The pollsters are lying to you about Kendrick Meek!

[Radical Activist]

Let's face it. The #1 campaign tactic for Charlie Crist is to scare Democrats into thinking they have to choose between him and Rubio. Meek is just too far down in the polls, right?

Let's do a reality check. The most recent Quinnipiac poll showed him with only 39% to 29% over Greene in the Democratic primary with the rest undecided. All but one poll showed Meek getting under 50%.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/fl/florida_senate_democratic_primary-1096.html

What really happened on election day?

As of now, the results show meek winning with 57% to 32%.

The polls were between 8-20 points off the final results. The polls are a meaningless fraud!

The same thing will happen in the general election. Many of the undecided voters will break for Meek. The polls will lie to you about how far behind he is. Crist will use those polls to get Democratic votes.

Only a sucker would base their vote on what the polls say.

[LAGC]

1. Either Meek or Crist should step aside.

Otherwise they ARE going to split the left-leaning vote, and Rubio will win by default, and that we cannot let happen.

[Radical Activist]

8. No. Two Republicans are splitting the right-leaning vote.

All Democrats have to do is vote for the Democrat and win with 40%. It's the Republicans who are split. It's a gift to the Democratic Party if we don't fall for the polling mind games.

[wmbrew0206]

10. Disagree. The republicans are pretty united behind Rubio. Look at the number that came

out to vote for him tonight. Those numbers were not for the governors race.

Also, this is still the South and you have a lot Democrats that won't vote for Meeks because he is black and will vote for Crist instead.

[SwampG8r]

27. rubio had an opponent on the ballot

he got big numbers beacuse the pubs picked him over whoever ran against him
thats his top out number
he peaked tonight and if we stay together meek wins
crist is going to fuck us
he is a pub

[The Backlash Cometh]

30. You and I see it coming.

Nobody else does. Crist is a cronyist with lots of Republican friends.

[wmbrew0206]

40. Rubio did not have a serious opponent on the ballot. The other two were no threat.

[The Backlash Cometh]

31. More reason to vote for Meeks.

If you really believe in Democratic values, I mean.

[SwampG8r]

74. i will be voting meek

AGAIN in november
i am sick of the "lesser of two evils" bullshit
know what you get when you vote for the lesser of 2 evils?
evil
thats what you get
evil

[LAGC]

75. Aren't we already settling for "lesser of the evils" by choosing Democrats?

I don't know about you, but my politics (and many people's on this board, I suspect) are much closer to the Green Party's platform than the DNC's. But I know, BASED ON POLLS, that the Green Party has no chance. Therefore I vote for the lesser evil: Democrats!

In this case, unless something miraculous happens between now and November, Meek stands no chance of being anything but a spoiler. So the question is: do we want to see Crist or Rubio in power? As much of a waffler as he may be, I think its safe to say that Crist is a considerably safer bet than Rubio!

You do the math.

[SwampG8r]

77. if your math says crist is different than rubio

you need a new calculator
i agree my personal beliefs fall more toward the greens but in florida that means nothing and to get anyone progressive into office requiires unity
i say we unite behind meek the democratic candidate and not the "former" GOP guy

[LAGC]

78. See my post #22.

Crist has moved to the left on several significant issues. He could very well caucus with the Dems should he get elected. The Repubs have thoroughly disowned him.

But by all means, support and promote Meek! I just hope you'll have the good sense to be pragmatic if his poll numbers haven't significantly improved by November.

There is a difference between Crist and Rubio -- on women's rights, the environment, and several other issues -- we've seen what teabaggers have done to other states. Do you really want to let that happen to Florida by allowing Rubio to win, if it looks like Meek will play the role of spoiler? The less damage the elected placeholder gets away with until a better candidate comes along, the easier it will be to fix it later.

