After Arizona - Hispanic Support Begins to Swing in the Dems' Favor

[Clio the Leo]

Immigration Bill Fallout

There's no doubt that the new Arizona immigration law is popular nationally, but that still doesn't mean the issue's going to work to the GOP's advantage this fall.

When we polled Colorado in early March Michael Bennet and Jane Norton were tied. Last week we found Bennet with a 3 point lead. One of the biggest reasons for that shift? Bennet went from leading Norton by 12 points with Hispanic voters to a 21 point advantage. That large shift in a Democratic direction among Hispanics mirrors what we saw in our Arizona Senate polling last month- Rodney Glassman went from trailing John McCain by 17 points with them in September to now holding a 17 point lead.

Hispanics in the Mountain West are leaning much more strongly toward the Democrats since the Arizona law was passed. The big question then becomes whether there are white voters who are going to go Republican this fall who wouldn't have if that bill hadn't been passed. We don't see any evidence of that happening yet- Bennet and Glassman are both doing better with white voters than they were before as well, although not to the same degree that they've improved with Hispanics.

A majority of Americans may support the bill but it could still end up working to Democrats' benefit this fall if most of the voters who care enough about it for it be a determining factor in how they vote- or whether they vote- go in their direction.

And I'll be real interested to see our next polls in New Mexico and Nevada where we found Democratic candidates under performing with Hispanics when we did surveys there during the winter.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/05/immigration-bill-fallout.html

[Cha]

1. "Popular Nationally"? I thought it was very

unpopular except with racists?

[Clio the Leo]

2. Sadly, no.....

http://www.newsmax.com/Headline/immigration-arizona-americans-support/2010/05/12/id/358850

and that's just one example

[caledesi]

4. Newsmax?? racist rag....nt

[boppers]

6. Have a bigger data set:

http://pollingreport.com/immigration.htm

It includes the questions to show how this is being played.

[caledesi]

11. TY. That is a lot better! nt

[caledesi]

3. Yep! You are right Cha. nt

[Hello_Kitty]

9. The support for it is a mile wide and an inch thick

Most people who think it's a good idea have no idea what the law really does, or more accurately what it doesn't do. They're being told SB1070 "stops the violence at the border" when it does no such thing.

[Merlot]

5. "There's no doubt that the new Arizona immigration law is popular nationally"

Sorry, I can't read past this first line.

[depakid]

7. Generally speaking, it's not the brightest long term deal to get mean & petty

with the fastest growing demographic.

This quite side from other considerations that we might have as decent human beings.

[Jennicut]

10. Stupid on the Rethug's part. Strategy would be to get the Hispanics

on your side to beat the Dems. Bush was an idiot but he promoted immigration reform for that very reason and Hispanics in 2004 voted more for him then for Kerry.

[niceypoo]

8. Ya think?

You mean they arent lining up in droves to join the GOP?