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I will start by saying that the deal that emerged is less bad than I had anticipated, and yes there are some good things to come out if this.
But I have decided to oppose it, even though I can't say that the road map forward will be any easier if the bill were to be defeated in Congress. Somebody else will have to figure that one out.
First, the deal. I am pleased to see the extension of unemployment insurance and the payroll tax relief. Both measures are stimulative and that money will find its way pumped back into the economy. As for the estate tax ceiling, I have to say that 5 million is a bit high for my taste. I think the ceiling should be more like 3-4 million, but this is one point where I would be willing to compromise.
Extension of the tax cuts for the wealthy is a deal breaker for me, unless more goodies had been thrown into the pot. If Republicans were to agree to stand down (i.e vote for cloture) on DADT repeal then I would probably be on board, as long as the other good items mentioned above were still included.
Tax cuts for the rich do not create jobs. The money just stays locked up in bank accounts, investment schemes and trust funds. Very little of that money actually makes it out the door, so for that price to be worth paying, there had better be a lot of other good stuff in the bill. And this bill regrettably falls short.
What I can't say is where we would go from here if the bill were to fail in Congress, most likely because of an oddball coalition of liberal Democrats and conservative Republicans. None of the scenarios that would follow would be likely to produce a better outcome, and the alternate outcomes could even be worse.
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