[SwampG8r]

81. i find it interesting that everyone i have this discussion with

acts like meek is the "spoiler"
the spoiler is crist
not meek
meek ran and got the party nomination
crist could not win with his party so he decided to try to split both parties
he is a turd
and HE is the spoiler

[JustAnotherGen]

83. Awesome point!

And I also like the concept of when you vote for the lesser of two evils - you still get evil. ;-)

[The Backlash Cometh]

93. Moved to the left. har, har, har.

The man will move to the left, the right and every position inside the compass because he's up for sale. He's old guard Florida. And maybe not even Florida. Remember back whenever when there were scandals because people were selling pardons because they said they knew Clinton? That's the kind of environment you're going to get under Crist. Everything will be up for sale. Even our law enforcement agencies.

[SwampG8r]

26. please shout this from every rooftop

[Mojorabbit]

18. +10000 nt

[JerseygirlCT]

42. You really think that's going to happen? And should any really

"left-leaning" person vote for Crist? Seriously?

He only looks better in comparison to Rubio. There is a Democrat in the race.

[Chisox08]

69. No Rubio and Crist will split the vote of the righties

If the democrats get out and support Meek he can win. Rubio is a teabagger and Crist is a Repuke so niether one of them should get any left leaning votes.

[KaryninMiami]

2. Sorry and sadly, I disagree.

There are a lot of Dems here who are not big fans of Meek and are not happy about voting for him. Others of course will. I personally am not a huge fan, but I'd vote for him over Crist any day because we know he'd vote with us on the issues, whereas I don't really trust Crist. But, the possibility of Rubio getting in is terrifying and frankly, I just don't think Meek has the support he needs to beat Rubio. And as things heat up here, unless some horrible secret breaks about Rubio that turns the middle of the road Republicans to Crist, Meek cannot beat him. But Crist, with enough Democrats (regardless of the reason he lures them in to vote for him), can beat Rubio. But I know quite a few Dems who as of now, are planning to vote for Crist.

Had Greene won the primary, it would have made it much easier because voting for Crist over Green, would have actually been much easier to do then Crist over Meek.

At least things look good for Alex Sink. Thank goodness.

Life continues to be strange here in Florida.

[The Backlash Cometh]

3. I won't vote for Crist.

And I will vote for Meeks although it does seem that his party loyalty may be blinding him.

[wmbrew0206]

7. I am probably going to vote for which ever of the two has the best chance

To beat Rubio. Not happy about it but I would rather have Crist then Rubio.

[The Backlash Cometh]

29. Well, there will be a total of four votes for Meeks from my household.

Family yields to my opinion on everything but the presidential elections.

[LostinVA]

33. It is against DU rules to say you are voting for Third party candidates

[wmbrew0206]

46. OK, I am voting for Meek and will feel I did the right thing even as Rubio is sworn in as a Senator.

[DirkGently]

59. Not Crist. Or so I've heard. Make a better argument.

[chowder66]

5. Looking at the number of voters in FL

is scary. Seems way more are coming out for the republicans.

[Radical Activist]

11. The facts of the misleading polling data cannot be disagreed with.

They are facts. Making decisions about whether Meek can win based on polls is foolish. Meek only needs 35%-40%.

[wmbrew0206]

14. Just because the polling for the Meek vs Greene race off doesn't mean the polling of the general is

off. Ad to the fact that not a lot of quality polls were done for the Greene vs Meek so there is a higher likelihood of error.

There have been multiple polls that have shown Meek never gets near 30% in the general. There is an extremely small chance that the multiple polls all showing the same results are all drastically wrong. All those polls at Crist and Rubio around 35% and Meek in the mid-20's.

Add to the fact that the Rethugs are really excited about Rubio and they came out heavily tonight to vote for him and Meek getting to 35% to 40% will be extremely difficult.

[Radical Activist]

16. Multiple polls by different companies were all drastically wrong

about the primary. They're the same polls being used to report on the general election. State level polls are routinely far off.

Meek did more than 10% better in the final results than what polls were showing. If Meek is polling at 25% before election day and he once again does more than 10% better, then he's the winner. The only way he loses is if Democrats are psyched out by bogus polls.

Meek was outspent 5 to 1 and still won my a very large margin. He's got support.

[wmbrew0206]

20. I admire your enthusiasm about Meek but I don't think you are being realistic about his chances.

There are other points about how primary polls and results are a lot different than for a general further down.

You are also missing the point that Crist is a decent alternate choice for certain white democrats in northern and western Florida who won't vote for a black candidate.

