(oh the irony) ¿Will Arizona need a BAILOUT because of the immigration law? --economy is tanking

[underpants]

June 15, 2010 |
With only six weeks until Arizona’s immigration enforcement law goes into effect, area housing analysts are already expecting the worst. According to the Arizona Republic, housing experts anticipate that SB 1070 will not only drive illegal immigrants out of the state, but legal residents and potential new homebuyers with them—“departures from a state where growth is the economic foundation.” The resulting exodus will likely spur more foreclosures and create more vacant homes and apartments, which as real-estate analysts point out, will scare off potential homebuyers who fear lower home values. With a budget deficit of $4.5 billion and an economy struggling to get back on its feet, a declining housing market is the last thing Arizonans need.


Likewise, many of Arizona’s documented residents are also expected to leave the state thanks to SB 1070. According to the U.S. Census, Latinos make up roughly one-third of all Arizonans (29.7%)—many of whom feel targeted by the new law. According to Jay Butler, director of realty studies at Arizona State University:

The immigration law creates a difficult situation for both legal and illegal residents. Some illegal residents may have planned on leaving the Valley anyway because they can’t find jobs. But I have talked to young Hispanics who are residents and so are their parents and grandparents. And those Hispanics plan on moving to other states because they don’t want to be perceived as second-class citizens.

Unfortunately, a declining housing market is just one of the many negative fiscal impacts of SB 1070. While the cost of implementation alone could reach the hundreds of millions of dollars, the legal fees resulting from lawsuits could also soar into the millions—not to mention the economic boycotts and loss in economic activity (to the tune of $26.4 billion) if all undocumented immigrants were removed from the state.

“The immigration law just piles onto our problems,” said Brett Barry, a Phoenix real-estate agent with HomeSmart. “We are already struggling to find the jobs and keep the schools open to entice new residents.”


http://www.alternet.org/rights/147211/another_unintended_consequence_of_az_immigration_law%3A_more_foreclosures_and_vacant_homes_

Arizona Immigration Law Could Increase Foreclosures

http://motherjones.com/mojo/2010/06/arizona-immigration-law-could-increase-foreclosures

Immigration Law Could Hit Housing Market Hard
Even more vacant homes could fill neighborhoods
http://www.myfoxphoenix.com/dpp/news/housing_market/immigration-law-housing-market-6-14-2010

[Demeter]

1. Couldn't Happen to a More Deserving State

[geek tragedy]

2. Not one dime of federal money. Not one dime. nt

[harkadog]

15. Your state is in much worse shape than Arizona will ever be.

You beg for federal money like no other.

[marmar]

25. Oh really

[harkadog]

43. I know you know the reason for the false map. Try again.

For those who don't know the trickery behind it, the states in purple have either large amounts (in proportion to the state) of federal land or federal facilities which receive federal dollars. The people in the states are not receiving the money. Guarantee the poster knows this but thinks he/she can trick the unknowing.

[The Magistrate]

45. Of Course You Feel Bad About Leeching Off Democrats In the North And East, Sir

But honestly confronting the problem is the first step to a cure....

[HuckleB]

29. Try again.

Wow!

:wow:

[geek tragedy]

32. My state pumps more money into red state welfare queens

via the federal government than you can count.

[harkadog]

44. So federal national parks and forest land and other federal facilities

are welfare queens now? Thank you Ronnie.

[The Magistrate]

24. As You Doubtless Know, Sir, New York Subsidizes Arizona Already

Arizona receives about five quarters in Federal funds for every dollar of Federal taxes paid; New York receives about three quarters in Federal funds for every dollar of Federal taxes paid.

This is, of course, the usual story; the 'red states' that vote Republican are massively subsidized by the 'blue states' which vote Democratic. No one, but no one, sucks on the government teat half so long and eagerly as the typical Republican rural small town conservative voter....

[geek tragedy]

33. Well, then, not one more additional dime. nt

[harkadog]

49. Your usual BS once again

The money is not going to residents. It is going to federal military bases and personnel, federal forest land, federal national parks and various federal facilities. Why don't you step up and take some of the burden? Oh that's right because there is nothing that anyone wants to see in New York.

