June 1864 Poll: McClellan (D) 51%, Lincoln (R) 41%

[bluestateguy]

OK, no not really.

But that's what the polls would have said if polls had existed back then.

[BlueCheese]

1. So when do we capture Atlanta?

[47of74]

2. Along with...

Do you think the Union will prevail in the conflict?

Yes: 33%
No: 66%

That's probably what all the polls would've said even as late as the beginning of 1865 if they were around then.

[mix]

3. Sherman saved Lincoln with the fall of Atlanta.

What's the analogy there?

[Pab Sungenis]

4. Actually, Lincoln and the Republicans went into the 1864 election

planning to lose. They won.

Woodrow Wilson had gone so far as to make arrangements for a rapid transition in 1916 when he lost as everyone knew he would. He had planned to name his opponent (Charles Hughes) Secretary of State, followed by a prompt resignation by both himself and his VP so Hughes could start his administration four months earlier. He ended up not needing those plans.

The Literary Digest Poll announced that Roosevelt would be defeated in a landslide by Alf Landon in 1936.

We all know about the Dewey-Truman election.

Bill Clinton was actually running THIRD until after the Democratic Convention in 1992.

The Carter-Reagan election was too close to call until the night before Election Day.

Things change on a dime in politics. A week is an eternity, let alone two. We could win big, we could eke by, we could just miss it, or we could lose so spectacularly that it makes 1994 look like a minor adjustment. We won't know what happens until it happens and anyone who insists that they know is full of it.

[Name removed]

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[Pab Sungenis]

6. A summer poll? Of course.

1988, Michael Dukakis led George Bush by 17 points in the summer. He lost by 7 points in the final popular vote. That's a 24 point shift.

[BzaDem]

7. True. But these aren't summer polls. These are mid-October polls by historically accurate pollsters.

They also have the added benefit of being more or less consistent with the last year of polling, with little change.

[Pab Sungenis]

8. Yes. I only mentioned it because

the original subject line was (allegedly) from a June poll.