CONSEQUENCES of pulling out of AFGHANISTAN ???

[Martin Eden]

With all the clamoring to GET OUT OF AFGHANISTAN NOW, there has been very little thoughful discussion about what the consequences would be. Therefore, I'll play Devil's Advocate and ask what I believe are the most relevant questions:

What would be the impact on US national security?
After our departure, would the Taliban likely retake the country?

Would Afghanistan become a base for more major terrorist attacks on our soil?

How would our departure and a Taliban victory affect neighboring Pakistan and their nuclear arsenal?

What would be the impact on the people of Afghanistan?
Would there be a prolonged civil war?

What would happen to the people who've risked their lives working with us?

What would be the fate of Afghan women?

How would a Taliban victory affect US domestic politics?
I've been harshly condemned by bringing this up before, accused of playing partisan politics with people's lives. Nevertheless, it's a question that Democratic leaders contemplating a pullout have to ask themselves because they better have a plan for dealing with the consequences if they don't want the Republicans retaking Congress and the White House.

What would be the consequences to our country of a Republican president with a Republican congress?

Keep that in mind, and picture our television screens full of images of the triumphant Taliban marching through the streets of Kabul celebrating their defeat of the "Great Satan" while burning American flags. Sprinkle in another terroist attack (or even a failed one) and think about how the Rethugs would salivate over the prospect of using this to revive their political fortunes and take our country drastically in the wrong direction. Even though GW Bush caused irrepairable damage to our country and left Obama with a FUBAR in Afghanistan, how many of our fellow citizens would react to our humilation at the hands of the Taliban by embracing the (entirely false) Republican meme that Democrats simply can't be trusted in matters of national security?
........

I'm not necessarily advocating anything here.
I'm looking for serious answers to these questions, because the consequences can be very real.
Even if it still makes the most sense to pull out ASAP, we will be much better prepared to deal with the consequences if we give some serious thought to these questions and come up with some reasonable answers.

I fully understand it is very likely that President Obama's stated goals in Afghanistan cannot be achieved, and that prolonging our stay achieves nothing but pouring more of our blood and treasure down a black hole.

I predict the President will continue to give the strategy in Afghanistan more time to work, but if it shows little signs of working by the end of next spring he's going to have to demonstrate some real leadership in making a very tough decision and a great deal pf political savvy in dealing with the consequences of pulling out.

[hobbit709]

1. Domino Theory Part II

[FiveGoodMen]

3. And how.

I think we should be at war with every country on the planet all the time.

(Just in case)

Or we could cut to the chase and just all commit mass suicide.

[Martin Eden]

31. Not sure what post you read ...

... but the title of your post is unrelated to what I wrote.

[bemildred]

2. There is no reason to think that we can prevent those things anyway.

All we are doing is stalling in the hopes that some miracle will happen. Digging the hole deeper won't make it not a hole anymore.

[Martin Eden]

32. There is always reason to THINK

That's all I'm advocating here.

If the best decision is to pull out ASAP (may very likely be the case) then we need to THINK about the consequences (real or perceived) on all fronts so we are better prepared to deal with them.

[bemildred]

43. Well good, I favor thinking too.

The best decision was to not occupy in the first place, but it's too late to do anything about that. It is, however, still possible to realize that stalling our departure in hopes of some unspecified miracle that will "turn it around" and leave it not looking like the disastrous stupidity which it was and is will just continue to make it look and be worse.

[rfranklin]

4. Didn't the 9/11 guys plan it partially in Germany?

Doesn't that mean we should occupy Germany again. What hogwash!

[nadinbrzezinski]

And San Diego, don't forget the foreign country of... San Diego

[Sebastian Doyle]

7. And Florida, where they supposedly learned to fly

In Jeb Bush's state, at a flight school owned by two CIA operatives & Bush Crime Family friends Wally Hilliard & Rudi Dekkers.

[nadinbrzezinski]

9. Hey, look on the bright side, the 82nd and 101st have only

to take the interstate.

:hi:

[frylock]

12. i keep waiting for the bombs to drop in clairemont mesa

[nadinbrzezinski]

16. Here is the scary part

they should be falling very near Mesa College. One of these guys had an apartment two doors down from my BIL... about oh a mile from Mesa.

Hey the Guard's armory is right there. Does that mean we have invaded ourselves already?