[The Magistrate]

50. Are You That Ignorant Of the Ways Of Money, Sir?

The Federal funds are mostly spent locally, and in many instances maintain things which give rise to a good deal of economic activity, such as tourism. The fact is that the more productive parts of the country subsidize the least productive, and this divide cuts pretty close to the divide between states which vote consistently Democratic and states which vote consistently Republican. For that matter, it is also true that states which vote consistently Republican tend to have higher rates of divorce and violent crime, and generally score higher on most indices of social breakdown, than do states which vote consistently Democratic. The simple fact of the matter is, Republicans leech off Democrats; Republican states leech off Democratic states; far from being exemplars of rugged individualism and go it alone types, Republicans are the most energetic of sucklers on the Federal teat, and far more likely to be violent moral reprobates.

[EFerrari]

3. No one could have ever imagined that targeting 1/3 of your residents

for gratuitous police contact would result in an economic downturn. :eyes:

[underpants]

5. That's like a whole step further in thinking

no time for that when there is political pandering to do

:eyes: indeed

[Hawkeye-X]

4. Until Brewer and Pearce are ousted, indicted, sentenced to forever in prison, and tarred & feathered

living in Tent City, I see no reason for any federal dollars to come in to Arizona, except for minimal support.

The only thing I can think of that can use the federal dollars are the Indian reservations in Arizona. I'd support helping Tohono O'odham upgrade their facilities and modernized.

[Catshrink]

7. Please include Sheriff Joe this.

[The Magistrate]

27. Pearce, Sir, is An Actual Neo-Nazi

There are too many photographs of him at their picnics....

[pinboy3niner]

36. + 100

He's closely connected to FAIR and IRLI, racist front groups already on the watch list of the Southern Poverty Law Center.

FAIR's President is Dan Stein, for anyone who saw Rachel Maddow take him down on her show over his neo-Nazi ties and funding. Rachel later fact-checked his denials and flat-out called him a liar on-air.

[Oceansaway]

6. K&R...n/t

[Catshrink]

8. Not to mention the legal fees the state will incur.

The unelected accidental governor refuses to allow the elected AG, Terry Goddard, represent Arizona in the lawsuits that have already been filed against the state. He has expressed his disapproval of the law but says it's his job to represent the state and would do so.

Goddard is a Democrat, probably the Democratic nominee, running against her for governor.

[lbrtbell]

17. That's Obama's fault

He knew damned good and well that the only thing stopping the AZ House/Senate from doing batshit insane things was Janet Napolitano's veto pen. Sure, her term was going to end in a couple of years, but he should have offered her another position later, so she could've stayed on as governor as long as possible.

[Catshrink]

20. Agreed.

[jillan]

46. When Obama came to Mesa there were as many signs cursing him for taking Janet as there

were anti-Obama and Pro-Obama signs.

Janet kept Arizona sane.

[alstephenson]

9. The economy here has been "tanking" for some time now.

SB 1070 put the nail in Arizona's coffin. Besides the examples cited in the OP, there are many families of MIXED immigration status that are leaving the state. Some are leaving for other states, many are going back to their country of origin. I know of a mixed status family - mother and father are undocumented, children 9 and 14 years of age are U.S. citizens. They went back to Mexico because they were afraid the family might be separated if one of the parents were picked up by Sheriff Joe. The 14-year old daughter, a sophomore in high school and a very good student, was uprooted from the only home she's ever known. She doesn't even speak Spanish. I wonder if she'll be able to finish her education. I wonder if they'll be O.K.

[underpants]

Thanks for the insight

Arizona has always seemed a bit (to me) like an over irrigated creation in and of itself...but that is just me

It's like New Mexico with connections

[lbrtbell]

19. AZ used to be a great place

The only thing over-irrigated were the golf courses. The rest of us had desert lawns (i.e., rocks/gravel) and xeriscaping.

Another thing the Californians did that was batshit crazy was turning their air conditioners down to 65 degrees, then whining about their $500-$600 electric bills. If you want to live in a refrigerator, go to the South Pole. Otherwise, quit being sissies and turn the A/C up to 80 degrees like the rest of us did. When it's 115 outside, 80 is cold enough.

[lbrtbell]

18. I'm white, but my family left, too

Between mortgage companies scamming people, and idiotic Californians going to Arizona and paying top dollar for homes, the housing bubble was bound to burst at some point. If the Californians had just behaved like normal people, instead of showing off with their "We're loaded, so we can outbid any of you local yokels" game, housing prices wouldn't have reached such insane heights. There was even a term for such people: Californicators. The realtors and sellers were dancing for joy over this insanity.

