GOP Nightmare: DEMS Can Flip TEN REPUB SEATS!!!

[Beetwasher]

--snip--

#47: We can win Washington.
#48: We can win Wisconsin.
#49: We can win West Virginia.
#50: We can win California.
#51: We can win Delaware.
#52: We can win Connecticut.

#53: We can win Nevada.
#54: We can win Illinois.
#55: We can win Ohio.
#56: We can win Pennsylvania.
#57: We can win Colorado.
#58: We can win New Hampshire.
#59: We can win North Carolina.
#60: We can win Alaska.

#61: We can win Missouri.
#62: We can win Kentucky.
#63: We can win Iowa.
#64: We can win Indiana.
#65: We can win Louisiana.
#66: We can win Arkansas.
#67: We can win the Florida three-way.
#68: We can win Arizona. That'd be 68 danged seats right there.

--snip--

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/9/15/902132/-GOP-Nightmare:-Democrats-Can-Flip-10

My comment: Granted this is an extremely optimistic scenario and not very likely, but with our now almost assured safe seat in DE, the Repubs really don't have a chance at getting a majority while OUR chances of a NET gain have increased somewhat (but are still very unlikely).

[sinkingfeeling]

1. Don't think Blanche can win in Arkansas.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

2. Not me, either! n/t

[Beetwasher]

3. I Agree, That's Probably A Goner

n/t

[jtrockville]

10. I wonder if Halter would have fared better?

[bushisanidiot]

4. Free Republicons on suicide watch

.

[SteppingRazor]

5. Boozman's up by something like 30 points in Arkansas. Indiana ain't much better.

Basically, numbers 55-68 are pipe dreams.

Oh, and number 55 is the most likely Dem. pickup, and as I said, it's a pipe dream.

[Beetwasher]

6. Nonsense, OH, PA, NH, NC, AK, KY, IA Are Quite Doable And Far From "Pipe Dreams"

Agreed, some are very far fetched, but not those.

[Skidmore]

8. I sure hope IA is. I've been trying to get Conlin yard signs

and find out about volunteering and have heard nothing from her campaign yet in spite of signing up for such on the webform.

[elehhhhna]

32. find your county's party hq - they are always more responsive

[SteppingRazor]

35. Hmm. I think you're wrong.

First off, PA isn't a pickup anyway. But throw it in with the rest just for argument's sake. In OH, PA, and NH, all largely purplish states (and NH only recently so, having been a reliably red state through the 2006 cycle.), the Republican is up by 8 to 10 points. In the latest poll in NC, Burr is up by 24, and the aggregate average of the recent polls has him up by about 15, meaning that he's gaining ground -- and rapidly -- not losing it. Iowa is a purplish state, but Grassley is up by about 20. Finally, in Alaska and Kentucky, you have reasonably close elections (the Republican is up by 7 or 8 points in each case) but in traditionally Republican states in which massive turnout by Democrats is the only thing that can erase such a lead, and this is, as you and every other political junkie out there knows, not exactly a banner year for Democratic turnout.

In short, the Democrats will not be picking up a seat this year. Now, I say all this with the caveat that, of course, Democrats should fight for every single seat in the House and the Senate as if every American life depended on it. But if you want sober, objective prognostication, I can't honestly give the Dems a single pickup this year, and -- even with the turn about in Delaware -- the best case scenario is that they lose 3 seats.

[PBS Poll-435]

9. We got a little dirt on Dr. Boozman.

:D

[sinkingfeeling]

38. His record of voting with the Bush administration 96% of the time and thereby

increasing the national debt by over $5 trillion should do him in. Alas, it won't because Mrs. Lincoln also voted some of the largest budget busters.

I yell at the TV every morning when they run Boozman's 'U of A' ad and he claims 'I'll balance the budget and stop Pelosi and Obama's job killing legislation."

[freebrew]

14. #61 is pretty likely, it seems.

NO ONE likes Blunt.

(I Hope, anyway)

[PBS Poll-435]

7. Arkansas is going to be tough, but I think it can happen

I personally will be knocking on doors in western AR.

[Beetwasher]

11. That Would Be Terrific!

Good for you!!

[C_U_L8R]

12. Lets not get over confident

Lets GOTV first !

[NutmegYankee]

13. There are no Connecticut Republican seats

We are fighting to keep a Democrat in the senate seat.

[Beetwasher]

16. Errr, And That's Obviously Not One We Would "Flip"

There are others in there as well that we are not "flipping". So what?

