What are the chances we'll keep both houses?

[Writer]

Just wanted to get a read on what people on DU honestly think will happen.

[davidwparker]

1. If either is lost, it will be over unemployment.

[elleng]

2. I think the chances are OK.

How's THAT for an answer? Just Gut.

[Beetwasher]

3. Very Good-The Senate Will Be Impossible For The GOP To Take

And the house maybe a little less so.

I guarantee you we will hold both houses and I'm willing not only to go on record, but I'd bet on it. Name your price.

Seriously, all this talk about how much trouble the Dems are in is all hype. The Dems stand to lose some seats but it won't be anything near what the hype is saying. If the economy starts to really turn around, we may even pick up a few seats. Not likely, but possible.

[KingFlorez]

4. Very good

The house majority will be reduced by 15-20 seats, the one in the Senate maybe by 4-5.

[TlalocW]

5. I'm going to say 100%

For all the fluffernutter going on with the Tea Partiers, Palin, Republicans being cry-babies, etc. when the benefits from HCR (which most people supported) will start kicking in. Most people look at the TP'ers as nuts; Palin's numbers go lower every time she opens her mouth, and republicans are going to continue to oppose everything brought up on the floor - even if they KNOW it would help America - because they hate it when the democrats win any kind of victory, and they'll suffer for it.

Not that we won't lose a few seats - that's the name of the game, but we'll keep our majorities.

TlalocW

[Proud Liberal Dem]

6. So many things could happen between now and November that it's impossible to tell

The good news is that we got HCR passed early this year (and the sky hasn't fallen....yet), the polls are creaking upwards for Dems, and some Dems whom might have faced some tough challengers (Boxer, Feingold, Gillebrand) won't be. On the down side, Reid ain't looking good and we have some retirements in difficult-to-win districts that could hurt us. My overall predictions are:

1. The "Tea Party" movement will (eventually) fizzle out because, frankly, I don't see how they will be able to maintain their anger and discontent for a long term without finding some kind of outlet for it (other than simply protesting). Its members will either enter the political process- in which case they will be primarying REPUBLICANS and forcing them to spend time and dwindling supplies of money defending "safe" seats" and/or winning easy nominations- or becoming their own "Party" (which will also damage Republicans and will NOT carry any vast swaths of support among the electorate-not enough to win elections). I am, however, personally more worried about its members becoming violent- in which case they drastically marginalize themselves and drive away *sensible* Republicans. They would also become too toxic to continue to support and/or pander to (unfortunately, not without the rest of us incurring some casualties).

2. We will lose some seats in the Senate and House but not enough for the Republicans to assume control. It will NOT be 1994 redux IMHO. It just doesn't seem possible, particularly right now (a few months ago I was less optimistic). Obama and the Democrats in Congress might be slightly more hampered than they are now but that will just help set the stage for 2012 where we can rebound again and win back some more seats (if the Dems play it right).