TPM: Watch Out. Looming 2010 Enthusiasm Gap.

[flpoljunkie]

Watch Out

Josh Marshall | November 27, 2009

A pretty staggering number out of the new Daily Kos weekly tracking poll. They asked voters, basically, how are sure are you you're going to vote next year.

The first number is certain or likely to vote; the second is unlikely or certain not to vote.

Republican Voters: 81/14
Independent Voters: 65/23
Democratic Voters: 56/40

Everyone knows there's an enthusiasm gap. You don't even need a poll to tell you. You can feel it. On the one hand you've got very gunned up conservatives, who make up an even greater proportion of the diminished GOP. On the other you've got a mix of demoralized progressives and other Dems who feel like they got the job done in November 2008 and have checked out on politics ... at least for now.

All together, it points to very, very rough seas in 2010.

http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2009/11/watch_out.php?ref=fpblg

[FrenchieCat]

1. We'll get what we deserve, I guess.

Should be interesting.

[flpoljunkie]

2. Let's hope, not too interesting.

[knightinwhitesatin]

20. Yes

bailouts of wall street
flailing health care reform
and doubling down on a war no one wants

Not exactly knocking them out of the park right now

[babylonsister]

3. That is staggering. Sigh. nt

[Vincardog]

4. LEts put this in perspective 81% of 20% = 16.2% of the people

65% of 30% = 19.5% of the people
56% of 50% = 28% of the people

All of you party over policy people should be happy the Ds still win until ES&S chimes in

[flpoljunkie]

6. For starters, Dems are not 50% of the electorate.If 46% of Dems stay home, it would be catastrophic.

[HughMoran]

7. & self identified Republicans are 22%

So, it's not all bad.

[flpoljunkie]

8. The Dems have their work cut out for them, that's for sure.

[HughMoran]

11. no question

we're certainly giving up the advantage we had just a year ago, though it's not entirely unexpected...

[rosesaylavee]

9. Good point...

And by next fall, there should be some good news. It can't be all horrible... can it?

[HughMoran]

10. At least we know that we're about to be hit over the head with a bat

We have nearly a year to do something about it.

[rosesaylavee]

15. I think the Rs are imploding myself.

I don't know that the party is going to rally around the same R candidate. I think what happened in upstate New York will repeat several times over. Sarah and her nutty following will hand pick someone to run against the standard conservative candidate. And they will cancel each other out. Just my take on it tho.

[mcablue]

25. Can you provide a source to your claim that the D/R split is 50%-20%?

Haven't seen that gap reported anywhere.

[BeFree]

5. Heh

We are just exhausted. We fought, against great odds, for 8 years.
Give us a breather.

Then again, the division we see just on DU is a bad sign. But not to worry, come next year we'll be pushing again to get real change solidified and the dis-uniters out of the way.

[chill_wind]

14. We can't wait until next year. Every day that passes now matters.

[AllentownJake]

12. Voter turnout

Better give the base a reason to vote in 2010 or a minority can win an election...easily.

[Name removed]

13. Deleted sub-thread

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Jennicut]

16. I would like to point out that every time a party is out of power they desperately want to be back

in power. As do the people who back and vote for the party. Nothing new here. 2002 was an anomaly because of Sept 11th. Most parties in power of the Presidency loose seats. I have been saying this for months. There is nothing shocking about it. In fact, its a historic trend.

[RepublicanElephant]

17. even more reason for PALIN/BECK 2012! that ticket will scare dems to the polls. nt

[depakid]

18. Easy way to check folks back in

Let's actually FIGHT for what we believe in.

Which: Memo to the administration and the Senate is:

Traditional Democratic Values- reflected in policies.

Stand up and fight- and you'll have an army behind you the likes of which you've never seen in several generations.

[flpoljunkie]

19. Too many Conservadems are captive to special interests. Dems must pass meaningful healthcare reform-

for a start, but Dems ignore the anger at the banks and credit card companies at their peril. They are sadly being seen by many as the new protectors of the banking industry--when it is the R's who are blocking Dodd's credit card rate freeze (though making some Dems very pleased at their obstruction).

And, of course, James Carville's famous line, 'It's the economy, stupid!' and 'Jobs, Jobs, Jobs!' are now and will be paramount concerns in the 2010 elections. The Dems and President Obama need to do a better job of educating people that Reagan was right when he famously said, 'Deficits don't matter."

Its the recovery, stupid! The deficits will start to take care of themselves when the economy begins to recover. Don't let the Republicans sell their 'deficit worries.' They are sadly succeeding in this regard--for now.

[ClarkUSA]

21. Not surprising, given historical precedence. Note there's a party I.D. gap that favors Dems & indies

I'd wait for the post-HCR passage numbers before panicking. Also, there's another 11 months to go until Election Day.
The WH and Congressional Democrats know the score and will be largely focusing on issues like jobs and the economy
next year, but not to the exclusion of other priorities like implementing early HCR measures and trying to repeal DADT.

[tabbycat31]

22. it means WE have to fire up the base

every one here has to see how they can work locally to fire up the Democratic base. New Jersey and Virginia can tell you what happens when the base is NOT fired up.

And to the Democrats in Congress--- preach to the choir first.

[NC_Nurse]

23. It's a year away. Why do we have to obsess about 2010 and 2012 all the time?

How about now? Seems like nobody cares between election campaigns. If we actually press to get some things done, maybe the apathy will
be cured before then.

[ClarkUSA]

26. Exactly. Blogs like TPM and HuffPo keep churning the waters to keep readers coming back.

Your common sense is all too lacking at DU. :hi:

Also, polls taken near or at holiday time in of off-off year are not representative
of what happens on Election Day in an off-year or in a presidental election year.

[NC_Nurse]

27. Thanks!

[treestar]

24. I've always been able to admit that repukes and the far right are far

more enthusiastic, even when what they want is far away from their grasp.

It's the left that gets discouraged and disappointed immediately and gives up, even when things are going in the direction they want.

I don't know why this is so.