Republicans Peak Too Soon, Reach Too Far

[bigtree]

from the blog at the DesMoines Register: http://blogs.desmoinesregister.com/dmr/index.php/2010/10/10/republicans-peak-too-soon-reach-too-far/


Simon Rosenberg of progressive think tank – we have those too, just not as well funded as the righty ones – offers a must-read argument that Republicans peaked too soon in this year’s mid-term elections. Key points: (http://prospect.org/cs/articles?article=democratic_upswing)

# “You’ve got trend lines where one party is dropping and one party is gaining — it’s indisputable at this point. If you’re a Republican right now, and you look at this environment, the party that’s dropping a month out usually loses. ”

# “As the Republican ads go up on the air, it’s going to motivate Democratic voters because it’s going to remind the Democrats how much they hate the Republicans. ”

# But Democrats are in part responsible for their own mess: “Part of what went wrong with the Democrats in the last two years is that too many Democrats have political Stockholm syndrome. Many Democrats grew up in an era with a conservative politics that was ascendant and center-left politics was in decline. What happened in 2008 was the conservative jailers left, and were defeated, the door to the ideological jail opened up, the sun was shining, the Democrats could leave, and they didn’t leave. ”

Rosenberg’s analysis goes hand in hand with James Carville’s narrative from earlier in the week that Republicans have overplayed their hand in recent weeks. The Great Bald One offers a positive prognosis for Barack Obama and the Democrats, saying this year’s climate looks less like the Armageddon of 1994 and more like the disaster that wasn’t in 1998:

“In the 1998 election, we conducted national polls starting in September to see if Democrats could push back against the Republican overreach on Ken Starr and impeachment, as Democrats faced the prospect of historic losses in both the House and Senate. Only two weeks before the election did the plates shift and a Democratic counter-message on impeachment became effective in our polls. In the end, Democrats lost no net seats in Senate, gained five House seats and Newt Gingrich resigned.”

The key word here is “overreach.”


read: http://blogs.desmoinesregister.com/dmr/index.php/2010/10/10/republicans-peak-too-soon-reach-too-far/

[saracat]

1. I hope to God this is correct. Make it so!

[ananda]

2. I'm with you, Captain Picard.

Make it so.

[jimlup]

3. This is a mistake the repuklians often make...

Not surprising that it would bit them this time too.

[Stuart G]

4. K and R

[Arkana]

5. Absolutely spot-on.

[DavidDvorkin]

6. I'm afraid to hope

But I'll admit that I'm always afraid to hope. Even when my side wins an election, I breathe a sigh of relief and then start worrying about the next election.

[Motown_Johnny]

7. I assume we will start gaining ground in the last 2 weeks also, but we will lose some seats

most of them are blue dogs from red states that don't vote with us anyways so it isn't that bad


as long as we hold 53 Senate seats and a majority in the House it will look like a huge loss for the (R)s and the tea party as a whole

[zbdent]

8. you're forgetting key facts ...

the "liberal media" wasn't as deep in the pockets of the Republican/Tea party then as it is now ...

The Supreme Court decision which gave corporations the gift of life on that lightning-stricken old castle allows billionaires to dump amazing amounts of money into attack ads which hit the heart and bypass every logical part of the brain (and also don't get as much exposure when debunked as they do when they're aired).

[B Calm]

10. Did you know we have a black man in the white house who pulled the plug on grandma. .

[Scuba]

9. Let's make sure you're right....

...
The ONLY thing that matters at this point is getting voters to the polls on November 2nd.

You can help do that.

Volunteer down at Democratic HQ. They need people to make phone calls, knock on doors, compile lists of local events, do data entry, etc.

Help others get their early ballots in case they can't get out on election day.

Get a yard sign.

Talk to your cousin/nephew/aunt etc.

We need to focus on this or the next two years of DU will be not about how to improve the country, but about limiting damage.

thanks,

Scuba