Election Day could bring historic split: Democrats lose House, keep Senate

[frontrange]

Source: Washington Post

The question around Washington today is not whether Nov. 2 will be a difficult day for the Democrats who control Congress, but rather how bad it will be.

Read more: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/10/24/AR2010102403202.html?hpid=topnews

[mitchtv]

1. take this shit

somewhere else unrec'd

[Jefferson23]

2. The MSM doing their part to spread more crap around. n/t

[frontrange]

3. That's why Democrats need an aggressive response

Call the Washington Post, send a letter to the editor, respond in some way.

[Mosaic]

4. Democracy by Narrative?

Not by the people? What bullshit! NO!

[Chipper Chat]

5. In 1948 ALL the polls had Dewey winning and a republican takeover of Congress.

Didn't happen.

[Ter]

6. Yet another 1948 reference, gotta love 'em!

n/t

[Towlie]

7. The science of Statistics has come a long way since then.

One of my statistics textbooks used that very example to illustrate the importance of proper sampling. It listed all the mistakes they made that resulted in that embarrassing outcome 62 years ago. Statistics is a science, and like other sciences, it has come a long way in six decades.

Here's http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/">reality from the man we embraced when he told us Barack Obama would win. It's not pretty, but denying it won't change anything. Democrats are going to lose control of the House but will probably retain a slim majority in the Senate.

[Chipper Chat]

8. If the House is in "Hell-no-you-cant"'s hands it won't change much.

For the next 2 years everything, I mean EVERYTHING will die in the Senate.

[savalez]

9. Maybe Towlie, but that was before Nate became part of the MSM.

I can't help but to wonder if he still has 100% total control over his own content.

[wisteria]

15. Simply because someone got it right once does not mean he is right all the time. n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

23. It's Not Just Nate

It's Sabato, Cook, Rothenberg, Barone, and Peter Hart; some of whom are Democrats, each of whom has been generally correct their entire careers, and all of whom who make a living by being right.

[Towlie]

26. I hope you're right but I know you're wrong.

[Ramulux]

16. We arent going to lose the house

I'm sorry but Nate Silver is not infallible. He is putting his career in the hands of Rasmussen, SUSA, and other republican pollsters and it isn't going to turn out well for him. The majority of the polling data this cycle comes from a handful of pollsters with a very clear republican lean, what we have happening is a self-fulfilling prophecy where all the pollsters create these ridiculous likely voter models based off the supposed enthusiasm gap and then act surprised when their results show huge republican wins. Its bullshit, and Nate Silver knows it, that's why he is hedging his bets and saying "oh yeah, this is just such a unique cycle no one really knows what is going to happen and the dems could lose anywhere from 20 to 80 house seats". That means he doesn't know what hes talking about and is admitting that the polling has been so terrible this cycle that you simply cant trust it. Yet he bases his projections completely off this crap polling and everyone eats it up.

Just take a look at some of the ratings he has on races where the dem incumbent hasn't performed as well as usual. There are tons of seats that he rates as "toss-ups" that have shown the dem incumbent winning by a small margin in basically all polling, yet he calls it a toss-up because of an outlier or two and this idea that if an incumbent isn't winning by double digits that means the race is a toss-up. In the end, this all means one thing. Democratic enthusiasm and turnout is being underestimated by the media, its that simple.

[aquart]

10. We have the Senate? Who knew?

[Skittles]

12. yup

coulda fooled me :(

[No Elephants]

19. LOL! Good one.

[PSPS]

11. Why doesn't the WP print the headline they really want: "Democrats, please don't bother voting."

Dear Democrats:

Please don't vote.

If the republicans don't win, we might not be able to rake in more billions from foreign countries and domestic plutocrats for advertising in two years. Furthermore, our plans to further consolidate the media will almost certainly slide through a right wing congress. In fact, we're already measuring the drapes for what we hope will be shuttered newsrooms so that the pages of our "fine publication" can just "write themselves" remotely using the staff at Karl Rove's and the "US" Chamber of Commerce's offices.

Thank you.

Sincerely,

Katharine Weymouth

[Joe Bacon]

13. Typical Presstitution from the Washington COMPOST!

Amazing to see how everyone at a once mighty newspaper mutated into a chorus of Republican stenographers.

[wisteria]

14. Blah, blah, blah another crystal ball prediction post.

Why continue to post this junk? All the votes have yet to be counted.

[Kablooie]

17. Everywhere seems to agree that the GOP will win big and Dems are done.

Of course there are the few articles that say the tide is changing but they are not very common.

I understand why people aren't enamored with Democrats but I can't figure out how the GOP keeps
a middle following with the utter insanity they spew every day.

It will be interesting to see what happens.

[No Elephants]

20. "Everywhere" seems to be controlled by the right.

[opihimoimoi]

18. More than likely the Blues will swamp the Reds..mainly because the GOPers have myopia and negativity

[HipChick]

21. Why bother to vote,since it's going to be such a loss anyway?

Great how the Washington compost wants you to think..M$M keeps pushing RW mem

[No Elephants]

22. Democrats will hold both--if Democrats vote.

[struggle4progress]

24. g o t v

[rocktivity]

25. .

:boring:
rocktivity