Krugman has called it a Depression. How long do you think it will last?

[Stinky The Clown]

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x8649142

Some of the heartier smoke blowers and sunshine purveyors like to cite some rule or another that shows that we're *technically* not in a Depression. That, of course, is quickly belied by the impoverished state of our local and state governments, and the continuing efforts to cut back entitlements (but NEVER those fucking wars) at the federal level as but a few examples.

How long do you think it will be before things start to actually feel better for most of us? How long do you think until all the effects of this episode are behind us?

[Fumesucker]

1. I'm starting to think that Depression is the new normal..

This has been the aim of the neocons and neolibs for a long time, we are close to the desired end state of the extremely wealthy.

Honestly, I don't really see how it's ever going to turn around, peak oil is going to drive the economy for the foreseeable future. The infrastructure requirements to get beyond peak oil are staggering and we really don't have the wherewithal as a society to do what needs to be done.

A common occurrence in ancient societies was "eating the seed corn" in years of famine, those societies that did that paid a horrendous price..

We didn't even eat our seed corn, we burned it to kill people on the other side of the world who had never done anything to us.

[Javaman]

2. Exactly.

calling it a depression means, there is a chance for recovery.

Like you said, this is the new normal.

I honestly can't for see how we are going to recover.

Plus, the bigger question that needs to be asked, "what are we to recover to?".

If recovery means going back to the way things were, that's not so much a recovery as it is lying to ourselves while the house falls down around us.

We are exiting the oil age, it's really that simple.

The sum accumulation of humanities science, philosophy and sociology was nothing more than wanton self indulgence.

Humanity blew an enormous opportunity and as a result we are now paying for it.

Junkies will do the strangest crap for a fix.

[OHdem10]

6. I also agree. No one has been willing to say this outloud in MSM

but our country is in final throes of harmonizing downward
caused by Globalization. The equalization of standards of
living around the world. Our country had standards too
high to compete with other countries. Therefore, other
countries cannot afford to buy our goods.

To put it bluntly, they screwed up the trade policies.
Instead of bringing other countries living standards
up to compete with ours--ours is being taken down to
compete with theirs. Elites get higher profits this way.

The new normal will be close to a banana republic.

As an aside, the Republicans are so didingenuous, claiming
they can cut taxes on business and create all these jobs.
The fact is the Businesses have cut workers because
they know the real conditions. Cutting taxes have reached
a point of diminishing returns for jobs. Cutting Taxes
will be the Republicans cutting any social program thay
can so the "Haves" do not have to put out so much money
for the "Have Nots".

Both Parties look a little "not so honest" as long as
they do not admit what has happened and continue to
use Trade to senf jobs overseas.

Recovery means millions without jobs. We will have
a country with Mega-Rich at the top and masses of
poor--a diminishing middle class falls into poverty.

[Javaman]

27. "Mega-Rich at the top and masses of poor--a diminishing middle class falls into poverty."

Historically, that is the recipe for something else.

[PJPhreak]

39. "Junkies will do the strangest crap for a fix."

Truer words have rarely been spoken,especally Oil Junkies.

[ixion]

4. I agree...

Their goal is a something like Neo-Feudal Age.

[mochajava666]

25. Very well said

[Radical Activist]

35. It was probably by design.

The corporate powers that put Bush in office saw that he was going to replaced by someone who wasn't one of their own. It was their last chance to permanently lower the standard of living and expectations of the American public.

[area51]

37. +1

As another poster said, it would've helped to start a transition to single-payer health care. This would both create more medical jobs, but make it more economical for companies to hire workers. Insanely having workers depend on companies for access to medical care is going to ensure that companies will be reluctant to hire.

[Robert DAH Bruce]

3. Until the proper authorities tell us!

As per usual.

[Odin2005]

5. Never, unless Corporatism is destroyed.

Corporatism is the cause of the crisis, to fix the crisis you must end Corporatism.

[Fumesucker]

10. Given that a monstrous percentage of our politicians are corporatists..

I would say that the odds of corporatism being destroyed are about the same as for a snake making proper use of a pogo stick.

