Thin Skins

[AllentownJake]

I'm honestly surprised that some of you lasted through the election. Took a little walk into the Basement where I have a couple of picture frames from the Primary and General Election. Good times, Good Friends, Good people.

I also remembered how much absolute bullshit I had to put up with. Volunteers not showing up for shifts, nut-cases showing up in the office, Hillary supporters who were still somewhat pissed over the primary, Obama supporters who would not stop poking Hillary supporters for sport, people from the state DNC, a few field organizers who didn't show up to work on time, a few that were mentally deficient, abortion protesters, bomb threats, racist, people pulling a gun on a canvassing team, local elected officials who wanted to grandstand, local elected officials who wouldn't lift a finger, other team leaders stealing volunteers (the entire numbers thing made people competitive), a fight over a giant Obama puppet for the Halloween parade, someone wasting all the printer ink during GOTV to print persuasion literature, a hit and run accident involving out of state volunteers at the staging location, screaming matches at 3 in the morning....

I just have to sit back and laugh people are worried about flame wars on the internet and how it might effect this President.

Here is what will effect this President, at the end of his first term, if US troops are out of active Middle Eastern combat, he's going to be in a pretty good position. If unemployment is sitting at or below 6% and incomes for middle class Americans has risen, he'll be a tough nut to crack, if the holes that exist in the current Health Care legislation are plugged and less people are relying on emergency treatment and are able to afford protecting their own health without worrying about financial ruin, he's going to be golden. If the provisions that piss the left off from the domestic Bush era security apparatus are removed, he's going to have a shit load of looney left volunteers.

See in 2012, President Obama is not going to be running on the promise of who he is. In 2012 he'll be running on the record of who he was.

He has some accomplishments early in, he's made a few mistakes too and I have no doubt he's working hard, however all falls on his shoulders and his colleagues in his political party in congress to deliver the above. Is it possible, I don't know. What I do know is he asked for the job, I never asked him to run for President, when he asked me to help, I obliged based on him telling me he thinks he could deliver, if he delivers by 2012, I'll oblige again. If not, I'll be obliging some other democrat's campaign for a lower office and vote for him. You have to have your heart in it to be able to put up with the shit I mentioned above.

[elocs]

1. Maybe in 2012 he will be running on who he promises to be in the future.

"If" he delivers. There is that huge, huge 2 letter word.

[AllentownJake]

2. You can not run for re-election on potential

No matter how nice and charismatic you are.

edited for not.

[elocs]

5. "Change you can really believe in, this time, promise".

:bounce:

[AllentownJake]

9. I'm pretty sure the word Change will not be in any campaign literature in the present tense

Changed, well that is something you can run on for re-election.

[JohnnyLib2]

7. Looks like you meant, "you can't........" ?

Sorry if I misunderstood.

[AllentownJake]

10. oopsie

[ProSense]

32. Tell that to Bush

and the GOP with their "don't change horses in midstream" meme and Reagan, who won reelection in 1984---people are still waiting for trickle down economics to work.

[AllentownJake]

40. Well I guess we can run a campaign on scaring the shit out of the country

It doesn't really work with our base as well though.

[ProSense]

50. Potential doesn't mean scare. n/t

[AllentownJake]

55. So are you predicting this President will not have an adequate record to run on

in 2012?

[ProSense]

59. What?

The election is three years away. Trying to predict what will happen is like trying to predict Sarah Palin's next move: stupid.

[AllentownJake]

61. Just saying you arguing now that the President will not have an adequate record

and will need to run on potential in 2012.

I figured your argument would be more along the lines he is approaching having a very strong record to run on.

[ProSense]

63. No, those are your nonsensical words. n/t

[AllentownJake]

64. Than why are you arguing over potential

Are you more scared than I am, because I think this administration has good potential on the economy once they get out of the storm of bad debt.

[ProSense]

65. Potential doesn't mean nothing has been accomplished.

You appear confused by the word.

[AllentownJake]

66. Well if he has a good record, I would figure that would speak more to potential

Than anything else but maybe I'm confused.

[Cha]

21. Maybe Maybe Maybe..maybe you'll

get a clue.

[AllentownJake]

25. edit for get

[Cha]

38. Thanks.

[inna]

44. :facepalm:

dude, you're impossible.

:toast:

[ProSense]

3. This is not entirely true

See in 2012, President Obama is not going to be running on the promise of who he is. In 2012 he'll be running on the record of who he was.

President Obama is going to be running against the Republicans, who will likely be running on the exact opposite of anything Obama is for. The problem with all the people trying to translate 10 months into a projection for 2012 is that they seem to believe this is going to be a contest between Democrats. It's not, it will be Democrats vs. Republicans, and possibly a third-party candidate.

[AllentownJake]

4. I think you have a higher respect for the American electorate than I do

In 2008 he was running against George W. Bush and Dick Cheney. John McCain was just the silly sock puppet they propped up. In 2012 any other candidate is going to be running against Barack Obama. It is going to be 100% about him and his record, that is how a re-election almost always works.

