PA-Sen POLL: Sestak 41 (+5), Toomey 41 (-1)

[jefferson_dem]

PA-Sen: Sestak, Toomey Tied
by: Crisitunity
Tue Jun 22, 2010 at 1:33 PM EDT

PPP (pdf) (6/19-21, Pennsylvania voters, 3/29-4/1 in parens):

Joe Sestak (D): 41 (36)
Pat Toomey (R): 41 (42)
Undecided: 18 (22)
(MoE: ±4%)

PPP gives us the second tied big-name race of the day, this time in Pennsylvania. Enough time seems to have passed since the Democratic primary that any immediate bounce effects have probably worn off, and the net result is a pure tossup between Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak and Republican ex-Rep. Pat Toomey.

Most of Sestak's gains come from consolidating Democrats behind him; he was drawing only 59% of Dems three months ago, but now he's up to 70%, while Toomey has the support of 73% of GOPers. Toomey leads 41-21 among independents, but indies make up a much smaller part of the Pennsylvania electorate than most other states. Sestak and Toomey have very similar favorables (29/28 for Sestak, 30/28 for Toomey), so unless something happens to redefine one of them, this is going to be all about turnout. And with a rather Republican-leaning sample here (it went for McCain 48-47 in 2008), that means that if Dems can coax out a few more currently-unlikely voters, they should be in position to pull out the victory.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/7113/pasen-sestak-toomey-tied

[Unvanguard]

1. I like this very very much. n/t

[Scurrilous]

2. K & R

:thumbsup:

[MidwestTransplant]

3. Rasmussen better hurry and come out with another "poll" to counter this.

[HughMoran]

4. sweet!

[brooklynite]

5. Had lunch with him today...

Generally polling is looking attractive, buit money's currently tight. Big issue seems to be how to go after Toomey while maintaining positive "what exactly are you going to do" message he thinks voters want to focus on.

[Phx_Dem]

6. Good news. n/t