[NutmegYankee]

18. I was basing it on the title.

I follow you now.

[Sinistrous]

15. I hope Sestak's numbers improve once he

begins campaigning.

[Beetwasher]

17. Yeah, That One Really Bothers Me

I really wish Sestak were doing better and I hope he really gets his campaign kicking soon.

[Sinistrous]

26. With emphasis on the kicking.

Toomey is such a font of assholery that Joe could pick a theme of the day and not exhaust all that is available.

[progressoid]

19. Uh, Iowa?

The best poll I've seen, we are still 8 points behind Grassley. Most polls show him ahead in the teens, even 20 point range.

But, hey, anything can happen I suppose.

[Beetwasher]

20. Like I Said, This Is Very Optimistic

But there are less optimistic one's in which we still have a net gain. Still very unlikely, but not as far fetched any more.

[gratuitous]

21. The Republicans also don't enjoy their standard 3-1 money advantage

There are good chances for defending seats and picking up seats in both the House and the Senate. I am unpersuaded by all the Republican happy talk, and I think the Democrats will hold their majorities in both houses of Congress.

[Beetwasher]

22. Yup, Good Point

n/t

[gratuitous]

23. Another good point I just read at Daily Kos

Apparently, there are some Republicans who really, truly believed their August hype about re-taking the majorities in both the House and the Senate. Right now, in the aftermath of the pyrrhic victory of Ditzo O'Donnell, there's some pretty hard words being exchanged between Senate Republicans and Jim DeMint about DeMint's endorsement of O'Donnell. O'Donnell's victory will pretty much guarantee that Biden's Delaware Senate seat remains in Democratic hands, and that was one seat Republicans were really counting on to flip.

If the Establishment vs. Tea Bagger fracas happening now is any indication, when the Republicans fail to deliver on their own overhyped predictions, there will be some serious intraparty fighting in the GOP. They'll start off pointing fingers, and end up lobbing bombs.

[Beetwasher]

24. It's Going To B Glorious!

[LiberalAndProud]

27. With corporate spending in the mix, does that matter?

"Conservative and business groups, fueled by newly legal large donations from corporations, are mounting an effort to elect Republican candidttes that could rival political spending by labor unions and liberal organizations for the first time in years."


Wall Street Journal
Print Edition
Tuesday, September 14, 1010
bt Brody Mullins

[county worker]

25. Dems have to go to the polls for this to happen.

I'll hold my bet until the enthusiasm gap goes the other way.

[tritsofme]

28. Was this list written on 11/5/2008?

The writer of this article suffers from some serious delusion. Sounds like the teabaggers who are still telling themselves that O'Donnell is a lock for the Senate seat in DE.

[Beetwasher]

29. U Have A Problem With Optimism?

[tritsofme]

30. Optimism is healthy, this is delusion.

I think someone got lost in their beer.

[Beetwasher]

34. How Is Exhorting People To Work Hard Towards Winning Delusional?

I don't see any predictions that we WILL win all these seats, do you? But there's no reason to NOT work as hard as we can to TRY. Unless you'd like to dampen people's enthusiasm for some reason.

[Scurrilous]

31. K & R

:thumbsup:

[Alexander]

33. Not really.

Arizona simply cannot be won. There are too many idiots and racists there who will show up for McCain.

Arkansas is pretty much lost. So is Indiana.

Iowa and Louisiana don't look good, though I will concede a couple of polls have them somewhat close. It's highly unlikely we win either of those seats.

Alaska shouldn't even be considered. Even in races where the Democrats poll ahead, they still lose. Ask Tony Knowles. Begich polled way ahead of Stevens and it took the absentee ballots to put him over the top.

North Carolina, Ohio, Kentucky, Missouri, and Colorado show polls that aren't great for Democrats. I would consider it a really good night if we won even two of those seats.

Meek's chances of winning in Florida are very slim, and even if Crist wins, we can't count on him being a Democratic vote.

Pennsylvania, maybe. I'd say that's about a 50-50 chance. Maybe New Hampshire, though I'd say our chances are better in Pennsylvania.

The rest of them, I'll agree, we'll probably win. That's 54 seats right there. Frankly, if we broke 55 I'd be thrilled.

[Beetwasher]

37. No One Said It Was A Sure Thing, But It's Within The Realm Of Possibility

n/t

[David Zephyr]

36. I like your attitude.

K&R.