NABE Survey: Recovery Won't Remain Jobless Very Much Longer

[ProSense]

NABE Survey: Recovery Won't Remain Jobless Very Much Longer

Are the days of the jobless recovery numbered? Yes, according to the latest survey from the National Association for Business Economics that was released Monday.

The Capital Spectator has obtained a copy of the full report. Among the highlights:

• NABE-member economists predict a moderately higher pace of economic growth for this year's fourth quarter compared to the outlook made in October. According to the report, "The fourth quarter of 2009 is now slated for a 3.0% pace of real GDP growth and 2010 is predicted to experience a gain of 3.2% over its four quarters. For the two years combined, growth is expected to be one-half of a percentage point above the forecast made in October. Economic growth is projected to slightly exceed its trend pace—which NABE panelists estimate at 2.7%—over the next five quarters."
  
• The household sector is still expected to post sluggish results for the near term. "Past wealth losses, and initially stagnant employment conditions," the NABE advises, "are predicted to result in lackluster consumer spending gains over the coming year."
  
• Meanwhile, the recovery "will not remain jobless for long," the report forecasts. "With more than 7.3 million jobs lost since December 2007, NABE panelists believe the end of net employment losses is near, with modest declines during the fourth quarter followed by a 'bottom' in the first quarter of 2010 and gains thereafter."

In addition, the report expects that the "nascent housing recovery… will gather momentum" and business investment will be "an engine of growth driving the economic recovery."

Overall, the new NABE survey reaffirms the polling's previous conclusion that the Great Recession is over. "NABE panelists have marked up their predictions for economic growth in 2010 and expect performance to exceed its long-term trend," the survey notes.

The November 2009 NABE Outlook offers the consensus of macroeconomic forecasts made by a panel of 48 professional forecasters. The current survey was taken October 24 through November 5.

Not everyone is predicting doom

[ShortnFiery]

1. Oh, I have to experience this ... it will make Jesus and his miracles look like child's play.

:eyes:

[jenmito]

2. He IS the messiah according to many who disagree with him, so why do you doubt it? n/t

[Demeter]

3. Thank You---I Was Speechless, and You Gave Words to My Thoughts

and you didn't even cuss. I salute you!

[ProSense]

6. There are going to be some people who will remain in denial to the point of arguing

that plus 10,000, 50,000 and 100,000 jobs are not good enough. Bank on it.

[HughMoran]

4. Responded to 80 resumes. Only 3 responded. 1st offer was refused.

We're having a heck of a time finding people. I know other areas of the country are much, much worse, but between seeing our highest orders ever, difficulty in finding components & trouble finding good people, my sense tells me that demand is picking up.

[Cha]

5. The doom and gloomers will scoff at this

but I can't wait for the eventual day when all of the bushcheney decimation of our country gets an ass kicking from our White House!

[msallied]

7. I've been sending out a LOT of resumes on job postings.

Many with state agencies. No calls on any yet, but just seeing job listings is a little heartening. I wasn't seeing any earlier in the year.

[Clio the Leo]

8. The admin has been saying that job growth would start in the 1st quarter of next year...

.... what did that independent report that came out yesterday say?

I love consistency.

[quaker bill]

9. A little more stim

to keep the projects flowing and stabilize state jobs to prevent layoffs in education would help turn the corner quicker and more solidly. A good idea I think.

[ProSense]

10. It's going to be interesting to see what

other initiatives are implemented.