Lou Dobb's dellusional political ambition may have a greater impact than Palin's

[grantcart]

Lou Dobbs is considering a candidacy for President.

This would have an even greater impact on the long term political scene than Sarah Palin's high octaine campaign based on her celerbity mumblings.

In the first place Dobbs has always prided himself in being outside of conventional (or even rational) ways of thinking or operating. As a potential candidate he would almost certainly atleast show a possible interest in an independent party approach so that he could rail against both party's failings. He could continue to "ponder" an independent run for a much longer period of time than he could play at being a Republican candidate, something that will require early money, early staffing and early decisions. This alone would have an impact draining valuable resources, both money and organizers - especially the wild "tea party" crowd from Republican candidates.

Secondly any run, even a minor run, even a hypothetical one would be disasterous for the Republicans. Beyond taking all but 10 states out of reach for the Republicans it would freeze the Republicans on a few critical issues.

A Dobbs campaign, even if he just continues to play around on it, will force all of the Republicans into a competition to see who can be the most hard line advocate against illegal immigration during the primaries. Just as the Republican candidates also muscled up to see who was the biggest hawk on Iraq during the primaries in the last election, the next round would have a "Lou Dobbs litmus test on immigration" that will drive the primary to see who can be the most hostile to hispanics.

The long term results is that Hispanics would face another General Election voting in mass for Democratic candidates and research shows that if you can motivate voters, especially younger voters, to vote for the same party three elections in a row there is a high percentage chance that they will identify with that party the rest of their life.

Lou Dobbs entry into presidential politics could have a massive impact on long term politics by solidifying Hispanic identification as Democrats for an entire generation.

Go Lou Go.

[Cha]

1. All these massive egos

in the republicon party who think they can rule the world.

[grantcart]

2. I think Dobbs relishes running against both parties.

[snagglepuss]

11. I think your fooling yourself if you don't think all politicians have massive egos.

Intellectual capabilities differ but their egos are all big.

[snagglepuss]

3. But don't you think he'd garner support for his outspoken criticism of outsourcing?

I stopped cable several years ago but when I used to watch CNN he seemed to relentlessly attack companies that outsource. No politican seems to be as outspoken as Dobbs on this issue. I'm not defending him, I'm just wondering whether his vocal opposition to outsourcing would impact the Dem or Repug postitions?

[grantcart]

5. yes and I think that he relishes an attack on both parties

I think his ego is stung by being perceived as being a far right nut job and that he would take some leftist populist positions.


This would give him bigger numbers but paradoxical make it even more critical that Republicans don't let him outflank them on immigration.


He is going to move the Republicans into an absolutist far right position on immigration that will be rejected by Hispanics, including some 'value voters' that might vote Republican because of the abortion issue.

[saltpoint]

4. grantcart, I love your posts.

If you ever need anybody to dog-sit or something, give me a call.

Recommended.

[grantcart]

12. very kind thank you saltpoint

[csziggy]

6. Before Dobbs went totally off the rails, he was encouraging people to register as Independents

Because he thought both parties were out of control. I'll bet he thinks all Independents will vote for him. :rofl:

[Ozymanithrax]

7. Dobbs is an unabashed nationalist and isolationist, like Ross Perot...

Under the right circumstances, he could hve a Perot affect, where he pulls a lot of votes from the right. The question remains whether he is deluded enough to think he can win, or would just run to show all those people on boths sides what for.

[grantcart]

8. He could simply "ponder" it for an extended period of time

Something that appeals to his vanity.

More damaging to the Republicans than the votes he would pull is that he would push them far right on immigration in the primaries.

[Ozymanithrax]

9. Palin will have a simlar affect. Her presence and appeal to the fringe...

will push any serious contender to the right. The Tea Party and far right Religous folk will work to force a litmus test on anyone who runs, as will Limbaught and Beck.

[Politicalboi]

10. Let's see the

Birth certificate Lou. Maybe Lou and Beck can work together. Or better yet Dobbs/Beck 2012

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/22/business/media/22beck.html?_r=4&src=twt&twt=nytimes

[54anickel]

13. Just my hunch, but I don't think either Dobbs or Palin are going to run.

They (Palin for sure) are going to be used to keep the rabid right-wingers in the fold while the party moderates itself a bit to win back some of the base that was scared off, especially the upper-class moderates & elites of the Bush base that jumped the GOP ship. Keep the extreme wingers fired up and engaged, then Palin and Dobbs can tell them who to vote for.

Just think back to Gramps playing the moderate and ignoring the Palin factor wackiness. It would have worked if the wackiness wasn't actually on the ticket. Think back to how many Dems, even here on DU actually liked McCain before this last run.

If Dobbs does make a run, it'll be as an Independent and the people financing him will simply be using him as a litmus test to see what kind of numbers he can pull from both parties with special attention to Dems.

2012 is going to give us a http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Third_Way_(centrism)">Third Way candidate from the GOP ticket...sort of like the one on the Dem ticket some 17 years ago. Hell, I think they've all been Third Way since then. That's where the big $$$ flows anyway.

Perhaps George Carlin was correct in his cynicism?