Colombia Defense Report!!!

[Joanne98]

http://bharatbookresearch.wordpress.com/2008/05/16/defence-security-report-colombia/

Independent 5-year Defence and Security industry forecast for Colombia.
Original Defence and security market research and the defence & security sector trend analysis for the Colombian Defence and Security industry.
Competitive intelligence, Colombian defence & security company rankings and SWOT analyses on international and domestic defence & security companies in Colombia.

The Colombia Defence & Security Report has been researched at source in 2007, and features latest-available data covering all headline indicators; 5-year industry forecasts for Colombia through end-2012; company rankings and competitive landscapes covering national and multinational arms and components manufacturers, electronic and software producers, and companies providing defence solutions, as well as analysis of latest industry developments, trends and regulatory changes in Colombia.

Colombian Defence & Security Report provides professionals, consultancies, government departments, regulatory bodies and researchers with independent forecasts and regional competitive intelligence on the Colombian defence & security industry.

Key Benefits of Report

Benchmark It’s Independent 5-Year Defence & Security Industry Forecast on Colombia to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and strategic business planning in the Colombian defence and security market.
Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the Colombian Defence & Security Sector through reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in Colombia
Exploit The Latest Competitive Colombian Defence & Security Intelligence & Company SWOTS on your peers and competitors through company rankings by sales, market share, investments and leading products and services.
Coverage

SWOT Analysis

Snapshot evaluation of the major issues affecting security, the defence sector, economy and politics, with issues subdivided into ‘strengths’ ‘weaknesses’ ‘opportunities’ and ‘threats’.

Political Risk Assessment

Drawing on It’s twenty-year heritage of Country Risk analysis, this comprehensively evaluates the key risks to domestic politics and
foreign relations, focusing on issues most likely to affect either domestic security or the defence sector.

Security Risk Analysis

It’s proprietary Security Ratings provide a reliable – and country comparable – guide to conflict, terrorism and criminal risk, backed up by our analyst’s latest assessment of each component. Furthermore, drawing on our Country Risk expertise, we assess the state’s vulnerability to a serious – or prolonged – terrorist campaign.

Defence Industry Assessment

Overview of industry landscape and key players; public/private structure, size and value of industry sector; assessment of business operating environment and latest regulatory developments; indepth review of recent procurement trends and developments.

It 5-Year Forecasts

Historic data series and 5-year forecasts to end-2011 for key industry indicators, supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast. Defence expenditure (local currency and US$bn); defence expenditure (% of total budget); defence expenditure (% of GDP); defence expenditure per capita, US$; defence budget (local currency and US$bn); employment in arms production (‘000s); employment in arms production (% of labour force); arms imports (US$mn); arms imports (% of total imports); arms exports (US$mn); arms exports (% of total exports)

It 5-year forecast and analysis of all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.

Company Profiles

Company profiles, including senior executives and full contact details, business activity, products and services, foreign direct investments and projects.

Executive Summary

The Sector At A Glance

Key Insights On The Defence & Security Sector Of Colombia

President Uribe has made good progress in his security and economic policies, but he is unlikely to achieve an end to the militant violence that troubles Colombia. Colombia’s civil war is developing along three separate paths: the demobilisation of right-wing paramilitaries, ongoing peace negotiations with the rebel Ejército de Liberación Nacional (ELN) and an escalation of conflict with the larger rebel group Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC). The paramilitaries have demobilised thousands of troops under a supervised programme, but there are concerns that they are abusing the process and continuing their activities. The ELN has been engaged in faltering negotiations with the government, but there have been promising signs that the guerrilla group is committed to maintaining dialogue with the government. In contrast, the conflict with FARC has escalated following the government’s Operación Colombia Verde in La Macarena Park. The bombardment of FARC positions and the manual eradication of coca crops have led to a change of tactics by the guerrilla group, from full-scale assaults on army garrisons to attacking smaller and more vulnerable targets using smaller units. This requires greater flexibility and mobility in the government’s military strategy, with greater use of task forces and mobile brigades in areas where rebel activity is strongest.