[nosmokes]

21. to be fair, they do eat a lot of fish tacos in San Diego. That's pretty

furrin...

[nadinbrzezinski]

23. Well senor, we also eat Thai and Indian food

we like them furiegner dishes senor.

And I cannot make this thing spell check the Spanish...

[nosmokes]

24. Is Zia's Afghan cafe still around?

It was on 30th just north of University a block or two. Really tasty food and Zia was a great guy. There were some pics on the wall of him back in his in his mujahadin days fighting the Soviets. If it's still around I highly recommend a visit w/ the caveat it's been years since I've been there.

[nadinbrzezinski]

27. Don't know,

we used to do Thai during my course on Imperialism. But if he is still around, might be a place to go.

Thanks.

[PacerLJ35]

48. They did plan much of it in Germany, but the Germans weren't protecting them either

They were financed and sourced from the original al Qaeda group in Afghanistan.

[Enrique]

5. keep the war going until there's a republican president

so the republicans will be blamed for the consequences of withdrawal? :crazy:

[Martin Eden]

29. Bad idea, I want neither

I just want to make sure that (among orther things) a Republican president is not among the consequences of withdrawal.

Understand?

[mmonk]

6. It's been 40 years since the US and Pakistan started stirring

up conflict in Afghanistan. So your guess is as good as mine.

[nadinbrzezinski]

8. Yes some of that will happen

see what happened after WE FORGOT about it after the Ruskies left...

Yes, to civil war

Yes to the Taliban retaking the country (Shh don't tell anybody, but there are talks with them right now... )

Yes to some stirring shit regionally.

But to the planning of 9.11, since it happened in Germany and the US, should we occupy both Germany and the US?

[SoCalDem]

10. What would happen?

A few things:

women would continue to be 93rd class citizens
children would still be slave-labor for their parents
female children would still be bartered away as "brides"
radical Islam would still be the "law of the land"
the country's infrastructure would continue to be shit
poppy would still be the coin of the realm
the Taliban would bully their way to power again, and stay there
Karzi would run yelping like a scalded dog, to another country, to live with the money he's sent ahead

In other words, Afghanistan would continue to be Afghanistan..a place we all would love to see joining modernity, but "they" don't want it enough to fight for it, so they will stay "behind".

Our nasty habit of proxy wars has to stop sometime, and maybe this is just such a time.

There is a lot of injustice in the world, and as much as we abhor it, should we impoverish ourselves & kill innocents (as well as our own soldiers) attempting to force change on people who don't want it?

History shows us that when we DO leave an area, things often improve.. We mauled Viet Nam & its people, and 45 years later, they are now trading partners, and the people don;t even seem to hold many grudges.

The same goes for many of reagan's favorite Central American targets..They are now pretty much bustling centers of commerce, and favorite choices for retiring Americans.

In every "war", there comes a time to just STOP...

[FiveGoodMen]

14. You forgot Saudi Arabia

;)

And any number of other places that treat their citizens like shit.

We're not currently at war with all of them. Why is Afghanistan so special?

(I'm not arguing against your point at all, just expanding)

[SoCalDem]

17. yep.. and Myanmar(Burma) & even China

:)

[kenny blankenship]

11. AFGHANS may kill AFGHANS?1??

Our country would never willingly be a party to that, directly or indirectly. It would be a stain on our sacred honor.

Of course you aren't advocating anything. We all understand that.

[Tierra_y_Libertad]

13. Acknowleding a lost war, rather than continuing it, takes real strength.

Something that is obviously lacking in our "leaders". Hell, I'd settle for him to pull out and blame it on the villainous, traitorous, left, as long as the deed was.
done.

Another consequence is the treasury would increase enough to (potentially) deal with real problems.

[Martin Eden]

30. I agree with the title of your post

I disagree with blaming it on the left, because we'd end up further to the right.

[DailyGrind51]

15. We would have all that extra money that could go for social programs!

[KharmaTrain]

18. It's Global Checkers...

You ask some very important and valid question...unfortunately our power elite...not just the President but the legislative along with the media aren't willing to. There's more riding on this than "security"...war is big money and prestige. Remember, any withdrawl of American forces means either the withdrawl of the nearly 150,000 mercenaries in that region or leaving them on their own. Millions are spent each year by the corporate welfare defense contracts to keep their war time gravy train rolling along with the many jobs that go along with them...and that's what gets the attention of the legislators far more than the cost in lives. People were shaking their heads with yesterday's vote why so many Democrats voted in favor...I'd suggest looking at their districts and see how much money is being funneled by these wars for profit.

