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What are the chances Dems will lose their Congresssional majorities based on this

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ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-17-10 09:57 PM
Original message
Poll question: What are the chances Dems will lose their Congresssional majorities based on this
the current majority and historical trends:

Senate: Dems 59, losing the majority would require a loss of 10 seats.
House: Dems 255, losing the majority would require a loss of 39 seats.

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McCamy Taylor Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-17-10 10:02 PM
Response to Original message
1. What are the chances Dems will fail to get a super majority if we do not get off our butts?
100%. It takes a supermajority to get anything done in this country.
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napi21 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-17-10 10:10 PM
Response to Reply #1
5. +2 nt
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Skip Intro Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-17-10 10:06 PM
Response to Original message
2. I think we'll lose seats, but keep both houses. I have money on it. nt
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babylonsister Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-17-10 10:08 PM
Response to Reply #2
3. +1
Wow, we agree.
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Skip Intro Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-17-10 10:10 PM
Response to Reply #3
6. Cool. I knew we had something in common...
:D
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babylonsister Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-17-10 10:13 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. Ha! I hope you get rich!
:D
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ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-17-10 10:28 PM
Response to Reply #2
8. Well, there
must be something in the air because that's what I think will be the likely scenario.

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mitchtv Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-17-10 10:38 PM
Response to Reply #2
9. I think so also
just a hunch
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napi21 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-17-10 10:09 PM
Response to Original message
4. t's very difficult to keep track of all the house races for all of us
in different states. It's hard enough for ME to keep track of the one here in Ga. Although Ga. is pretty predictable. The one uy I DIDN't want to win the pub nomination won,and because of where I live there's not even a Dem opposition candidate So give up on Ga. The other States are difficult for me to track because there are so many of them. I try to track Grayson and I think he's doing good, but the rest of them I find myself relying on the media. I kow that's not a great idea, but I just can't go to every State to check on their progress.

I doubt they'll lose the Senate. Angle is such a dimwhit I can't believe she can beat Reid. I don't think Boxer's going to lose either. At the moment I can't think of a ot of the others, but it doesn't look that bad for the Dems imo.
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mitchtv Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-17-10 10:41 PM
Response to Reply #4
11. I live in CA CD45
a possible Dem pickup, fingers crossed, changeing demos
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Dawson Leery Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-17-10 10:38 PM
Response to Original message
10. Depends if Democrats come out to vote
and there is a strong campaign to keep the indie vote split 50/50.

The Rethugs could capture the house, but it would be with only a few seats
, 219-222. That is it. If the Democrats can keep 230 seats, it would be a good night for us.
The Senate should stay in the Democrats hands. 54-58 Seats. Depends on how badly the Teaklan screws up.
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nadinbrzezinski Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-17-10 10:42 PM
Response to Original message
12. At this point 50\50
we will know far more two weeks from actual elections. After all it is still well before MOST voters actually start to pay any attention.
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tritsofme Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-18-10 10:52 AM
Response to Reply #12
15. House elections are so unpredictable, we won't know until polls close on the East Coast
Edited on Wed Aug-18-10 11:02 AM by tritsofme
There are some big bellwether races in in PA and VA especially that should preview how the night will go.

At this point either a small Democratic majority or a small Republican majority seems to be most likely outcome. However I would say there is a greater probability of a modest Republican majority compared to the chances of a modest Democratic majority emerging in the 112th Congress.
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Dawson Leery Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-18-10 12:00 AM
Response to Original message
13. kick
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old mark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-18-10 12:43 AM
Response to Original message
14. After thinking carefully on this, I have to go with 50-50...I believe the voters
at this time are pretty much unpredictable and have been manipulated and massaged so much they have little idea of reality.
I NEVER THOUGHT Reagan would be elected Governor of California,let alone President...who would vote for that clown? Didn't EVERYONE realise what he was and who he really worked for and represented? Didn't we have a huge number of liberal, educated people voting?

Didn't we have 8 years of Reagen as president?

I am really afraid we will see some super drooling-idiot bigots elected and that the remainder of Obama's term will be a total waste of time for any progressive ideas...I am afraid the last 18 months will be the good old days.

But I would be happy to be proven wrong...

mark
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