I'm not going to predict the future 3 years out, we could invent cold fusion and be driving flying cars in 3 years for all I know. The only thing I can look at is trends and off year election years are typically difficult for the incumbent party in the White House. So 2010 should be a dirty awful fight and we will possibly lose a few seats.

I got an Iphone for $99 this year. 3 years ago, my phone could barely get web browsing and now I have a practical computer at my fingertips.

[ProSense]

6. "It is going to be 100% about him and his record, that is how a re-election almost always works."

That's rather a simplistic claim. The biggest setback of the Clinton Presidency was the failure to pass health care. Democrats suffered huge losses, and Clinton was re-elected. Most of his achievements began to take shape in the latter part of his first term and were realized in his second term.

[AllentownJake]

11. You don't think we were in the middle of one of the biggest economic expansions

In US history didn't help him?

[ClarkUSA]

12. Exactly. Recent history contradicts the OP's rather simplistic claims.

"The biggest setback of the Clinton Presidency was the failure to pass health care. Democrats suffered huge losses, and
Clinton was re-elected. Most of his achievements began to take shape in the latter part of his first term and were realized
in his second term."

[AllentownJake]

13. 1994 still recovering from recession

1996 blazing economy.

I forget it's the health care stupid from 1992.

[ClarkUSA]

17. The 1994 Dem midterm debacle was more about Hillarycare's crashing & burning than a mild recession.

1996 was more due to having the worst choice of GOP challenger in modern history versus a popular incumbent Prez
than the economy. Think how Sarah Palin would do against Pres. Obama in 2012 and you get the picture.

[AllentownJake]

18. That and Democratic congressional corruption scandals

Granted the guys who replaced those involved made them look like petty thieves.

[BeFree]

8. You're right

...it will be against republicans because Obama is a centrist leaving just the whacked out pubbies alone, by themselves. Piece of cake.

In the meantime we work to bring our party way left.

[AllentownJake]

15. "It's the economy stupid"

Unemployment Clinton takes office 8.5%

Unemployment Clinton runs for re-election 5.4%

[BeFree]

20. Blame it on Bush

As long as it is getting better Obama is in. Numbers won't matter too much as long as it's moving in the right direction 2 years from now.

What would the pubbies have as a plan that would be better?

[AllentownJake]

24. Unemployment is above 6% and wages are stagnat

Democrats are going to have a hard time. Not impossible time, just a hard time. Republicans have a hard core base of nuts that will vote GOP regardless of what is going on in the world. Democrats have a base that has to be dragged to the polls every election.

People don't see an improvement in their lives, dragging those people out, isn't going to be easy.

A Sarah Palin Presidential Run would be helpful. We hate her, they run someone affable and boring like Huckabee, we got some problems in the above scenario.

[BeFree]

26. Nah

The pubbies got nothing. And they are cashing in their chips - the one or two they have left - and just being assholes.

No fear, Jake, just be cool and hang loose, we got this.

[AllentownJake]

30. Ever work a GOTV?

I just watched a very capable democratic candidate who cut taxes, increased efficiency, was a viable candidate for statewide office, got a significant amount of GOP and independent votes in 2005 almost lose to a Tea Bagging pastor with no money.

The reason, for whatever reason this year, all the democrats who came out in 2005 sat at home in 2009. GOP vote total was actually the same as in 2005. Turnout almost killed his political career.

Reason Democrats didn't turn out, they weren't happy about other things going on.

[BeFree]

36. Sure

But I concentrate on Indies.

Besides, yer talking about a minor local race versus nationwide elections.
Apples and oranges.

Chill, dude, yer getting way ahead of yerself.

[AllentownJake]

37. I have to look at the Pat Toomey state wide headquarters everyday

Doubt I will be chilled out, till I see that close next November with sad Republicans carrying boxes out.

[ClarkUSA]

39. I worked for Obama in IA, OH, and PA from 11/08 - Election Day and I concur w/your logic.

:thumbsup:

[AllentownJake]

41. Senator Obama's campaign and President Obama's re-election effort

are going to be very different operations. I think the Change and Hope banners are going to be left in the warehouse.

[BeFree]

43. Say, Jake

What do you know about the voting machines in PA?

All electronic, right? No paper at all?

[AllentownJake]

45. Define paper

They print paper receipts at the end of the night that are signed by the judges...but if you mean an ongoing paper trail, throughout the day...no.

I observed the counting this year at a precinct at the end of a night. It is quick, if the computers were hacked..yes you'd be fucked unless you compared the sign in book to vote totals.

[BeFree]

46. No. You. Did. Not.

Observe the counting. Unless you are a computer.

The count took place in the programming, inside the black box.

That may be why your candidate almost lost.
It is why Kerry lost.

You need to get educated, I see.

[AllentownJake]

47. My candidate almost lost when he controls the government that did the counting?

Appointed the woman in charge of the elections office?

And the Tea Bagger asked for a recount and still lost?