Are you familiar with the different areas of Florida and their voting tendencies?

[Radical Activist]

21. I'm aware that this race can be won with 35% of the vote.

I've also paid attention to how far off state polls are consistently, even in general elections, in any state, in every election year. News agencies don't like to report it but you can find the info. Especially more than two months before an election.

[LAGC]

23. You're right in that a lot can change in two months.

Gaffes can happen, new/damaging information can come out, etc. We should wait and see what the polls look like the days before the election. That's what counts. Because the actual end-of-the-day voting result is usually within a few points spread of the last poll taken before an election. So if there's a 10-point gap between Meek and Crist, naturally Democrats should pick whoever's higher, so that Rubio doesn't win. Polls do matter that close to an election.

[Radical Activist]

24. No, that isn't true in state level polls.

Pollsters base their argument on their best national poll taken the day before a Presidential election. That doesn't apply to state polls. They are notoriously off, as were the polls taken for the primary within the past week. If Meek is only 10 points behind in the polls then he could be the winner.

[LAGC]

25. Well, I hope you're right.

I trust Floridians to make the right choice when the moment of truth arrives.

[The Backlash Cometh]

36. And don't trust Gallop polls

They count Republicans votes twice.

I'm just sayin'.

[wmbrew0206]

39. I see what you are saying about polls being off, but Meek has hit his ceiling on support.

This is one of those times knowing Florida and its different regions helps you understand a lot about a state wide race.

Meek will do well in Miami, West Palm Beach, around the Muck, parts of Tampa, Orlando, Tally, and Jacksonville. However, he is not going to do well north of the I-4 corridor outside of Tally and Jacksonville. Also being an African American is going to hurt him in these areas with a lot of whites who would normally vote Democratic. Remember that northern Florida is more like south Georgia or Alabama than the rest of Florida.

Then there is the question of who is actually supporting Crist. From the looks of it, it is not the rethugs, as they turned out in huge numbers last night to vote for Rubio who was basically running unopposed once Crist became an independent. The rethugs had about 1.2 million voters turn out to vote for Rubio vs around 850k for Democrats in a contested senate election. Rubio had about 1 million votes vs Meeks 520k. Even if all those who voted for Greene vote for Meek, you are still down about 300k.

Where are the 300k+ going to come from? (And he will likely need since a lot of D's are going to defect to Crist). You have a fairly popular governor who is running as an independent and has much better name recognition than Meek. Crist is going to get at least 40% of the independents, and you'll have Rubio, Meek, and Crist are all fighting for the rest. I don't see Meek being about to pick up enough independents to over come that 300k+ gap.

[Radical Activist]

64. One thing about candiates with low name recognition

is that they haven't hit their ceiling of support. Those are the candidates with the most room to grow.

[wmbrew0206]

90. They have when you have a popular governor running as an Indy and a Rethug that the

right wing is crazy about.

[The Backlash Cometh]

34. Your kind of thinking ah-scares me.

You're the reason why I'll never be a Democrat.

[The Backlash Cometh]

32. Yeah, look what happened to McCollum

**snort**

[The Backlash Cometh]

28. Good news for Meeks:

Trial lawyers are supporting Crist. Nobody seems to like them.

[suzie]

43. The trial lawyers came out and supported Barack Obama with not only their funds,

but with going to the local Supervisors of Election and making sure that voting was done properly.

But, by all means, let's trash the trial lawyers who actually helped us win in 2008.

Maybe we can eliminate their support in 2012.

[The Backlash Cometh]

65. I don't believe in payola.

They are getting repaid because Democrats are not pursuing tort reform. They don't get to set the agenda for the rest of us, otherwise.

[suzie]

76. Perhaps you should contact the Obama organizing effort or maybe the state Democratic Party

and suggest that Democrats should avoid using the assistance of trial lawyers next Florida presidential election.

Maybe refuse all their contributions as well.

[The Backlash Cometh]

92. If they're going to take over the choice of who we get to vote for,

maybe that's the best option?

I wonder how many of the lawyers who represented the Republican side actually did it pro bono, and they actually won.

