A little bit about what all is in the Unemployment numbers:

[Pirate Smile]

Household (unemployment rate%) is based on a phone survey while the other # showed 20,000 drop is from a survey of employers - mostly larger employers and misses what smaller businesses do.

Summary:

Household Survey - Survey of 50,000 Households, said to capture more small businesses:

Unemployment Rate: down to 9.7%
Employment: + 540,000
Unemployment: -430,000



Payroll Survey - measures employment as reported by 300,000 businesses:

Employment: -20,000

Real Unemployment Rate (which includes discouraged workers) went down significantly from 17.4% to 16.5%

Good signs for future hiring - temp hiring is up and the work week hours went up.

January Job Gains(from Payroll survey, not Household):

Manufacturing +11,000
Services +40,000
Retail +42,000
Temp Help +52,000 (good signal for future hires - use temps before take the leap to perm hires)

January Job losses:

Goods Producing -60,000
Construction -75,000
Financial Activities -16,000
Leisure/Hospitality -14,000

Overtime #'s also went up which is a good sign because they will work their current employees as much as possible before they hire more people so it is a sign of future hiring.

[Mass]

1. So, I am sure every TV pundit will celebrate this, particularly because yesterday's rumor was 10.1 %

:sarcasm:

For the rest, I just hope this trend will continue.

[dmallind]

2. Hmm hadn't dug into U6 numbers yet. This is more encouraging than I thought. NT

[DisgustedInMN]

3. "Figures lie and liars figure."

When I've got a paycheck in my hand, I'll celebrate the "recovery," till then..

Not so much.

Sorry, I've heard your song and dance before, and it doesn't pay the mortgage.

[karynnj]

4. Good luck in your job search

I don't think she is saying that it is time to celebrate recovery. But, every recovery starts when first numbers stop getting worse and hit a bottom and then starts to improve, possibly slowly. Next, given how deep that bottom is, it is still painful as it starts to improve.

She did say: "Real Unemployment Rate (which includes discouraged workers) went down significantly from 17.4% to 16.5%"

Now, that does mean that 16.5% of the people wanting a job are still in your situation - which means the economy is awful. But, a year ago, the trajectory was that things were continuing to get worse, at an accelerating rate. It is important to see that, while things are completely awful, they are beginning to improve.

[DisgustedInMN]

6. Look..

.. I can't use "positive numbers" to pay my bills. It's been over a year, FDR put a a MILLION back to work with 30 days of taking office. So, pardon me if I'm less than impressed that A FUCKING YEAR LATER, all that's been accomplished is to slow down the bleeding. I don't have any more time to wait for Team Obama to get their act together, my unemployment are GONE week after next, I have NO options left. My fucking 401k is gone. I can't get a response, much less an interview. So pardon me all to fuck if I don't go dancing in the streets.

Let me guess, you are have a stable income. Walk a mile in my shoes, then see what your reaction is to the latest attempt to put lipstick on this pig.

[livetohike]

8. Well my husband and I have been in your shoes more times

than I can count. We have relocated all over the country for work in the past 35 years, including a 2.5 year stay in MN before Sperry dumped him and Control Data dumped me.

I sympathize with you :hug:.

[DisgustedInMN]

11. It's nice to ...

.. have someone that doesn't just make excuses and condescending platitudes respond. Thank you. If we could go elsewhere, (which might happen anyway) we would. Problem being, we have our home to deal with, with some equity in it. We resisted the urge to cash out and buy a bunch of crap with a second mortgage. Even though our home's value isn't "upside down," selling it would be at best, difficult, and the chances of getting anywhere near it's real value are all but impossible. But if something doesn't break for me soon, all of that is academic. What really pisses me off, is that it didn't have to be this way. A year later and now "JOBS ARE OUR NUMBER ONE PRIORITY" is nothing more than typical election year politicking to me.

Makes think back to something I heard long ago. What's the difference between a recession and depression?

A recession is when the guy down the street doesn't have a job.

A depression is when you don't.

[livetohike]

13. Exactly right.

Just a suggestion, but if you could get on with the Census in any capacity you would bring some money in and you may be able to get back on unemployment insurance depending how many quarters you work. It (Census job) would get you out there in the community and do some networking too.I worked in the 2000 Census as an office manager - I had a stack of business cards 2" high with all of the contacts I made in the community. Unfortunately, we left town when my husband finally find a job in CA. A friend of mine just got on with the Census in Pgh. this week as a recruiting assistant. He was unemployed (age 57), so hopefully it will be a good experience for him and something else may turn up. You never know :-).

We've been unemployed under every President, as you said about the difference between a recession and depression.....

[Teaser]

9. Data is data.

Your reaction to it is understandable, given your situation. That does not, however, change the fact that this report contains positive economic data.

[Berry Cool]

15. I hear you, too.

It's been only six months for me, I still have 19 weeks of federal benefits left even if not another bill gets passed to help me, and I still have both my 401ks and some savings. But frankly, when I hear that there have been people making six figures who have been unemployed for two years and are going to the free health clinics being funded by Countdown viewers, I get a little scared.

I start asking myself, why do I think the next 19 weeks will be any different from the last 27? Especially when I have received only two phone calls and one set of interviews (no offer) after all this time?

I listen to Obama talk about how he's going to solve my problem by giving businesses tax incentives to hire me. I listen to him say that the solutions of the 1930s are not the same solutions that will work today: And I think: "But, if FDR were alive and president, he wouldn't be just offering tax breaks to companies to hire me. He'd institute a program that would GIVE ME A JOB. Period. And he wouldn't panic about what that did to the national debt or what the Republicans would say about it, because he'd realize the increased productivity from all us people with jobs would solve that problem for him. And that all us grateful people with jobs would happily re-elect him."