No that is not what happened. If it is, it was one epic fail.

The only people who would be interested in seeing him lose are democrats in other parts of the state who want to run for statewide office.

The Tea Bagger has more of a position that there was tampering with the machines :rofl:

[BeFree]

48. Clueless

Ahh, but your in camp with most.

Don't believe me? Go asking around in the Election Reform forum.

What you'll find is that the machines are hacked at the main office where the machine programmers work, and if you make a federal case about it the judge will tell you to go f yerself.

Yep, you need an education. Go. Seek, Yee shall find.

[AllentownJake]

54. I'm in PA

If the machines are hacked, the democrats did the hacking, we control everything here for now.

[BeFree]

56. Bullshit.

You know jack shit about the machines that count the votes.

They are controlled by the programmers who work from an office, Gawd only knows where.

Get educated about the damned things, please. I hate having to mop the floor like this.

[AllentownJake]

57. I live in a state where Ed Rendell is Governor

If there is voter machine fraud going on, the GOP isn't engaging in it.

[BeFree]

60. You just don't get it?

Are you really that hard-headed?

The local folks are just high priced secretaries around those machines.
Ever hear of HAVA? That's what paid for the machines.

What do ya got there... ES&S, or Premier? ES&S IIRC.

Hook up with DUer Demodonkey in PA. She'll fill ya in, if you really want to know. Which I am beginning to doubt.

[AllentownJake]

62. I'll look into it

but I have strong doubts that the Lehigh County executive race was one which was hacked when the Mayor of Allentown won with over 75% of the vote in the same time against a funded GOP candidate.

[ProSense]

27. And?

The unemployment rate dropped to 6.4% in Clinton's first year, at the end of 1993. Didn't stop health care from failing or the losses in 1994.

What's the economy going to look like in 2012? The point is, that President Obama prevented the country from sliding into a economic depression. Three years from now the situation will look completely different. The Republican Party, however, will still have to find a spin to run on.

[AllentownJake]

31. They were writing our obituaries in 2004

Or have you forgotten recent history. I never underestimate their ability to climb back. They shouldn't have after Nixon..they did. They shouldn't have after Clinton...they did.

[ProSense]

33. "They shouldn't have after Clinton...they did."

With Clinton's help: the missteps and deregulation.

[AllentownJake]

35. Carter helped them with Reagan as well

Oh, and they fight dirty.

[Cha]

14. Nobody I know on here has this "thin skin" you speak of..

We've been here through two primaries..a lot of us.

The 2004 one when I was for Dean got very ugly but when Dean lost I got behind Kerry. The 2008 primary was ugly and is still going on for some..but, here we are.

And, more than a few are still behind our candidate who won..there was reason we supported him.

No thin skins..let the bullshit continue.

Edit~ http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=433x16846

[AllentownJake]

16. Really than why are you rejoicing over a hiding place nt

[Cha]

19. It's not a hiding place..it's a pit stop.

Don't try to make this about the Barack Obama Forumn. Nobody's going anywhere.

Anyone can read what's said on those threads..just no one can take a shit on them..too bad.

[AllentownJake]

23. Just funny

that is all, worried about people taking shits on your threads. Seems somewhat trivial don't you think?

[Cha]

34. Oh no, the endless crap, deleted posts and locked threads are fun.

[ClarkUSA]

22. True. Quite the opposite. No one with thin skins could possibly remain active here.

:fistbump:

[JohnnyLib2]

29. True, so true.

[Cha]

42. Yeah, with a lot of cases I'm thinking their

love of country took precedence over everything.

:fistbump:

[JohnnyLib2]

28. I'm reminded of how GHW Bush lost. The economy was a huge factor.

And that was not so long after HIGH approval ratings for the Persian Gulf war.

The OP makes important points, IMO. Rec.

[Oregone]

49. "If unemployment is sitting at or below 6%..."

I doubt a miracle will bring it under 8%, so lets not set the bar too high

[lillypaddle]

51. Jake, I see, and appreciate, your quest

for objectivity. I appreciate the fact that you are striving to understand the issues, and attempting to be as fair as possible. I don't always agree with you, but I do appreciate you. And I share many of your "struggles."

[Cha]

53. Yes, that is to be

appreciated.

[AllentownJake]

67. Cha,

Do you like it when you ask me to show my middle finger?

Thanks for inspiring this post.

[AllentownJake]

58. The world is nuts right now

and unlike Yossarian, I don't think it is yet time to run to Sweden yet.

Thank you.

[LooseWilly]

68. Hah! Nice allusion...

:toast:

[Clio the Leo]

52. You know your philosophy on how to answer a pollster's phone call?

That's the same approach I take to posting at DU. ;)

[avaistheone1]

69. Hey Jake, I think after a few years more years in Afghanistan with the escalation and all

the folks in this country are not going to have a pot to piss in.

As a result, I think that in 2012 Obama will be in a very shaky position for re-election both in terms of democratic, independent and cross over voters.

I think you have rose-colored glasses on...