The US is Colombia’s closest ally, bankrolling its anti-insurgency and anti-narcotics campaigns. Colombia has also been the staunchest supporter of the US’ hard-line policy towards Venezuela. However, in the second half of 2005, President Uribe appeared to change tack, adopting a more conciliatory approach towards Venezuela’s left-wing President Hugo Chávez and adopting a more critical stance of US policy.

Colombia possesses the second largest armed forces in South America – troop numbers have increased above the past decade’s average since Uribe took office in 2002, coinciding with the collapse of peace negotiations with guerrillas. Defence spending will come under pressure from budget restraints caused by the need for fiscal austerity measures, and a likely decline in US assistance, following the conclusion of Plan Colombia. Colombia has only one state-run indigenous defence company of significance, which supplies the Colombian armed forces with the majority of its small arms and ammunition. High-tech equipment tends to be obtained from the US or other developed countries, such as Spain.

President Uribe has a powerful mandate to continue his hard-line security policies and economic reform programme – progress must be made on Uribe’s pressing structural reform agenda if Colombia is to avoid a dramatic slowdown from current growth rates. The fate of Colombia’s military expenditure is closely connected to US aid policies. Colombia remains under huge pressure from the US, which funds a large part of its counter-insurgency and counter-narcotics campaign, to address its human rights failings. As long as Colombia remains one of the largest US aid recipients in the world, its decision-making autonomy in terms of procurement planning and expenditure will always be restricted by the superpower.

Table of Contents

Chapter 1 - Executive Summary

SWOT Analysis

Colombia Political SWOT

Colombia Security SWOT

Colombia Defence Industry SWOT

Colombia Economic SWOT

Colombia Business Environment SWOT

Chapter 2 - Political Overview

Domestic Political Outlook

Scandal Threatens Reform Outlook

Implications: Peace Plan Under Threat?

FARC Talks In The Balance?

External Political Outlook

Signed, Sealed But Not Delivered

CAN Vs Mercosur?

Chapter 3 - Security Risk Analysis

It’s Security Ratings

Risk Ratings

Table: Regional Risk Ratings

Table: State Terrorism Vulnerability Index

Regional Security: Latin America

US-Latin America Relations

Narcotics and Security

Columbia Security Risk Rating

Colombia Conflict Risk

Colombia Terrorism Risk

Colombia Physical Safety Risk

Chapter 4 - Security Overview

Internal Security Situation

Civil War?

Paramilitary Demobilisation

FARC And Counter-Insurgency

Negotiations with the ELN

External Security Situation

Colombia-US Relations

Colombia-Venezuela Relations

Colombia-Ecuador Relations

Colombia-Nicaragua Relations

Colombia’s Multilateral Relations – European Union

Colombia’s Multilateral Relations – Organisation of American States

Table: Colombia Changes In Security Situation

Chapter 5 - Military Structure & Defence Industry

Armed Forces

Regional Armed Forces (including conscripted) 2006

International Deployment

Table: Foreign Deployments

Market Overview

Arms Trade Overview

Imports

Industry Trends & Developments

Procurement Trends & Developments

Table: Comparison Of Military Equipment And Proposed Procurements

Chapter 6 - Industry Forecast Scenario

Table: Colombia Defence Sector Historical Data & Forecasts

Table: Colombia Defence Sector Historical Data & Forecasts

Key Risks to It’s Forecast Scenario

Chapter 7 - Macroeconomic Forecast

Moderation To Sustainable Growth

Table: Colombia – Economic Activity

Chapter 8 - Competitive Landscape

Table: Key Players – Colombia Defence Sector

Chapter 9 - Company Profiles

Industria Militar (Indumil)

Chapter 10 - It Forecast Modelling

How we generate our industry forecasts

Defence Industry

Sources

Chapter 11 - Appendix A: Risk Ratings Methodology

Conflict Risk Methodology

Terrorism Risk Methodology

Physical Safety Risk Methodology

Overall Risk Rating

State Vulnerability Index Methodology



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