Is Obama's Re-Election a Sure Bet? Professor's Formula Says Yes.

[Hissyspit]

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20010385-503544.html

Is Obama's Re-Election a Sure Bet?
Posted by Stephanie Condon

Americans are increasingly unsure of President Obama's handling of the economy, a new CBS News poll released this morning shows -- but come 2012, unless there's another economic meltdown, that lack of confidence in the president will have zero impact on how people vote, one professor contends.

Mr. Obama's re-election is virtually guaranteed, according to a formula concocted by American University Professor Allan Lichtman. Little beyond a massive scandal directly tied to the president or a major military or foreign policy failure could change that, according to Lichtman's system, which he calls the "13 Keys."

"Nothing that a candidate has said or done during a campaign, when the public discounts everything as political, has changed his prospects at the polls," Lichtman says. "Debates, advertising, television appearances, news coverage and campaign strategies -- the usual grist for the punditry mills--count for virtually nothing on Election Day."

The "13 Keys" are 13 factors that will impact the outcome of the popular vote, according to Lichtman. If at least eight of those factors are "true" (such as Key No. 2, which states, "There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination"), the "Keys" predict the incumbent will win. Nine of the "Keys" are currently true for Mr. Obama.

Lichtman's system predicted George W. Bush's 2004 re-election as early as April 2003, Al Gore's popular vote victory in 2000, Bill Clinton's win in 1996, George Bush's defeat in 1992, and the outcome of the 1988 presidential election.

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[Birthmark]

1. The New Coke had a formula, too.

How'd that work out?

[JuniperLea]

2. Let's play really bad analogy!

Or, how about, exceedingly horrid straw man!

:eyes:

[Birthmark]

3. I'll take bad analogy...

...over believing a "formula" who's best asset is it gives a reassuring result.

[JuniperLea]

6. That's telling of your thought process more than the formula's process...

Since the formula is a proven winner. Science uses formulas all the time... what? Are they a bunch of dummies too?

[Birthmark]

7. A proven winner?

That's a *claim*. Neither of us have any idea if that claim is true. Not everything you read on the internet is true. There really isn't $10 million bucks just waiting for you to transfer it from some Third-World country. :)

Scientific formulae aren't purported to work. They are tested rigorously by people other than the one inventing the formula, so the two situations aren't even close to the same.

[JuniperLea]

9. Clearly you didn't bother to read the data...

Excuse me for bothering you.

[Birthmark]

10. What data is that?

[Winterblues]

4. IMO there is no Republican that can hold a candle to him in any area.

As for Congress now that's a different matter. I doubt Democrats will lose either the House or the Senate but their majority will probably get whittled down a bit..

[backscatter712]

5. We'll definitely retain control of the Senate.

The House is harder to predict - it'll be close, though I think we've got about 60% odds of keeping it.

[notesdev]

8. My chicken entrails formula predicted the past 423 elections

Is this professor being paid with my money for this masturbation? He can't even get true/false assessments on his own criteria correct, even with most of it being so subjective that one could weasel an interpretation either way in most of the races.

This "professor" is just as much of a fraud as any street corner psychic or witch doctor.

How much actual education was passed on so that this phony could be funded for this nonsense?

[Birthmark]

11. +1, well 0.8 +/-0.25

[Hissyspit]

12. Hey, it worked for the octopus!

[mdmc]

13. I think Obama will win again

[MadHound]

14. Two years out is far too long for anybody to make a reliable prediction.

Hell, back in '91 everybody thought GWB was a lock for another term, what with coming off the first Iraq war and such. A year later Clinton swept to power and Bush went back home.

This sort of thing is just more tea leaf reading, and about as reliable. I can easily foresee Obama losing dramatically come '12, especially if the Catfood Commission comes back with some serious cuts that get voted into law.