Next is the geo-political game. The US like the believe it's the lone superpower...that it can affect events anywhere in the world. It's the trapping of empire that has gotten us into this mess and makes it hard to get out. The perception is any withdrawl is a defeat...based on a political scorecard that ignores history and local culture. It's all about perception...American "exceptionalism" that our politicians subscribe to an jades their view of the outside world.

As is said, it's easy to get into a war and hard to get out...and that's especially the case here since the definition of "victory" is in such essoteric and abstract terms. It's an attempt to guarantee "safety" in a world where there are no such guarantees and as long as our politicians think we're not "safe", the troops will remain.

The ultimate exit strategy will be economic...either when the cost of keeping troops in these countries supercede the amount the contractors are making or it breaks the treasury so bad that we can no longer afford to play world's policeman.

Cheers...

[Martin Eden]

38. Thanks for your astute observations.

The influence of the MIC that Eisenhour warned us about 50 years ago is very much a big part of the problem. Ideally the disasters perpetrated by Cheney/Bush would lead to some REAL CHANGE in that area, but so far I don't see that happening.

Our foreign/military policies since the end of the cold war have not made us winners in the geopolitical game. We need to wise up to evolving realities and find ways to enhance our position based on mutual interests rather than superpower military force/intimidation. We will certainly lose face with our "retreat" from Afghanistan, but our stated objectives are likely unachievable and eventually we will have to pull out under less than favorable circumstances.

As for keeping us "safe" from foreign terrorists, the deployment of our military into Muslim lands IMO only increases the number willing to blow themselves up with as many Americans as they can take with them. Unfortunately, too many of our fellow citizens still equate the projection of military force with keeping us "safe" at home. Every time there is even a failed terrorist attack the warhawks & fearmongers extoll the necessity of militarism. These same assholes deride the the most effective counter-terror measures (intelligence, law enforcement, international cooperation).

I think that characterizing our worldwide military reach and our role as "the world's policeman" is intended to paint a benelovent veneer over the "racket" that General Smedley Butler described.

Once again, thank you for your thoughtful, intelligent, and civil response.

[MineralMan]

19. I'm afraid that most of those things will happen no matter when

or how we leave. President Obama thinks it's worth a try. I think he is wrong. We'll be leaving before too long, as it becomes even more obvious that our efforts are not going to stabilize anything.

[Martin Eden]

34. And WHEN they happen we need to be prepared ...

... for dealing with the international consequences and with how our political opponents at home will try to exploit the situation.

As some have suggested, the international consequences could be more positive than negative ... if that's the case we need to be prepared for how best to take advantage of any developments.

[MineralMan]

49. I'll tell you something that I've realized. The whole situation is

way too complicated for me to fully understand. It involves way more than just our involvement in Afghanistan. There are strategic and global political issues. There may well be issues that none of us know about.

President Obama seems to think that the current strategy can work. I doubt it, but he's the guy in charge, so I'll just have to wait and see. I believe the entire Iraq/Afghanistan thing was a horrible mistake in the first place. It's completely FUBAR at this point, and I have no idea what the best all-around move is at this time. A mess.

[sabrina 1]

20. This is what I think ...

What would be the impact on US national security?

It would improve. Most of the hatred for the U.S. is because of the number of people we are killing and our unfair handling of the Israel/Palestine issue. If that last issue were resolved fairly, that would instantly make the U.S. safer.


What would be the impact on the people of Afghanistan?
Would there be a prolonged civil war?

Most likely yes, except we would no longer be arming both sides. Afghans have said that they want to resolve their own problems. The presence of an occupying force has only worsened the situation.

What would be the fate of Afghan women?

They have spoken for themselves. The very brave women of Afghanistan have been ignored by the U.S. They have said over and over again, that the presence of the NATO forces have placed them in more danger, as they are now caught between three, rather than two warring forces and NATO's presence has not improved their condition. They have asked that either they work with Democratic voices in Afghanistan rather than the brutal War Lords (whose record of rape and abuse of women is dismal).