[suzie]

97. Let me see if I can get this straignt?

According to you, Republicans won the 2008 presidential vote in Florida?

And you're railing against the trial lawyers, then holding up the lawyers on the Republican side as more virtuous? Or more successful? Or something?

I'm having a little trouble following your reasoning, which seems to tilt toward Republican hostility toward trial lawyers.

[tridim]

4. Watch it happen all over the country.

I have a feeling the "Republicans WILL gain seats" meme is from the same PR shop as the the "Anti-incumbent sentiment" BS.

[Radical Activist]

12. It's campaigning.

Whether the acknowledge it or not.

[wmbrew0206]

6. Sorry but Meek is just not a strong enough candidate in this race.

He is going up a fairly popular governor and the former speaker of the house of Florida. They both have way more name recognition. Meek is only really well known in the Miami area and among Democrats.

He might have had a chance in a normal D vs R election but not this one and not this year.

[Radical Activist]

13. The thing about polls

is that the candidate with low name recognition is always the one that has the most room to grow in terms of gaining support. People will find out who Meek is before election day.

And if the general election polls are as far off as the primary polling then Meek could be in the lead right now. You don't know.

[The Backlash Cometh]

37. Actually, the Scott fellow showed how you take down Crist.

Spread the information about how he received campaign money from the Greer stinky mess--and how he interfered or stalled investigations. It shouldn't be too hard to do with Crist since he has at least one crooked Republican supporter who has a questionable past.

Hear that Meeks? Do what Scott did and post a full page add writing down in simple words how he was connected to the Greer mess, or some other questionable campaign fund raiser person.

[AtomicKitten]

9. Sorry, I'm not convinced. Meek is and always has been running in third place.

Odds are Crist is the only one who can take the teabagger.

Virginia is a prime example of the consequences of electing teabaggers. Gov McDonnell and VA AG Cuccinelli are systematically stripping away same sex civil rights and impeding access to safe and LEGAL! abortions vis a vis outrageous regulations.

If I lived in Florida, I'd wait until the day before the election and take a look at the polling and decide then. IMO defeating the teabagger is and should be the #1 priority.

[JCMach1]

80. Exactly! Crist has NEVER lost a state-wide race and won't this time either

Why? Democratic and Independent votes...

There is still a sizable number of moderate and conservative democrats in Florida.

And, in Florida, state-wide victories (and sometimes losses) have been hugely important in determining the outcome of Senate races.

[Awsi Dooger]

15. Can't compare a primary to general election

Primaries are incredibly fragile. I've learned that the hard way, many losing stances and often by shocking margin. Likeminded people can tilt together in the late going, producing wild results. In this case, Greene saturated the airways for months and slowly gained hesitant support until he was exposed late and the numbers caved in. That will hardly be the dynamic in a general election, with at least 80% locked in right now.

Rubio as a Republican in this climate will get into the low to mid 30s at minimum. Crist as independent doesn't have that guarantee but his support won't dip below mid to high 20s. Meek's low tide is low 20s.

That's the scenario, a battle for less than 20% and we're forced to nearly sweep every one of them for Meek to have a chance. I posted similar about Connecticut in 2006 and bet heavily on Lieberman based on the logical distribution, even as posters here were convinced Lamont could stage a comeback similar to the primary.

[Radical Activist]

17. You should look up information about polls and black voters.

1) African-American voters often turn up undecided in polls and only break close to election day.
2) Polls also under-represent African-American voters.

This is a conversation I had many times when Obama ran for US Senate and then President. It turned out to be consistently true. It's one reason Obama was always underestimated.

General elections are different, but the inaccuracy of state level polls is consistent. Basing your vote on them is foolish.

[The Backlash Cometh]

38. It sounds like Meeks needs to connect with the black communities

around the state and get them to vote early to make sure their votes get counted.

[Ozymanithrax]

19. Like most Republicans, Crist is a fear monger...

Fear Teaparty Rubio.
Fear extreme right wing Rubio. (That from Crist is a joke.)

Charlie Crist makes no promises, and will caucus with whomever he wants. Just say no to the GOP, even when he says he is an independent.

A vote for Crist is a vote for the GOP.

