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It appears that Al Sadr is already making the deals with the Sunnis that could direct both groups at fighting to get rid of what they consider the "foreign occupiers"...not just the U.S., but "Al Queda" as well.
I see a Saigon, April '75 scenario up ahead as the drain of this occupation on our forces and the growing organization and resolve of the Iraqis will continue to bleed the life and morale out of our forces. Then what? Several sceanrios...it all depends on how we leave and what's left behind.
Each group will carve out its own turf...a state within a state with the Iranians proping up the Shiites and the Saudis bankrolling the Sunnis...with the Kurds left to their own devices. Unfortunately, too much blood has already been shed...not just in the past 4 years, but going back to the Gulf Oil War I, the Iran-Iraq war and so on that I suspect we'll see a segregating of the country (that's going on already) into armed camps/mini states similar to what we saw happen in the Balkans and Lebanon.
No matter what happens, blood is on our hands and it will be a generation or longer before we will come to grips with what's happened here...just as we're just starting to really understand what happened with Vietnam.
Unfortunately, the situation isn't as simple as "terrirists". If such a threat to America exists, it's totally masked right now by the morass in Iraq. Until we clear our eyes there and focus on what caused us to be the target of their hate and scorn in the first place, the seeds for further attacks will remain.
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