[depakid]

7. The problem in a picture:

We can't pretend to solve problems by building half a bridge.

-and in terms of economics- you can't bridge the output gap and put people back to work with half measures and discredited Republican policies.

[burnsei sensei]

8. More than a decade.

Perhaps two.
There is so much we are doing that is so damaging-- and so much that has to be re-structured.
No movement in policy-making, no meaningful reforms, though perhaps a few have been contemplated.
Single payer would have been excellent. It would have re-structured health care delivery.
The re-regulation and segregation of types of banking and investment would have been good too.
But our "leadership" is too cowardly to implement anything meaningful.
Above all, the wars must end and the economy must be re-structured such that people can be employed easily.

[AngryAmish]

9. 3-4 years

We are desperately trying to keep housing prices up. It won't work. Until real estate gets to market clearing level (and Freddie and Fannie closed) then we won't see an uptick.

[Angry Dragon]

11. After we get done paying for the mess in the Gulf

having new millions of people out of work in the Gulf, the economy in the Gulf destroyed,
land values destroyed in the Gulf, increased health issues in the Gulf, toxic land in the Gulf,
I would say this country will be the land of the serfs and we will not recover.

[Dover]

12. Considering that the dollar is not going to remain the global standard exchange currency

for much longer, our enormous debt, and that we are in a general change from industrial to ....information?...era, meaning many industry jobs will never come back leaving many unprepared and untrained to change their means of making a living, and our overextended conflicts overseas, our extensive need for infrastructure and institutional improvements, widespread corruption, etc. etc. etc....I think there will be a very long period of readjustment.
Rome and other empires never rose again to their former position in the world. Maybe it's a natural law. And that outcome assumes that things continue in a general linear trajectory, which seems unlikely. So many wild cards. Between global warming and potential for wars over diminishing resources...well........ sigh.


It seems to me that it's very very important for each of us to take responsibility for moving our lives into a new place. That means, at least energetically, re-enforcing and supporting changes and co-creating with vision and commitment so that we can end up in a better place. Given a whole new set of blocks, what will we build?

[Johonny]

13. as long as we try to fight two wars and keep ultra low taxes on the rich

while exporting our middle class jobs.

[Subdivisions]

14. Krugman is an idiot. I'm a guy sitting in my home

in my boxers and I (with the help of many others more knowledgeable than Krugman) knew that we were in a depression months and months ago.

Krugman had his chance to be relevant and he blew it. Now he's just a johnny-come-lately to at least one Joe Sixpack sitting in his home office scratching his nuts and tracking sugar donut dust all over the place.

[Dover]

17. Yes, the msm has certainly embraced the psychology of 'word crafting'

better known as propaganda to recreate 'reality' or a new normal for the anxious masses. Always playing to the lowest common denominator.

[Subdivisions]

19. And Krugman sold out to it. He doesn't deserve the Nobel Prize he

won. Funny he sold out right about the same time he got is Nobel Prize - which he doesn't deserve considering he failed to call the depression before I did.

[Javaman]

28. You are exactly right...

anyone paying attention 5 years go saw the writing on the wall.

Calling it a depression now is nothing more than predicting the yankees will will the 2000 world series today.

Sometimes I wonder what is in it for Krugman to make that statement now. To the rest of us, it's obvious, to those in the beltway who aren't of the working class, this may come across as either a revelation or heresy.

The total disconnection between those of us who live this reality everyday and those whose only interest is how it effects their stocks, widens daily.

[Subdivisions]

31. I'm pissed at Krugman. He used to be right there with us. I used to

hang on his words. Then, it was like a switch was flipped. The switch, as it turns out, was Krugman himself.

He sold his soul. Now he has to live with it.

[robdogbucky]

30. Right you are, Subdivisions

Robert Reich called it a depression in April, 2009:

It's a Depression
April 3, 2009, 9:51AM

"The March employment numbers, out this morning, are bleak: 8.5 percent of Americans officially unemployed, 663,000 more jobs lost. But if you include people who are out of work and have given up trying to find a job, the real unemployment rate is 9 percent. And if you include people working part time who'd rather be working full time, it's now up to 15.6 percent. One in every six workers in America is now either unemployed or underemployed.