[LAGC]

22. You've got to give credit where credit is due though.

He was on the right side of the teacher pay bill, voted against a bill requiring women getting abortions to have to have an ultra-sound done beforehand, and spearheaded a decent environmental proposal for part of the Everglades that stalled, but was a landmark in its scope. He notably snubbed Bush in '08 and supported Obama on his "ground zero mosque" position.

Granted, he's still on the wrong side of gay marriage and some other issues, but he is coming around. He's openly renounced the Republican Party. I think its safe to say he's going to siphon off a considerable number of left-leaning voters. If Meek is still polling in the low 20's or even teens come the week before Election Day, are you willing to see the fascist teabagger Rubio win just so you could feel "warm" inside by voting for a "D"?

Voting in America is still about voting for the lesser of the evils. Until that system changes, we are stuck with the choices we've got. Not everyone was spell-bound by Obama in 2008 either, but they knew the risk of allowing Palin to win. Sometimes you've got to put idealism aside and be pragmatic. Then PUSH, PUSH, PUSH your candidates further to the left once they win.

[wmbrew0206]

41. Crist was on the right side of those issues because it was where he needed to be

to get Democratic votes in this election. If it wasn't for that and he was still running as a Rethug, he would have been on the wrong side of all those issues.

[Ozymanithrax]

44. When he wasn't teaparty enough for Republians...

he pandered to the left.

Don't support a blatant panderer.
Nothing good can come of it.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

45. The Teabaggers Didn't Turn On Crist

The Teabaggers didn't turn on Crist until he showed respect to President Obama by greeting him and traveling with him when he came to Florida to promote his stimulus package. That's when his Republicant support collapsed.

Crist>>>>>Jeb Rubio

Meek can't win.

[Ozymanithrax]

47. Actually, if Democrats don' vote for Crist...

he draws what votes he will get from Rubio.
And Democrats can win.

I mean really, why elect another GOP Clown like Crist.

There is a Democrat in the race.
Supporting a Republican in sheep's clothing should not be an option.

***edited***

[DemocratSinceBirth]

48. You Forgot There Are Independents In Florida

I will do as I have done in every election. I will vote for the most electable progressive candidate.

[wmbrew0206]

49. I find it interesting that the people that are from Florida all pretty much agree

Meek is a long shot to win. However all the out of state posters here are trying to convince us that he can.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

50. Marco Rubio Scares The Hell Out Of Me

Meek can't win.

[Ozymanithrax]

54. Clearly, the terrorists have won... n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

57. .

.

[wmbrew0206]

55. Agreed. Not this election and not this year. People need to realize that he is the

sacrificial lamb this year. This was going to be a tough election to start with but throwing Crist in as an independent kill any chance a democrat had to win.

Crist is going to get the support of the different groups that normally support democrats because he has the best chance of winning. That is going hurt Meek and place him at a big disadvantage in this race.

Overall someone had to run and Meek will benefit from running by getting his name out there and hopefully will get a political appointment from Sink after she wins. He is young and has a lot of time to win a lot of elections

[Ozymanithrax]

71. Voting for Crist out of fear of Rubio is short sighted..

This will turn out badly, and the Democrats of Florida will be to blame because they nominated someone they were afraid could not win and voted for a kinder gentler Conservative out of fear of Rubio.

If Crist should win the time will come when we all wish he was as liberal as Lieberman.

[wmbrew0206]

89. Which would you rather have? Crist or Rubio because Meek is not really an option.

[Ozymanithrax]

51. Crist is at least as Progressive as George W. Bush...n/t

[DemocratSinceBirth]

52. If Bush, Hitler, And An Unelectable Candidate Were The Only Candidates Running I Would Vote For Bush

n/t

[Ozymanithrax]

53. Hitler is Dead...and nobody like Hitler is running.

Bush isn't running.

Crist will be a fine Republican serving Republican and corporate causes. He will chuckle at any Democrat he cons into voting for him.

The media has certainly done their job selling the unelectable title.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

56. Respectfully, What Makes You An Expert On Florida State Politics?

There's not one dispassionate analyst in the state, regardless of ideology, who believes Meek can win.

