CNN Poll: Democrats make gains in battle for House

[ProSense]

CNN Poll: Democrats make gains in battle for House

From CNN Deputy Political Director Paul Steinhauser

Washington (CNN) - A new national poll suggests the Democrats have improved their position in this year's battle for Congress, but they still have quite a way to go before their majority status in the House of Representatives could be considered safe at the ballot box.

A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Tuesday indicates that if elections for Congress were held today, 50 percent of the public would back the Democratic candidate in their congressional district, with 46 percent supporting the Republican candidate. That's a switch from CNN's last poll, conducted in late March, when the GOP had a 4-point advantage. The margins are within the poll's sampling error.

The generic ballot question asks respondents if they would vote for a Democrat or Republican in their congressional district, without naming any specific candidates. The Democrats currently hold a 253-177 advantage in the House, with four seats that the Democrats once held vacant and one seat that the GOP held vacant. Republicans need to win 40 seats to take back control of the chamber.

The poll indicates the Democrats received a bump among women and people earning less than $50,000 a year.

more

From Daily Kos:

At this point in the cycle, the generic ballot isn't the best predictor of November's final results, but nonetheless this is a nice trend to see:

CNN, 4/9-11. MoE 3.5% (3/28 results)
Generic ballot preference
among registered voters:
Democratic Party: 50% (45%)
Republican Party: 46% (49%)

That's an 8-point swing in the Democratic Party's direction in the wake of the passage of health care reform. It's also the first CNN generic ballot showing the Democrats leading since mid-November.

A couple of other interesting findings from the poll:

First: In the (unfortunately) unlikely event Sarah Palin were to run for president, she'd be in real trouble. 69% of registered voters think she's unqualified to be President and she trails President Obama by a 55%-42% margin.

Second: Among Republicans, Mike "The Gay Basher" Huckabee is the leader of the field. Huckabee took 24%, leading Mitt Romney (20%), Palin (15%), Newt Gingrich (24%), and Ron Paul (8%).

There's a big gulf between the GOP's elite and their rank-and-file: Although Mitt Romney won last weekend's straw poll at the Southern Republican Leadership Conference, Huckabee managed just 4% of the straw poll vote of GOP insiders. It'll be interesting to see how that plays out in the event Huckabee runs.

[Arkana]

1. Well, that's an improvement over where we were.

Plus, how big an advantage on a generic ballot did Dems have before?

[Cha]

2. Thanks, PS.

[Beetwasher]

3. Remember That Gallup Poll Last Week (?) With Data That Was Several Weeks Old?

Saying the Dems were in SO MUCH TROUBLE???

Remember? Just sayin'...

[tosh]

4. Good news. Kick.

[maxsolomon]

5. november is a long way away

& the HCR goodies are going to kick in in September.

plus, everyone's going to be happy because of Schedule M!

[ProSense]

8. Yup, Democrats are in a good position. n/t

[felinetta]

6. Do you think people are starting to see improvements in their lives? Better tax refunds, etc.?

[sadbear]

7. Tax refunds --- exactly.

[Blue Owl]

9. Don't let Traitor Joe hear about this

Let's let him keep thinking the GOP is somehow gonna save his sorry, sold-out ass.

[Phx_Dem]

10. Uh oh! Hahahaha

Wonder if Joe Scar's head exploded?

[CTyankee]

26. OH, no. He was on this morning talking about Syracuse rejecting Dimon as baccalaureate speaker.

And how stupid those kids are.

Joe is a jerk...

[graywarrior]

11. Ah, the Orwellian bullshit from the other side will pick up some force now

[Kdillard]

12. Not jumping for joy yet but this is good to see.

[ClarkUSA]

13. An eight-point swing in favor of Democrats in three weeks is promising, but let's not get complacent

I hope all of us are attending OFA organizational meetings tonight.

[FrenchieCat]

14. Yep...these days, I'm up for action

instead of just talking a lot of doo(m)-doo(m)!

[old mark]

15. A good start, now let's keep pushing. I'd love to see the GOP LOSE

seats in an election they all were saying they stood to win.
It can happen if we make it so.

mark

[Change Happens]

16. Tell Nate Silver, fast...

He was predicting a loss of about 80 house seats yesterday.

[Hippo_Tron]

21. No he wasn't predicting a lost of 80 seats

He was saying that in an absolute worst case scenario, the Democrats could lose about 70 seats but that scenario was highly unlikely. Silver uses a model that considers best, worst, and everything in between scenarios and assigns a probability to each of them. That's how you get the most accurate picture.

[Marsala]

23. Of course, he also said that a loss of 50 seats was the most likely at the moment...

...so we shouldn't relax. I would consider merely holding the House as a victory, even if we lose over 30 seats. Yeah, it would be a weak majority, but it would be much better than the alternative.

[ClarkUSA]

17. Let's not celebrate yet. A Gallup survey released earlier today showed the opposite trend.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2010/04/13/republicans_lead_in_generic_ballot.html

I hope all of us are going to RSVP for the next OFA organizational meeting.

[gkhouston]

18. Did they actually make any gains or did CNN realize its "Sky is falling!" story wasn't going over

as well as hoped? Who can tell, anymore? :shrug:

Honestly, anytime they have one of those "tell us what you think" segments, I think some of the responses are scripted by people who used to make up the letters to Penthouse and they intersperse the opinions we're "supposed" to be having with actual input from the field. :+

[Enthusiast]

19. I hope this becomes a trend. nt

[bigwillq]

20. If it matters, someone please rec for me

I wanted to, but hit unrec instead. Damn you, Happy Hour that went to 10 p.m.!

[Aramchek]

22. this makes Leslie Blitzer cry real tears

[stevenleser]

24. Proud to Kick and Rec!

Dems rising. Beware GOP!

[cascadiance]

25. Huckabee was populist in last election when it came to the class warfare issue...

He probably had a target on his back after his early successful performance in Iowa which projected him in the lead. The Republican establishment couldn't have any of that "crap" that he was going to try to help out those of the middle and working classes at the elite's expense. That's why he got pushed aside then.

I think we're seeing a revisiting of what made him popular in Iowa then too. The big hole for the Republicans to overcome is how part of the party just wants to reward the wealthy, and the other part doesn't, but wants to make us a religious state.

I think if we push against the corporatists big time this coming election, then perhaps we can get some cross over votes from those Republicans that become more concerned about their financial state than whether Johnny can marry Johnny next door to them...

The problem for us is throwing out the corporatist elements that still have a stranglehold of the power centers of our own party. We don't want to be seen as the party of the rich with the Rahm's and the DLC of our party calling the shots, if someone like Huckabee gets more power. Hope there's time enough to do some significant primarying of the DLC bums this year so that those like Marcy Winograd can replace the corporatist bums in our party. Probably don't have as much primary challenges that we should, but if we do make the ones we do have out there work and be successful, perhaps it will be enough to send a message to the party that come the fall they better do the PEOPLE's work, and not the "corporate people"'s work or special interest's work that have been buying off the party. And that parties like the Greens also might threaten some of those that weren't challenged if they don't.

We need to build a list of those primary progressive challengers like Winograd, and donate to them to the max, to help them be successful. That should be our call to arms this spring.