How would a Taliban victory affect US domestic politics?

Hopefully it would make the American people far less willing to support these ill-conceived, costly and dangerous foreign adventures in the future.

I can supply links for information on the real results of our presence there for women and ordinary Afghan civilians.

Edited to add. I do not think we will be leaving as none of the above were ever the reasons we are there. We have established bases in the counries north of Afghanistan to protect our interest in getting to the Caspian sea oil reserves.

[Martin Eden]

25. Thanks ... you're one of the few who gave thoughtful answers

But I still think we've got to be prepared for how the Rethugs will exploit a "US defeat" after Obama decides to "cut and run" from Afghanistan. If this leads to a resurrection of Republican political fortunes I wouldn't be too hopeful about the situation in this country.

And don't hold your breath about a fair resolution of the Israeli/Palestinian conflict. The 2-state solution is impossible for the forseeable future.

[sabrina 1]

28. You're welcome, you make good points also.

I think that if we leave Afghanistan it would have to be done immediately after an election. The public has short memories and if they have a whole year and a half after the event, it will not be an issue in the next election. Even if things degenerate in Afghanistan. Sadly the American people really don't care about other countries unless they have to.

It could then be used as an issue by Dems 'we ended the war etc. we have saved the American people x number of dollars which can now be used to rebuild this country rather than the Republican idea of rebuilding other countries' or variations of that theme. Which I think would be very popular at this time.

As for the Israeli/Palestinian situation, you are correct I know. However, a strong leader in this country can start using the power we have to make the necessary threats (no more funding, no more weapons etc.) until we start seeing progress. So far, other than Carter and Clinton, nothing is being done to demonstrate to the world that the U.S. is in control of this situation.

The American people in general don't care much about these issues, they care about this country. It would be a very popular move to start laying down the law in that situation. As it is we are viewed as weak and unable to deal with it, and if that is the case, we should withdraw and leave it to the rest of the world. Being seen as biased in this ongoing conflict is definitely not in our best interests.

[earth mom]

22. First you gotta stop believing in the terror meme and the big bad boogeyman

the powers that be have been pushing for years.

Secondly, why is it up to the U.S. to police the world?

Especially when this country is so fucked up it ain't funny?

Got health care?

Got a job?

Got a home?

Why the hell are people here in the richest country in the world living in 3rd world conditions?

That's what we should ALL worry about first and foremost.

[Martin Eden]

26. Never did, never will

I'm just asking questions here that are relevant to the reality and/or public perception of our involvement in Afghanistan.

Your answers (more questions) do not address the points I raised.

[USArmyParatrooper]

37. "the richest country in the world living in 3rd world conditions"

Earth mom, I agree with our sentiment that we can't police the world, but if you we're living a 3rd world life style you need to travel abroad.

I've spent time in a number of places in Mexico, Jamaica and Iraq. I've been through the poorest of areas in the US and they can't hold a candle to the poverty in the three places I mentioned. And frankly I'm not sure even they can be considered third world. I never appreciated being born in the US more than when I got to see some alternatives.

[earth mom]

57. So it's ok with you when only "some" of the people in this country are living in their cars

or in tent cities?

Again, this is supposedly one of the richest countries in the world.

Why the hell is ANYONE in this country living outside without a solid roof overhead?!

You can sit there all day and say it's not as "bad" as some other country, but the point is that NO ONE in this country should be living outside like a dog because they can't afford a roof overhead!



But you know that already.

[ZombieHorde]

33. My guesses...

What would be the impact on US national security?
After our departure, would the Taliban likely retake the country?

President Obama plans on having the Taliban run the country even if we "win." The Taliban will be in charge whether we stay or leave, unless something unexpected happens.

Would Afghanistan become a base for more major terrorist attacks on our soil?

Maybe, but I doubt there would be any additional plans. Plans will be made, the country those plans are made in is mostly irrelevant.

How would our departure and a Taliban victory affect neighboring Pakistan and their nuclear arsenal?

I don't know.

What would be the impact on the people of Afghanistan?
Would there be a prolonged civil war?

Most likely.

What would happen to the people who've risked their lives working with us?

Probably depends on the person.

What would be the fate of Afghan women?

Stonings, acid in the face, and other horrors. Similar stuff as what is currently happening.