If you can cite one and his path to victory for Meek I might be persuaded.



I think you should worry about Brown and Boxer beating the California Teabaggers and Floridians will worry about beating the Florida Teabaggers.

[Ozymanithrax]

72. A conservative Republican is a Conservative Republican...

And Crist is a monumental bad choice for anyone who purports to be either liberal or progressive.

Here in California, a lot of polls have Fiorina leading. I will not vote for Fiorina or any other piece of conservative dog chow because I think Boxer will lose. It is not in my interest to vote for a Conservative. Here in my congressional district, Duncan Hunter Jr. is cruising to a win. I will still vote for a Democrat because Hunter is a big a ass-wipe as his father.

Perhaps Meek will not win. That doesn't mean that Democrats should support a conservative douche bag like Crist. To have a open support for a Conservative Republican over a Democratic Candidate indicates that "Democratic" should be removed from the "Underground."

[DemocratSinceBirth]

85. Of Course You Should Vote For Boxer

She's the only candidate in the race that can beat Fiorina. In Florida Meek has no chance of catapulting over Crist and beating Rubio. You know who Rubio wants Democrats to vote for? Meek, that's who. Because he knows that's a vote he will never get anyway but it is a vote Crist might have got.


Crist is every Meek voter's second choice. Rubio needs Meek to do well to win. The irony....

[DCBob]

35. Campaigns are run based on polls.. they are not perfect but they generally get it right..

especially when multiple polls from various sources all have the same numbers. If the election were held today Meek would finish a distant third. I would bet a boat load of grapefruit on that.

[Radical Activist]

58. Look up other races from yesterday. The polls were widely innacurate.

Even races they called correctly were far off the actual vote total. You can bet a boatload of gray bananas. The results yesterday speak for themselves. And campaigns that run based on polls often lose.

[wmbrew0206]

60. However, polls are still used by a lot of people/groups to decide where they are going to

put there money and resources.

Meek is well behind both Crist and Rubio. Most people/groups are going to look at those and decide where to put their money. Whether they are accurate or not, the more polls you see showing Crist & Rubio in the mid-30's and Meeks in the low-20's, the more it going to hurt the Meek campaign in terms of funding.

Try telling a group of trial lawyers or teacher's union reps that they should put their money in to the campaign of a candidate that is 10 points down in a three way race because all the polls are "widely inaccurate."

I am sorry but we need to focus on the races we have the best chances of winning and the Florida senate race is not one of them.

[Radical Activist]

62. You make a good case for why the polls should be ignored.

Are you a Green?
We have a Democrat who just did much better than expected against a well funded challenger. He has shown he has the organization and funding to have a serious chance at winning.

[wmbrew0206]

66. He did well against a candidate that everyone though was a scum bag.

Greene's numbers start going up until the public found out what a scum bag and opportunist the guy is and the bottom dropped out. He was never a serious challenger but a guy with more money than political sense. I would be interested to see the trend lines on recent polling and if the final result was along the predicted trend line.

I am a Democrat. Like a lot of other Florida Democrats here, I don't think Meek has much of a chance. If you lived in this state you would probably see that too. Just because he beat a political newbie, who was a terrible candidate, with a lot of money, does not mean he has a good chance of winning the general.

If you don't take our word for it, tell me why are the trial lawyers, normally a very supportive group of Democrats, backing Crist? The teacher's union might support him too, along with other traditional Democratic groups.

[Radical Activist]

68. Did you even read my post?

You wrote: "I would be interested to see the trend lines on recent polling and if the final result was along the predicted trend line"

That's what my post is about. I linked the polling data and it was way, way off from the final result. That's the whole point of this thread.

[wmbrew0206]

70. Did you even look at the link you posted?

The polling wasn't off, most of the undecideds broke for Meek. Wildly wrong would be if Greene was up or tied with Meek at around 45%, but that is not what the polls show. The polls show that Meek was up by about 10% to 15% with a lot of undecideds left. When those undecideds chose, they went to Meek heavily, not surprising with Greene's collapse.

The PPP poll was pretty much dead on.

