Obama a one-term president? Highly unlikely at this point

[cali]

8:31 am July 13, 2010, by Jay

I get a kick out of all these pronouncements that Barack Obama is doomed to be a one-term president. In fact, I’d put his odds of re-election at this point at roughly 2-1 in favor, for several reasons.

One is history.

In the second year of his presidency, Obama’s job approval rating is hovering in the high 40s. The most recent Rasmussen numbers have him at 49 percent approval, 50 percent disapproval. Gallup’s numbers are 47/46. Given the troubled economy, those are actually very strong numbers. For example, compare them to Ronald Reagan’s numbers in 1982, which was the Gipper’s second year in the White House at a time of significant if less traumatic economic turmoil.

As Gallup notes:

“The public’s view of the economy remained sour, and the president’s ratings during 1982 stayed concomitantly low, in the 40% range, ending the year at 41%. The 1982 midterm elections were not good ones for Reagan and for the GOP. The Republicans lost about 25 seats in the House.”

Obama’s numbers are considerably stronger than those of Reagan at a comparable time in his presidency. In fact, by the beginning of 1983, Reagan’s job-approval numbers fell to 35 percent, yet as we all know he went on to defeat Walter Mondale in a landslide in 1984, pulling 59 percent of the vote compared to Mondale’s 41 percent.

<snip>

http://blogs.ajc.com/jay-bookman-blog/2010/07/13/obama-a-one-term-president-highly-unlikely-at-this-point/

[Catshrink]

1. Did Ray-gun go out of his way to throw his supporters under the bus?

[cali]

3. not everyone has the same perspective as you do

and I'd bet anything that there were repukes who felt Reagan did just that.

[dionysus]

6. that's an opinion, not a fact.

[cbdo2007]

11. It's not like they'll jump ship and vote for Newt/Palin 2012. Obama is safe.

[Bragi]

2. You may want to update your analysis a bit

Check out the latest confidence data here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x4462800

[MadBadger]

4. His approval is 50% in that poll

[Bragi]

10. Quite so

Nevermind.

[cali]

5. uh, it's not my analysis. I thought that was obvious.

In any case the author isn't talking about a snapshot of polling but looking at cumulative polling.

[Bitwit1234]

7. No matter what people THINK IF

he lets social security be messed up he and the rest of congress will change hands..wanta bet...

[cali]

8. if ifs and ands were pots and pans......

[Oregone]

9. I think he is fairly safe

He is a better campaigner than president IMO, and as a president, he seems to have a high enough approval

[msongs]

15. lol the American Idol candidate on the campaign trail nt

[Name removed]

12. Deleted message

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[Ganja Ninja]

13. Probably the biggest factor in whether or not Obama gets re-elected is

who runs against him.

Anyone care to name a republican that can beat him?

[zipplewrath]

14. Actually 2 factors

The economy is #1. If unemployment rises in 2012 to above 10%, he could be in trouble.
But yes, #2 is who runs against him. Romney could have a real chance in that case. I wouldn't be surprised to see Crist make a run at it if this November works out for him.

[FBI_Un_Sub]

16. Between the Cat Food Commission and the Tea Bagges

There is absolutely no way in Hades that I will vote for a GOPer in 2012. No freakin' way.

[ProgressiveProfessor]

17. I beleive he will run at this point. The question is he going to have a credible challeger

from within the party.