How would a Taliban victory affect US domestic politics?

The US would probably declare victory. President Obama would probably make a bad ass speech which would hopefully hypnotize most Americans into believing we had won the war.

[Martin Eden]

39. I mostly agree, except your last answer

You were of course being sarcastic, but the fallout from a Taliban victory is potentially a HUGE POLITICAL WINDFALL for the Republicans.

My main point is that we need to know what to expect and have a plan for countering their bullshit and turning it to our advantage.

[branders seine]

35. the only effects would be

1. $33 Billion more to spend on real problems

2. FAR fewer Afghan civilians being murdered by American soldiers

3. Fewer American soldiers being murdered by Afghan freedom fighters

4. More PTSD issues in the US

5. Fewer gold toilets in the executive suites of war profiteers

6. Fewer US arms in the hands of drug-dealing warlords

[Martin Eden]

40. I hope you're right

But while we hope for the best it also makes sense to plan for the worst.

And believe me, the Rethuglicans will do their best to put the worst possible spin on this.

[killbotfactory]

44. The money spent in Afghanistan would not be spent on real problems

The reason we don't have enough money being spent in the US fixing social problems is because it's a matter of principle for the republicans and conservative democrats. It would just be 30 billion less added to the debt, while they continue to push for cuts on every social program across the board.

[sendero]

36. I'm so tired of this idiocy..

... the answer is yes, yes and yes whether we pull out tomorrow or in 10 years.

[Martin Eden]

42. Then stop being an idiot.

The only thing I'm advocating here is to consider all the potential consequences and have a plan for dealing with them.

In other words, invest in some serious thought. The up-front effort is a lot less costly than getting blind-sided by developments we should have seen coming.

[sendero]

46. We cannot fix the world..

.. nor is it our responsibility to do so.

We are only there at all for some as yet unidentified business interest.

We will fail just as everyone else has, just as we did in Vietnam.

But along the way we will waste billions of dollars and thousands of lives.

[Kip Humphrey]

41. I'd guess heroin prices would increase & the Taliban will return its focus to fighting India.

[NJmaverick]

45. These are all excellent questions and thinking about and answering them

demonstrates the moral abuguity that this conflict creates.

[L0oniX]

47. If only there were as much concern about our country.

What would be the impact on US national security? I'm more fear full of the asscarrot driving next to me.

After our departure, would the Taliban likely retake the country? Who really believe we own it now?

Would Afghanistan become a base for more major terrorist attacks on our soil? Whack a mole is fun game. Lots of countries to have a base in.

How would our departure and a Taliban victory affect neighboring Pakistan and their nuclear arsenal? Why should we give a damn? They have their hands full with India anyway.

What would be the impact on the people of Afghanistan? What's the impact on our constitution and our people?

Would there be a prolonged civil war? It's none of our business. Keep spending on the military and we could have a civil war here too.

What would happen to the people who've risked their lives working with us? Enough fools have died already ...and many innocent women and children.

What would be the fate of Afghan women? I see enough homeless women here as it is now.

How would a Taliban victory affect US domestic politics? They had nothing to do with us bailing out the banksters.

What would be the consequences to our country of a Republican president with a Republican congress? Well the world has to come to an end eventually anyway.

Enough of the imperialism and exceptionallism. Take care of our own for a change. Stop policing the world. Mind our own business. Stop the damned domestic spying and torture. Restore the balance of power. Lay off some of those 800,000+ asscarrots with top security clearance. Give Wiki leaks founder the Nobel Piece Prize. Prosecute Bush and his war criminals. Stay tuned for more adventures of Nick Danger 3rd Eye.

[SoxFan]

50. Thank you for a refreshingly thoughtful post

It's good to hear from someone who has actually thought this through. The dime store Chomskys on DU have a more tenuous grasp of foreign policy realities than my buddy's rat terrier.

[TheKentuckian]

51. Our overall national security will improve

Simply from not being anchored in a wasted effort. Beyond being able to more wisely allocate these blown resources more wisely almost however they are spent, including debt service.

We will certainly benefit in general deterrence capability by not being mired in an unwinnable farce. Our ability to. To actually have potential to project an effective force anywhere makes a potential threat think twice.
Dead certainty of how stretched we are potentially means some that may not have been going for blood will take a chance when they smell it in the water. It leads to other powers maneuvering in ways that reduce strategic advantages.

