Kelliher and Dayton have statistically significant leads in new poll

[anthroguy101]

I am glad we have another bright spot for this November. I love you, Minnesota, and I'm glad you people are smart enough not to fall for this teabag nonsense:

The Pioneer Press has fantastic news in a new poll released this morning: Not only have DFLers taken the lead in a new poll, but theirs are the first statistically significant leads since polling began in the gubernatorial race. The only candidate who does not have a statistically significant lead — although he’s right on the edge — is Matt Entenza. Kelliher and Dayton, on the other hand, are blowing Emmer out of the water.

Decision Resources Ltd., of Minneapolis, conducted the survey of 800 Minnesota adults May 28-June 2. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Among the three main DFL gubernatorial candidates, former U.S. Sen. Mark Dayton has the biggest lead over Emmer, 40 percent to 28 percent.

House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher, the DFL-endorsed candidate, led the GOP candidate, 38 percent to 28 percent.

Former House DFL Minority Leader Matt Entenza also topped Emmer, 34 percent to 27 percent.



This is huge news, and it shows that the DFL candidates are in an excellent position for this race. Minnesotans are tired of Tim Pawlenty’s failed policies, and they’re skeptical about electing an extremist like Tom Emmer who would double down on them.

Of course, as always, I think this poll has its share of problems. Where previous polls understated DFL support, this one likely overstates it (more on the issues with this poll below the break). However, the DFLers’ lead is large enough that I think it’s real, albeit significantly smaller than 10 - 12 points.

So far as I can tell, it looks like the poll canvassed all Minnesotans, rather than likely voters, and it has a partisan breakdown of “39 percent Democratic, 32 percent Republican, 2 percent Independence Party and 24 percent independents.” I’m skeptical that we’ll see quite so favorable a mix for the DFL in November, although we do typically have more DFLers than Republicans. Similarly, the approval ratings in the poll, while somewhere in the vicinity of reality, seem skewed. The poll has Pawlenty at a 37 percent approval rating, while President Obama was at 58 percent. Both of these numbers indicate to me that this poll is skewing to the left.

For a more detailed analysis of the issues, feel free to check out every conservative blog in the state. I agree with Dave Mindeman at mnpACT!: You’ll soon hear the right-wing sound machine hollering about this poll. I’m expecting something along the lines of Of course it’s biased — it’s in the Pi Press, or The Liberal Media is trying to win this one for Kelliher, which is one of their favorites. They’ll happily accept the polls that are biased to the right without an iota of critical thought, but with the release of this poll you can expect them all to become experts on the intricacies of polling.