But the rest of us knew what was going to happen. It happened, our economy tanked before the nation's overall economy did, and people like us fled to find housing and work elsewhere.

[CLANG]

10. I hope their entertainment suffers too.

http://www.thesoundstrike.net/

[The Magistrate]

11. the Whole Point Of The Law, Sir, is To Drive Hispanic Citizens From the State

[Name removed]

14. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[TlalocW]

12. It's going to get worse

The economy of Arizona was already tanking, which was reducing illegal immigration into the state to begin with. Now, however, illegal immigration is going to drop further, and while you can argue about whether it's ethical, there is a financial benefit to both the economy and taxes paid. Illegal immigrants always put more into the system than what they can get out of it.

Legal Hispanic citizens are already moving away, and that exodus will increase once legal citizens keep getting harassed by the police, and they'll take their spending power and tax dollars with them as well.

Phoenix, by itself, is already facing a loss of 100 million dollars thanks to canceled conventions/boycotts.

The crime rate is going to go up as well, and with the police having to devote more time to the law, prevention and investigation will start taking more of a back seat and will be difficult as legal Hispanic citizens won't want to talk to the cops as witnesses.

Either taxes will have to be raised (not likely) or funding will be cut, including funding to law enforcement agencies, which will stretch them even further.

And if this law has its TRUE intended purpose of keeping Hispanics from voting (and electing democrats) then republicans will stay in power and undoubtedly offer up their normal ill-conceived economic policies that will put the state further in the hole.

TlalocW

[lbrtbell]

22. How could that be the "true" intent of the law?

Illegal immigrants can't vote, anyway, unless they perpetrate voting fraud.

People are just fed up (no pun intended) because the feds won't do anything to help the state's illegal immigration problem. Janet Napolitano was begging the Bush administration for help, but none was forthcoming.

Having lived there when the earthquake drove hordes of Californians into Arizona in the 1990's, I can tell you this from personal experience: When the huge influx of Hispanics floods into California, another wave of rich, Republican Californians will flow into Arizona again. That's why Arizona lawmakers don't care about the canceled conventions and Hispanics leaving the state. They know that, once again, Californians will soon begin moving en masse to Arizona, which will make up for it.

I'll always remember a guy I met in a health food store in Arizona, who perfectly summed up the mentality of Republican Californians. He had just moved to the Phoenix area, and asked if there were any Vietnamese restaurants nearby. As I had just moved to that part of the state, I told him I didn't know, and we got talking about our impressions of Phoenix. At one point, he said that he liked Vietnamese food, but couldn't stand "those goddamned Vietnamese people." He had moved to Arizona to get away from them.

Those are the people who will move to Arizona. Rich retirees will also continue to move there. People sick and tired of shoveling snow will keep doing the same. Lawmakers know this. So who do you think they're going to cater to--rich newcomers and winter visitors, or poor people who can't contribute as much to the economy?

To quote the classic Mel Brooks line: "F*** the poor!"

[pinboy3niner]

34. Read Greg Palast

As others have pointed out in this thread, anti-immigrant laws purportedly targeted at "illegals" also drive out Hispanics who are U.S. citizens and legal residents, either because they don't want to live where they are treated as second-class citizens, or because they are part of mixed-status families.

As for the state's economy, the OP shows some of the reasons why Arizona is likely to suffer a significant net loss, not a benefit.

Palast's views on Democratic voter suppression are instructive (worth reading the whole article):

Behind the Arizona Immigration Law:
GOP Game to Swipe the November Election

Monday, April 26, 2010
by Greg Palast for Truthout.org

<Phoenix, AZ.> Don't be fooled. The way the media plays the story, it was a wave of racist, anti-immigrant hysteria that moved Arizona Republicans to pass a sick little law, signed last week, requiring every person in the state to carry papers proving they are US citizens.

I don't buy it. Anti-Hispanic hysteria has always been as much a part of Arizona as the Saguaro cactus and excessive air-conditioning.