We also stop over extending our troops allowing them to be more effective and less stressed and allows us to stop maintaining and resources to corporate mercenary armies who undermine our security and rule of law far beyond the scope of the rag tag terrorist and US created insurgents (aka people who had no beef till we occupied their country) on principle alone and in real life terms as well with their criminal behavior, dumping money by the ton to people determined to undermine our republic for profit and power, and were growing a heap of power tripping fucknuts who will eventually rotate back here and become abusive cops or work in the private sector as modern day Pinkerton's for nefarious purposes.


Will the Taliban retake the country? Such as they did before or if not them some similar group.

I don't get the relevance of the where aspect of planning an attack or training for one. It can just as easily happen in whole or in part anywhere in the world that isn't locked down and probably in those places too, if need be.

The impact on Pakistan's nuclear weapons is negligible and I'd say obviously beyond our reach in any event. We also are probably more safe by not having our troops attacked by Pakistani funded bands, funded on a pass through basis by us. That's a sure loser and there is almost no way to swim upstream against that kind of flow.

Of course there will be civil war to some degree, just as there is right now and has been for longer than we've been around. However, we can at least reduce the funding for it and certainly get out of the middle of it, reduce the quality of the weapons available, and cease stirring it up.

Some of the people we worked with will prosper well beyond previous hope others will die in horrible midevil fashion in retaliation for some pretty heinous acts themselves.

The women will live like shit on a shoe as they have for centuries, some willingly others desperately struggling and yearning for self determination and a chance for something like a real life.

I see why you'd be hammered for the focus on political blow back, it is deserved to a large extent.
I know that doesn't sound very kind but I get the impression it is the dominant concern and if that is the case it is a rather dangerous and untrustworthy priority system.

The defense is frankness about the situation and if you need a maneuver then you can tie the Republicans in knots by dropping the hammer on their war criminals and corporate scum while quickly firing up big construction projects to show that you're putting people to work and have brought home the bacon.

There is no magic shield to stave off the Republican shit throwing. It's what they do and there will be some howling and crap corporate press. The reality is deal with it like women and men who really are country and people first or cower in the corner like craven pieces of runny pigshit until the Republicans take power and are forced to shut it down themselves and we can tell protest stories to our kids and grandchildren in the comfort of our tent cities and indigents farms and swallow the shame of our cowardice when we held the strings and our regret at the costs of our calculation.

Also, I fail to see why the blowback will cause us to lose power or any guarantee that if we pour our young people's blood and many year's worth of treasure into a quagmire that we will retain it.

The pursuit of the permanent majority is some serious folly and ducking shadows in a vain effort to hold on to it can lead to worse errors than even the worst intentions will fall well short off in damage to our nation and values.

The "shrewd" calculation will undo us quicker than getting slapped down for serving the best interest of our people.

[mmonk]

52. People should ask what led to the terrorist attacks

of 9/11 and other terrorist attacks as well. The CIA term for it is called blowback.

[TheKentuckian]

53. Yep, sometimes when you poke hornet's nests they come out and sting ya.

[Martin Eden]

55. Pretty Good Answers

You are absolutely correct that serving the best interests of the American people should always be the first objective and should also benefit the Party that renders that service.

The last 8 years (including the last 18 months with the teabagger hysteria) have seriously eroded any confidence I might have had that the majority of the American people can recognize what is in their best interests and reward that service at the polls.

My bottom line concern is what's best for this country, and to tell you the truth the idea of the current breed of Republicans in control of our government scares the shit out of me. Many of the Democrats disgust me, but the Rethugs are by comparison batshit crazy dangerous.

And let me make one thing perfectly clear:

I am NOT advocating staying in Afghanistan to improve the electoral prospects of Democratic politicians.

I am saying there are some very real and/or perceived consequences that need to be considered and that after pulling out Obama and the Democrats will be treading some very dangerous political waters; they better be prepared to meet the Rethugs head-on. Shrewd calculations are sometimes necessary to serve the public interest, like it or not.

I posted this thread because there seemed to be a near-total absence of any meaningful discussion about the consequences of pulling out -- to the point of willfull blindness. I succeeded in sparking at least a few thoughtful replies, which was my prime objective in playing Devils Advocate.