I never used to envy the lot of jobless people during the Depression. Now, sadly, I do. Because it's worse being jobless now. Back then, I could have gotten a job through the WPA and my problems would eventually be over. Not so now.

Edited to add: Another way I am lucky is that I don't have an upside-down mortgage, or any mortgage. I rent and I have very understanding landlords. No troubles paying them yet, but they say if I ever do, we'll work something out. There should be a place for people like this in heaven.

[DisgustedInMN]

19. Obama isn't a pimple on FDR's ass.

There's a reason FDR got re-elected 3 times, he actually was a man of, by and for We the People, not just a pretender that made pretty speeches about it.

[dmallind]

5. Anecdotal experience does not refute data

You are one of the 16.5% then. So was I until recently. It's a tough job market to be sure, but that does not mean it's not getting better. 16.5 is less than 17.3. A horribly broken leg in a cast still hurts, but it's better than a bone sticking up in the air, and it's a necessary step to being able to run again.

[DisgustedInMN]

7. I tried to deposit some data.

They told me, get the fuck out of here, we want money.

[Teaser]

10. why would you try and deposit data?

that's not what it's for.

[DisgustedInMN]

12. No shit?

:eyes:

[dmallind]

27. Yes - agian personal anecdotes The hundreds of thousands of newly employed have them too. NT

[HillGal]

14. I don't blame you for feeling angry at all, I know too many people out of work who will look at

these figures and say bullcrap, I don't care what anyone says, the numbers are being fudged.

I sincerely hope you find something soon, I've been there before being scared wondering where you're going to get money for basics, and I'm terrified of ever going through that again.

[treestar]

18. Why wouldn't they say good, things are looking up, now my chances

are better?

[HillGal]

23. How can you say that when 20,000 less people are working, and how many people

are counted who've stopped looking for jobs? there's nothing exciting at all, let's be honest here, these numbers are fudged and we need to start holding democratic feet to the fire like we did republicans.

[dmallind]

28. Depends on the survey. The household survey says hundreds of thousands of gains

And it is more capable of finding those employed by small businesses than the alternative survey.

Anyone saying "it's only 50,000 people" should be able to explain the MOE and confidence interval of an n of 50.000 with a universe of 150million or so.

[quiller4]

30. The numbers are higher than I expected - all the larger employers

in my area are hiring. A headhunter called my husband with an offer the other day and he retired in 2003.

[fascisthunter]

16. you have every right to be less than enthusiastic

I wish you well.

[treestar]

17. So as long as you have a job, it wouldn't matter?

You're telling us it is all about you and you only, so if you did have a job, the unemployment rate would not matter either, no matter how high it was or however many people were still out of work.

We can look at the big picture and be happy things are better - I am of the self employed, who all saw business slack off during the recession, yet were never officially unemployed, and so did not count at all.

[DisgustedInMN]

20. Bu bye

Welcome to ignored, I don't continence trolling.

[treestar]

21. You haven't done anything but show you are not willing to answer

a point.

you've said the unemployment rate does not matter. Only if you have a job. so if you had one, it could still be high.

We're allowed to disagree without being labeled as "trolls." Or better, yet, allowed to look at the big picture and not forced to agree with you just because you claim to be unemployed.

But someone as self centered as you would not allow for disagreement of any kind, it's true.

[HillGal]

25. Self centered? I can't believe you can say that to someone

who's having a hard time paying their bills, whose unemployment is gone soon, whose 401k is gone, and who feels they have no other options, how very kind of you! I'll make sure to tell the unemployed people I know also that their fellow ideologues feel as though they're being self centered because they're scared because they see no prospects for their future.

[DisgustedInMN]

26. I don't care what..

.. jerks have to say or what they call me, that one's already on ignore. What these fools have yet to figure out, is what millions of people, unemployed, hungry, tired, desperate, and feeling cheated by the very system they spent their entire lives contributing to and playing by the rules, and now find that they have nothing left to lose are capable of and willing to do. There's one hell of a storm brewing, and these fools are gonna wish they'd paid attention while they still had the opportunity. It ain't gonna be pretty.

[HillGal]

29. Yep, it's brewing bigtime, but some need to live in lalaland. I know a woman on disability who's

having a very hard time making ends meet, every month she has to go to 4 different food banks just to get food for the month. She called my house crying last month because she needed over the counter meds and couldn't afford them, we were furious she didn't call us sooner but she was embarrassed to ask for help, screw that, if you need help you ask for it.

[grantcart]

22. great

[Pirate Smile]

24. Some more info - too late for me to add to OP:

Thoughts on the Payrolls Number

Here are some random thoughts on the report:

1.) From the household data, we have some very good news. The civilian labor force increased from 153,059 to 153,170. This forms the denominator of the unemployment percentage calculation. The number of unemployed decreased from 15,267 to 14,837. This means the unemployment rate decreased because the number of people unemployed actually decreased. This is a very good development. (it isn't because people dropped out of the labor force)

2.) From the household data: the number of people employed increased from 137,792 to 138,333. While this number jumps around an awful lot, the size of the jump is also good news.

3.) not in the labor force dropped from 83,865 to 83,663. This means some people reentered the labor force -- also healthy.

4.) The unemployment rate decreased from 10% to 9.7% -- three tenths of a percent.

5.) While goods-producing industries saw an overall decline (-60,000) manufacturing saw an increase of 11,000.

6.) Since September 2009, temporary help services employment has risen by 247,000. This is a leading indicator.

7.) Average weekly hours increased from 33.8 to 33.9.

8.) Average hourly earnings increased from $22.41 to $22.45

http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2010/02/thoughts-on-payrolls-number.html