The RCP average is made up of a combination of polls. Most of those polls had a large amount of undecideds. The average poll had about 25% to 30% undecided. Seeing as the Greene campaign imploded down the stretch, the undecideds broke for Meeks.

There is nothing nothing wildly inaccurate about the polling data. Go back and take a look at the polls and you will see that Greene peaked around late July/early August and then his numbers started trending down from a high of 35% to 31%. During the same time Meeks numbers started rising from the high 20's to the mid-40's. The undecideds broke his way and the final numbers were right along the trend line. Maybe a little bit above it, but Greene's implosion probably accounted for that.

[Radical Activist]

73. And the undeicdeds will break for Meek again in the general.

People know who Crist and Rubio are. They don't know who Meek is. If people are undecided it means they're not happy with the candidates they know about (Crist and Rubio) and will go for the other candidate when they learn more about him.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

86. Crist Has A 56% Approval Rate As Governor

That's incredible given how economically crippled this state is.

[wmbrew0206]

88. Do you have data to support that? Or is that just your opinion?

Seeing as Florida is light red rather than light blue, there is not any evidence that undecided will break to Meek, especially if he is polling 5% to 15% behind the leader.

[Radical Activist]

94. Why are you trying so hard?

Data? This is "reading polls 101." The candidate who is lesser known has the most room to grow. Candidates rarely gain new supporters when they're well known and people have made up their mind about them. That's how it works.

Think about the '08 Democratic Presidential Primary. Hillary's poll numbers never went higher than what they were the day she announced her campaign. People knew about her and had already made up their mind. Barack was a newcomer and his standing in the polls grew steadily as people learned about him. This is repeated in race after race.

And I'll point out again that Meek just did 5%-15% better in the primary results than any of the polls predicted.

[brooklynite]

61. Are the polls also lying that Alex Sink is leading in the Gov race?

Or are they only wrong when we don't like the results?

[Radical Activist]

63. I don't put much faith in any state level polls.

They can give you a rough idea, but that's it. Especially this far out from election day.

[brooklynite]

67. I tend to agree...

What I look at are results over time rather than one-off polls. Pollster's aggregate model shows Meek in Third Place since March and continually trending down.

[JCMach1]

79. The reality check is that Crist has never lost a state-wide race and Meek

has NEVER won one.

The big reality check is Rubio... he has to be defeated at any cost.

[quaker bill]

82. Charley's model is broken

Mr. Crist has won many statewide races, but he has always done it with near universal and absolute Republican support. He has usually held his own with the (I) voters and snagged a few (D)s. If he gets to work and works hard this time, he might get up to 20 percent of the (R)s rather than his typical 90+. His polling numbers as Governor were once pretty high, but slumped with the economy, and even more so with his embrace of Obama and the stimulus, because his base was not impressed. In short, the base he has used to amass the record of victories is no longer with him.

He has indeed won a number of statewide races, but he became an (I) because he was about to lose one, quite badly. He thinks he can hold the center of his old coalition together and win in a three way, and he might. However, the notion that one should look at his track record of victories past and make any decision on it, is sadly mistaken. Very few of the conditions that made that track record impressive remain true in this race. The only part that actually remains true is that Charley is still a talented, well spoken politician, with a fair number of big money donors. His base however has been eviscerated by Rubio.

I actually think we have a better chance with Meek, if we saddle up and push turnout among the new 2008 voters. This crowd is large, and they will not be turning out for Charley, they have never voted for Charley because he was not on the ballot in 2008. I think Charley only became Governor because he ran in 2006, before most of these folks were even registered to vote. There were better than 80,000+ new voters in the county where I live and the vast majority of them came out for the first time to vote for Barack Obama. Gore took my county by 2000 votes, Kerry took my county by 2000 votes, Obama took my county by 65,000 votes with a record turnout of new voters. The 63,000 vote difference has no history of backing Charley Crist, ever. This is the button we need to push.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

84. The Most Energized Voters In 2010 Are Republicants

This election has 1994 written all over it. An energized Republicant base, a demoralized Democratic base portends an electoral Armageddon for Democrats. Meek would have a tough climb in a good environment. He has as much chance of beating Rubio as I have of beating Wlad Klitschko.

