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Two weeks out, an 86 is very likely to hold up. That's more than a 6/1 favorite. A 60 is only 3/2.
If you want a reference point, a 60 is the money line equivalent of a 2.5 point favorite in a football game, which is less than home field advantage. An 86 is equal to a 13 point favorite.
In other words, a 60 could easily level out or flip to the same number in reverse without much of a shove. The numbers in that region are very fluid. An 86 probably won't deviate much for a while. There needs to be some play in the number, a bit of uncertainty. Once you get closer to game time, even if the polls don't move at all, that 86 will jump into the low 90s, then mid 90s once the early returns show up. That's the way Intrade works, and probability works. Fewer days/hours remaining for an unforeseen event slowly solidify the lopsided favorites.
I'm a gambler. Intrade made political betting more difficult, there's no question about it. In the '90s and early in the '00s you'd have individual websites putting up their own numbers. That was the wisdom of an individual, the oddsmaker, not a crowd. Gaffes galore. My friends and I were happy to take advantage.
That's extremely rare now. The few sites that put up fixed odds are well aware of Intrade and more or less mirror their prices.
On political races during the fall, Intrade is driven by polls. It's not much different than Nate Silver's work, a mathematical compilation more than insight. Occasionally an oddball late poll will shift conventional wisdom and create a bargain. My rare bets on Intrade these days are when a state with a horrendous polling history errs in the same direction as typical, and bettors don't seem to grasp that they are being misled again. I've never lost a wager on Alaska or Georgia politics. Inevitably the polling is far too friendly to the Democrat and undervalues the most conservative candidate. I wish there were an example in the other direction, a state with overwhelming bargains on a Democrat. I'm not aware of one. New Jersey is known is understate Democratic strength early in a cycle but the numbers on Intrade seemingly take that into account.
In 2004 Intrade had Bush the favorite throughout, until election afternoon. The early exit polls created a stampede of Kerry money and pushed him to 2/1 favoritism for a while. My friend and I got caught up in it and lost a chunk, giving back most of our profit from that cycle.
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