Every lost job has a multiplier effect throughout the economy. For every person who no longer has a job and can't find another, or is trying to enter the job market and can't find one, there are at least three job holders who become more anxious that they may lose their job. Almost every American right now is within two degrees of separation of someone who is out of work. This broader anxiety expresses itself as less willingness to spend money on anything other than necessities. And this reluctance to spend further contracts the economy, leading to more job losses. Capital markets may or may not unfreeze under the combined heat of the Treasury and the Fed, but what happens to Wall Street is becoming less and less relevant to Main Street. Anxious Americans will not borrow even if credit is available to them. And ever fewer Americans are good credit risks anyway.

All this means that the real economy will need a larger stimulus than the $787 billion already enacted. To be sure, only a small fraction of the $787 billion has been turned into new jobs so far. The money is still moving out the door. But today's bleak jobs report shows that the economy is so far below its productive capacity that much more money will be needed. This is still not the Great Depression of the 1930s, but it is a Depression. And the only way out is government spending on a very large scale. We should stop worrying about Wall Street. Worry about American workers. Use money to build up Main Street, and the future capacities of our workforce.

Energy independence and a non-carbon economy should be the equivalent of a war mobilization. Hire Americans to weatherize and insulate homes across the land. Don't encourage General Motors or any other auto company to shrink. Use the auto makers' spare capacity to make busses, new wind turbines, and electric cars (why let the Chinese best us on this?). Enlarge public transit systems.
Meanwhile, extend our educational infrastructure. So many young people are out of work that they should be using this time to improve their skills and capacities. Expand community colleges. Enlarge Pell Grants. Extend job-training opportunities to the unemployed, so they can learn new skills while they're collecting unemployment benefits.

Finally, accelerate universal health care."

http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/blogs/robert_reich/2009/04/its-a-depression.php


Well, Robert Reich, we blew it on the health care too.


Just my dos centavos


robdogbucky

[lunatica]

15. 1 million people are now tossed under the bus in unemployment

And who knows how many are daily losing their way of making a living in the Gulf. Both groups have nothing waiting in the future unless something drastic is done except abject poverty and unemployment for the rest of their lives. I'd say it will last a very long time. This Depression is just getting started.

On top of that they're cutting education and police services. We're going to pay big time.

[ananda]

16. As long as people remain opiated, quiet, and docile.

nt

[Doctor_J]

18. Forever. This is the new steady state

It's not a "depression", it's the completion of our transformation into feudalism. The wars are permanent, so is the 15% unemployment, unafforable health "insurance", right-wing media control, and elimination of the Bill Of Rights (except for 2A).

[Subdivisions]

20. Yep. And we as 'Americans' are actually a collection of cowards. n/t

[Doctor_J]

22. Amazing, isn't it?

Not a single Hate Radio host, Cable "News" propagandist, SCOTUS justice, GOP senator, or even one lousy teabagger has paid for his/her treason. We are Good Germans.

[lonestarnot]

21. Not in our lifetime Stinky.

[HCE SuiGeneris]

23. Moved, wrong spot.

[HCE SuiGeneris]

24. Sea-change soon.

Or, there is no end in sight.

[DeschutesRiver]

26. A couple of decades.

I am in my early fifties, and I don't see anything resembling what we used to call normal returning until I am in my 70s at the earliest.

Things of this magnitude simply don't get fixed overnight. There is no magic wand.

[spanone]

29. does one man's perception make is so?

[Subdivisions]

32. Not when that one man is late to the table. Turns out, his imput is not only

not needed, it's neither relevant or timely.

[Dappleganger]

33. Not until real jobs come back to America.

Will it be over, so it may be a looooooong time.

[Greyhound]

34. Every step this administration has taken has made it worse and ensured that

it will last longer. I don't think there will ever be a recovery, recovery being defined as improving conditions for the "useless eaters".
:kick: & R

[amborin]

36. starting w/ the $7.3 trillion bankster bailout, it went downhill from

there; and Obama worked hard while still a candidate to ensure TARP passed on the 2nd round

[Swamp Rat]

38. Until it is time for Carousel