Most of my Democratic friends, many of whom are African American, will vote for Crist if he is the only viable alternative to Rubio.




And, respectfully, you can bookmark my post.

[quaker bill]

95. They might vote for Crist

but I believe he will lose anyway. Meek is a far better bet.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

87. The Irony

Meek has no chance of catapulting over Crist and beating Rubio. You know who Rubio wants Democrats to vote for? Meek, that's who. Because he knows that's a vote he will never get anyway but it is a vote Crist might have got.


Crist is every Meek voter's second choice. Rubio needs Meek to do well to win. The irony....

[wmbrew0206]

91. Amen!

[quaker bill]

96. Let me posit another theory

Barack Obama took Florida in 2008. He did it by driving turnout among new voters, heavily minority voters, largely in urban areas of the state.

Republicans would like to elect Rubio, the tea party and the BFEE (JEB) back Rubio. They also know after 2008 that anyone as conservative as Rubio is not electable if turnout among this new set of voters is anything like 2008. The Dems put up a younger African American candidate who could drive this turnout.

At some point it becomes clear to all concerned republicans that Charley Crist will lose the primary and Rubio will be the republican candidate. So, the Republican super majority FL legislature comes up with all sorts of far right legislation, a bill to make all abortions illegal, a bill to gut public employee pensions, a bill to shaft the teachers unions, and many more. Some of it then passes so Charley can veto it, take his rich Republican backers and run indy.

With an "indy" in the race, the Dem vote is more likely to be sufficiently split so Rubio can take the 40+/- percent he was destined to get in any case and win a Senate seat with it.

Would republicans do this? Manipulating the ballot is one of their specialties. They picked it up from the Dixiecrats who have been doing this since reconstruction. Why were there 8 mostly liberal tickets on the 2000 Presidential Ballot in FL? Because Republicans manipulated the ballot to make access very easy. They wanted a variety of non-Gore liberal options to dilute the dem vote and made very sure the ballot featured them.

I think we are being played, just like a cheap fiddle. If dems actually believe in themselves, they can win this outright. Florida dems are particularly bad about self confidence and easily played. We have a vast edge in both dollars and voter registrations, but still we are talking conservative lite Charley Crist. This is typical, but truly unfortunate and badly mistaken. The day the (R)s get a vote from power in the Senate, Charley will be there for them, count on this.

[suzie]

100. Democrats in Florida have lacked good candidates for statewide office, not self-confidence.

[quaker bill]

101. Been a Democrat in FL very long?

I have, for 37 years. We have been wimps since the late 60's. The last time we showed any guts at all was Lawton Chiles beating JEB, and he did that pretty much on his own, and we shortly lost the FL Leg. to Feeney and his gang.

There are places not to far from where I sit, where we haven't even elected a City Commissioner since 1976. It is not for a lack of perfectly good candidates, it is that the party has had no competent leadership in so long they would not even know what it was if it walked in the door.

Have you worked for the party? I have and in 2000 they had no clue who their voters were or where they lived, as best as I can tell, in most places they still don't. This is why Obama set up his own organization, worked with the League of Conservation Voters, SEIU, and NAACP, because they could at least get their act together enough to run a reasonable GOTV effort. This is quite hard to do if you don't know who your voters are or where they live.

We act like a party that accepts defeat too well and develops no plan to change this. I have been in the trenches with the FL dems for a very long time. This problem has nothing to do with the quality of the candidates, look at the "rocket scientists" the repugs keep winning with. Have you ever met or worked with any of these folks? I do so regularly and know high school freshmen with much more leadership to offer.

[suzie]

102. You point to Lawton Chiles win to tell me that I'm wrong?

You say it's not about good candidates and to support your contention, name a good candidate who ran his own campaign.

Please name a great, or even good, Democratic candidate for the governor's office between Chiles and Sink. BTW, Sink seems to be a good candidate.

And if you think that Barack Obama did a great job in Florida, and I agree with that, it might have been a good idea to choose a candidate for Senator that had been part of/close to the Obama campaign and could build on that.

[LostInAnomie]

98. I doubt it.

[okieinpain]

99. i believe the polls. n/t.