[Stinky The Clown]

54. I'll try to answer each of your questins thoughfully

With all the clamoring to GET OUT OF AFGHANISTAN NOW, there has been very little thoughful discussion about what the consequences would be. Therefore, I'll play Devil's Advocate and ask what I believe are the most relevant questions:

What would be the impact on US national security?
>>>>>I believe our risk would diminish as we left an occupied country
After our departure, would the Taliban likely retake the country?
>>>>>They already have retaken all but KarzaiKabul

>>>>>Surely you don't thing that Afghanistan is the only place in the world where they can set up military jungle gyms to be sued for photo ops? The fact is, they can train anywhere they want, including right here with our own religiocrazy militias.

How would our departure and a Taliban victory affect neighboring Pakistan and their nuclear arsenal?
>>>>>Pakistan won't be sharing their nukes with the Talban under any circumstances. The worst that happens is they annex the country and control it.

What would be the impact on the people of Afghanistan?
>>>>>The same as if we had never invaded and occupied.
Would there be a prolonged civil war?
>>>>>Why? Between who? Mayor Karzai and his police force against the Taliban? And if civil war did ensue, is that our fault or theirs? Where would the country be if we never fucked with it?

What would happen to the people who've risked their lives working with us?
>>>>>They could be evacuated with our forces.

What would be the fate of Afghan women?
>>>>>What would it have been if we never invaded? We didn't cause the culture to be what it is.

How would a Taliban victory affect US domestic politics?
>>>>>Right wing authoritarians would whine. Humanitarians would be able to fund the social safety net right here in River City.
I've been harshly condemned by bringing this up before, accused of playing partisan politics with people's lives. Nevertheless, it's a question that Democratic leaders contemplating a pullout have to ask themselves because they better have a plan for dealing with the consequences if they don't want the Republicans retaking Congress and the White House.
>>>>>Did it ever occur to you that maybe the MAJORITY OF THE FUCKING COUNTRY WANTS OUR ASSES OUT OF THERE LAST WEEK? We stay because of a loudmouth minority who control the media and own our government.

What would be the consequences to our country of a Republican president with a Republican congress?
>>>>>Unrelated to Afghanistan. A question put in your list to scare people. I ain't bitin'.

Keep that in mind, and picture our television screens full of images of the triumphant Taliban marching through the streets of Kabul celebrating their defeat of the "Great Satan" while burning American flags. Sprinkle in another terroist attack (or even a failed one) and think about how the Rethugs would salivate over the prospect of using this to revive their political fortunes and take our country drastically in the wrong direction. Even though GW Bush caused irrepairable damage to our country and left Obama with a FUBAR in Afghanistan, how many of our fellow citizens would react to our humilation at the hands of the Taliban by embracing the (entirely false) Republican meme that Democrats simply can't be trusted in matters of national security?

>>>>>Did it ever occur to you the scene you try so hard to paint with loaded words might actually come off quite the opposite of your doomsday scenario. People might finally say he earned the Nobel they gave him.
........

I'm not necessarily advocating anything here.
>>>>>I think you are, but I'll let you have this point for the sake of a civil discussion.
I'm looking for serious answers to these questions, because the consequences can be very real.
Even if it still makes the most sense to pull out ASAP, we will be much better prepared to deal with the >>>>>I gave you the most serious answers I can muster apropos a political chat room.

I fully understand it is very likely that President Obama's stated goals in Afghanistan cannot be achieved, and that prolonging our stay achieves nothing but pouring more of our blood and treasure down a black hole.

I predict the President will continue to give the strategy in Afghanistan more time to work, but if it shows little signs of working by the end of next spring he's going to have to demonstrate some real leadership in making a very tough decision and a great deal pf political savvy in dealing with the consequences of pulling out.
>>>>>I think the president, like ever "war" president since HST, keeps his hand in his crotch and enjoys the feeling. I know. Ugly. But you asked




edited to add ">>>>>" in front of each of my answes

[Martin Eden]

56. Thanks for the answers

"Did it ever occur to you that maybe the MAJORITY OF THE FUCKING COUNTRY WANTS OUR ASSES OUT OF THERE LAST WEEK?"

I hope you're right. Are there any fairly reliable polls indicating that?