What's new here is not the politicians' fear of a xenophobic "Teabag" uprising.
<snip>

What moved GOP Governor Jan Brewer to sign the Soviet-style show-me-your-papers law is the exploding number of legal Hispanics, US citizens all, who are daring to vote -- and daring to vote Democratic by more than two-to-one. Unless this demographic locomotive is halted, Arizona Republicans know their party will soon be electoral toast. Or, if you like, tortillas.
<snip>

But that's the point, isn't it? Not to stop non-citizens from entering Arizona -- after all, who else would care for the country club lawn? -- but to harass folks of the wrong color: Democratic blue.


http://www.gregpalast.com/behind-the-arizona-immigration-lawgop-game-to-swipe-the-november-election

[TlalocW]

39. They don't want legal Hispanics voting

Brewer already has a history of conducting purges and witch hunts of legal Hispanic voters before she became governor. The white supremacists in your state were worried about Hispanics breaking 3 to 1 for democrats and decided to do something about it.

TlalocW

[harkadog]

13. I live in Arizona and there is no evidence the economy is tanking

The economy is much worse in California. They (and New York) will be begging for a bailout long before Arizona will.

[depakid]

21. The economy going poorly- and state is unsustainable & will be one of the hardest hit

by the realities of petroleum depletion. So in the longer term, people leaving the state and monies flowing elsewhere is a blessing.

[harkadog]

23. What?

What "petroleum depletion"? Sounds like stuff I heard in the 70s.

[depakid]

26. The 70's folks got the concepts right- except that their timing was off

And the thinking now among many is still the thinking then- if not more so- cheap oil will last forever- as it "always has" and if not, we'll find or make due with another substance that has the same or even better energy density, transportability and energy returned on energy invested!

Won't be a pretty sight and we'll see it play out in earnest this very decade. Should be interesting times.

[jillan]

47. Not much signs of it where I am either. Businesses keep popping up in Chandler.

BUT my house has dropped 100K in the last couple years and I am worried it will continue to drop.

[lbrtbell]

16. AZ's economy started tanking years ago

Latinos were being victimized by sleazy mortgage companies that tried to get these people to refinance at interest rates too good to be true. Then the companies went under, were taken over by companies that charged higher, more realistic interest rates that the people couldn't afford.

How do I know? I worked at one of these companies, and was appalled at how the mailing lists were almost exclusively Hispanic surnames.

Then Jan Brewer became governor (thanks, Obama, for taking Janet Napolitano away from AZ). She made huge cuts in AHCCCS, the state's Medicaid system, which impacted the poor (mostly Hispanics).

So all this hysteria about the immigration law rings hollow to me. Where the hell were the protesters and the boycotters when the Hispanics were being screwed over, becoming innocent victims of foreclosure, and being denied health care? Those things were literally killing people, yet nobody gave a damn until the media turned this immigration law into "Issue Of The Month".

If people really cared about the welfare of the Hispanic community, they would have been getting gravely concerned long before the immigration law was passed.

They would also be concerned about how many Hispanics are going to California, a state that can't afford medical care for its current poverty-stricken residents, let alone the new ones.

It annoys me when the media and the public ignores these life-threatening problems, yet scream bloody murder over "show me your papers". This so-called concern for the Hispanic community seems pretty superficial, when people only care about it while it's trending on Twitter. :(

[unblock]

28. nothing ironic about it. a simple and obvious consequence

immigration builds economies up.
anti-immigration laws help tear economies down.
incredibly stupid and overreaching police state racist laws passed in the name of anti-immigration just tear the economy down faster.

the law was not passed to make the economy better. the ostensible goal was to keep whatever jobs there were available for citizens and documented immigrants. the price was always going to be depriving the state economy of the economic activity of illegal immigrants, at a minimum.

[The Magistrate]

30. Good Points, Sir

[xchrom]

31. recommend

[chillspike]

35. HA HA!

Hilarious! K&R~~~~!!!!!!

[Zorra]

37. The regressive Arizona state legislature is probably the worst in the US.

State finances are horribly mismanaged.

[Catshrink]

38. The GOP Leg. took the Grover Norquist pledge.

[Zorra]

40. Yeah, seems like they are drowning themselves in the bathtub. nt

[Catshrink]

41. Yep. Holding their own heads under water.

The overwhelming YES vote on Prop. 100 (to raise sales taxes by 1¢ to support education) shocked many of the neoLibertarians.

The problem is that most of these clowns run unopposed or their opponent is just as bad.

[Greyhound]

42. Arizona needs a bailout because of an unnaturally high concentration of stupid.

These drooling migrants visit in December and decide to move there for the weather, then they are too dim to get out of the sun during the six months of hell and it bakes their little 'brains'.

[jillan]

48. PLEASE support the Az Democrats that are running in November.

Terry Goddard for Governor.

Rodney Glassman for McCain's Senate seat.