Which 5 pro-public option senators will have to vote to strip the public option?

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

This is weird, but true. Follow along...

A cluster of conservadems say they will not vote for cloture on a PO-havin' bill. For purpose of argument, accept them at their word.

That means the current bill cannot ever reach a final vote.

So the current bill needs to be changed in order to pass.

Any amendment can, and will, be held to a 60 vote standard (to cut off debate on the amendment).

Since there are 41+ pro-public option senators and 41+ anti-public option senators no amendment in any direction can achieve cloture unless some senators vote for cloture on measures they plan to vote against.

So if the public option is stripped from the bill (in order to pass a bill at all) it will happen with the public participation of 4 or 5 pro-public option senators.

Unlike rain on your wedding day, that actually is ironic.

[vaberella]

1. Well Baucus will be numero uno. Maybe Dodd.

I thought Bayh was for the public option, if not he's in.

[IndianaGreen]

2. It is not a real public option, but a Public Option In Name Only

Our corporate Congress will give us mandates, reduction in Medicare, and taxing hard-won union health benefits. Thanks a lot!

[karynnj]

3. It may have to be all of them as most Republicans will not help

and will see that as a means to getting something passed. I have seen times where almost all Senators have voted against poison bill amendments - voting for that is similar and it will make it clearer as to why it is being done.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

4. Very good point

We may see a situation where Dems are trying to get 60 Dem votes to strip the public option out of the bill with Republicans fighting to keep it in.

That's mega-ironic.

[karynnj]

5. In away that is better as all could point to the party line vote and explain it

as a vote to save HCR. (This is not the time for a "Dennis Kucinich" like stand for Senators.

[Aramchek]

6. all bitterness and naysaying aside, the Public Option will be in the Bill that Obama signs

you'll see.

[Clio the Leo]

7. Nah, two things will happen.......

.... Schumer et al will pull off a minor miracle (major?) and get everyone on board with the ill as is.

Or.

Schumer, Landrieu and Carper will come up with an alternative that is accepted by most everyone and will work to get everyone on board before any amendment goes to the floor to be voted on. I dont see a scenario where you have a hand full of formerly pro-PO Sens bucking the rest of the caucus to change the current definition of it. They're going to get more of the party on board before they even attempt it. A more likely scenario is that you have most of the party voting for an amendment to change with a few hold outs to leave it as it is.

They're already moving in that direction.

I need a head count of those conservadems who have said they wont vote for the PO as is and have said that SINCE last Wednesday. I know Lincoln has, has Landrieu as well? Nelson. A WHOLE lot has changed since the middle of last week.

[ProSense]

8. What's weird is the OP math: 82 plus Senators?

"Since there are 41+ pro-public option senators..."?

There are actually 50 plus Senators who will support a public option and at least 43 Senators opposed to it.

The reality is that 17 Senators, including 10 who are solidly public option supporters, will have to side with the anti-public option group.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

9. You are correct. I should have said 10+, not 5.

[BzaDem]

10. I think we would only get Snowe or Collins to assist in any amendment that would enhance chances

of passage.

So I think (or hope?) that such an amendment will pass (if we fail to get cloture for the current bill) with the votes of all 60 Democrats.

[freddie mertz]

11. That is a a hard one.

The coming weeks will provide moments of truth on so many levels.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

12. I fear the "truth" is not one that we're ready to hear.

Namely, that we, as a nation, are totally screwn because we can't find a simple common ground on the most important issues.

[harun]

13. I don't see that as a major problem. Any of the supposedly "conservative"

dem's are for sale. Obama and Reid know they can throw enough pork their way to get them to go along with it. They are just holding out for more $$$.