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Setting aside HCR, BP, and some of the other stuff (which I agree with you on), I don't think McChrystal likes anyone but McChrystal. He seems to have an ego problem -- He doesn't think he has to answer to anyone but himself. I think -- and I could be wrong -- he liked operating under boooosh/cheeeney because he could basically get away with whatever he wanted to get away with, such as the Pat Tillman thing, torture, etc.
And again, it's my understanding that the whole "surge" thing was pretty much McChrystal's idea, which Obama went along with -- it was, after all, part of his campaign that he would wind down Iraq and focus on Afghanistan -- but it's not going quite the way McChrystal seemed to think it would. So rather than taking the blame for his own shortcomings, McChrystal is blaming Obama for not being engaged or interested. First of all, saying something like that is not good form in general (pun intended). Second, it's contrary to military protocol. Third, it's pretty much just plain not true. Whether or not the President is "interested" or "engaged" has nothing to do with the General's success or failure in prosecuting the war.
Allow me to digress -- McChrystal's failure in Afghanistan is not Obama's fault. Obama didn't draw up the plans, approve the strategy and tactics, etc., etc., etc. But Obama did appoint McChrystal and did approve of the whole "surge" operation, which falls into that legal notion of "you can delegate rights, but you can't delegate responsiblity." Some may not understand the distinction between fault/blame and responsiblity, but it's crucial to understanding how this all plays out.
So McChrystal is failing in Afghanistan and he's blaming Obama in a petty, whiny, and very public way. Regardless how important he thinks he is, he's still subordinate to the President and he still serves at the President's pleasure -- meaning the President can fire his whiny ass. So in a sense, McChrystal has inadvertently given Obama an ultimatum: "Fire me, or give me whatever I want in Afghanistan (and if you do, maybe I'll apologize for all the mean things I said about you, or maybe I won't)."
McChrystal may have done this all on purpose. I don't pretend to know how the man's mind works and I won't speculate on that. But I don't really think he did, because his actions put the ball in Obama's court and Obama, as Commander in Chief, has a lot more options than McChrystal.
Now, if we assume McChrystal DID do it on purpose, what did he expect to gain? Did he really think the President would knuckle under to him? That says more really bad about McChrystal's state of mind than it does about Obama's policies. It suggests McChrystal is edging maybe a little bit toward mentally unstable, in my very humble and thoroughly non-professional opinion.
On the other hand, if McChrystal didn't do it on purpose to goad Obama into some kind of action (whatever that may have been), then it still suggests McChrystal isn't thinking too clearly. Why would he do such a thing? Dissing the CinC in print during wartime? Not good. Not good at all.
At that point, all the options are Obama's. McChrystal shot early, and now by the duelist's code of honor, his opponent has a clear, uncontested shot.
I would personally not be surprised if Obama "reconciled" with McChrystal and kept him on as commander in Afghanistan. That's been a pattern of his throughout the administration. I personally don't think it would be the best decision or even a smart one, but I wouldn't be surprised by it.
Such a decision would also suggest that Obama is reluctant, for whatever reasons, to admit EITHER that he made a mistake in appointing McChrystal in the first place and/or that he made a mistake in going along with the "surge" policy. People who are afraid to admit mistakes will often continue in behavior that they know is wrong because that's easier and less painful than admitting the mistake. They will even continue in that behavior knowing that it is personally harmful to them, because they believe they can bear the harm inflicted by the other better than they can bear the harm of appearing weak or wrong by admitting a mistake. (This is the syndrome of the battered spouse who stays with the batterer and defends the batterer despite risk of physical danger rather than admit the relationship is unhealthy. Been there, done that, seen it too many times to count.)
Personally, I DON'T THINK that's the case with Obama. Again, I'm not a professional; I'm not trying to psychoanalyze him. But I am looking at possible choices and possible motives for those choices.
Obama's choices come down basically to three:
1. Reconcile, maintain McChrystal in his position, and express unconditional support for McChrystal and the current policy in Afghanistan. I think this is unlikely. Possible, but unlikely.
2. Fire McChrystal, level charges of insubordination against him, etc., etc., etc. I think this is also unlikely because it puts too much focus ON McChrystal. As much as some of us might want to see him in a court-martial, I don't think it's going to happen.
3. Demand (privately) and then accept (publicly) McChrystal's resignation. It makes McChrystal a martyr, but less of a one than in #2. I think this is what will happen. It's not a win situation for Obama, but that's because of the nature of the war in Afghanistan, NOT because of McChrystal.
Both #2 and #3 make McChrystal a martyr, and if he has political ambitions (which I'm sure he does), I'm sure he'd rather get fired because that would give him more sympathy in the pro-war base, the bunch that thinks we "lost" in Vietnam because all the hippies kept the army from really going after the g**ks, blah, blah, blah. That faction is going to support McChrystal the same way they support Palin -- it's all emotion, no brain.
Ultimately, Obama's mistake was in thinking he could "win" in Afghanistan by following the same old unsuccessful strategy as his predecessors. Maybe he'll change course as a result of this. Maybe not. We'll have to wait and see.
Tansy Gold
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