartly positioned herself as the champion of the conservative counter-revolution. By December, she will almost certainly be the de facto front-runner for the GOP presidential nomination.
By the time the Establishment GOP wakes up to this reality, it may be too late for them to do anything about it. Their view of Palin is that she's useful to the party because she can help keep "the Tea Party types inside the tent." And maybe she can serve coffee while she's at it. Palin's view is that (1) "the Tea Party types" are the party, (2) she is their standard bearer and (3) anyone who thinks "the Tea Party types" are there to lick envelopes and knock on doors should think again. They're there, she asserts, to take back their party and to take back their country.
What this means is two things: (1) the pressure on former Florida Governor Jeb Bush to run for the GOP presidential nomination will increase as the year moves along, and (2) the likelihood of a strong independent party candidacy increases as Palin's support within the GOP broadens. Oh, and it also means one other thing: President Obama is not doomed.
Link:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2010/07/12/palin_cranks_up_2012_campaign.htmlFWIW, I think that Jeb is politically toxic just 4 years after his brother's reign of terror.
The article is a bit too far right-wing in it's analysis but since the right wing will determine the GOP nominee, I think that's fine.