BP-Here's the really scary part

[kpete]

Here's the really scary part

"My source inside BP also tells me that there is considerable likelihood that the gas explosion that led to the sinking of the Transocean's Deepwater Horizon drilling rig probably, like air in water pipes, probably shocked and damaged the well casing. In addition, as oil combined with mud rushes through the casing, with pockets of gas sending additional shocks to the casing system, it is likely that further erosion of the casing's structural integrity will occur. This could lead to a total breakdown of the connection of the casing to the BOP at the top, which would lead to an increase in oil flow from the 80-100,000 barrels per day most scientists estimate to 600,000 barrels a day. If the last ditch effort using the pair of deep alternate wells fails to stop the gusher, it is HIGHLY likely that this breakdown of the casing will eventually happen. That's why it's so important to drill additional wells to take pressure off the system, though even that idea is highly speculative. ..."

lots more:
http://www.opednews.com/articles/BP-and-Haliburton-s-Role-i-by-Rob-Kall-100615-705.html
via:
http://prairieweather.typepad.com/big_blue_stem/2010/06/heres-the-really-scary-part.html

[Bragi]

1. What do theoildrum.com people say about this?

I ask because www.theoildrum.com seems to be a credible source, and I don't know this other one.

[northernlights]

6. generally the same thing

from the oil drum was posted here yesterday. That posting had links to various sources -- testimony, documents, images -- that suggest the well and BOP are losing integrity, along with the sea floor in the area. Although it didn't suggest specifics as to how many barrels/day would then gush out...it was pretty damn scary, though.

[Bragi]

19. Yikes!

I'll go back and have a read. Thanks.

[Kablooie]

21. Several weeks ago they talked about the high pressure eroding the structure.

They said it was inevitable if the flow continued.

[JuniperLea]

2. I wonder if anyone has applied the statistics...

How much oil is there in this vast pool, escaping at what rate, to last how long if gone unchecked? If they knew how to stop it, it would be stopped. I think it's going to empty itself.

[dipsydoodle]

4. Don't think it will literally empty itself

but the pressure would reduce with time I'd guess. The purpose of the relief well is to interept the existing one at a much lower depth leaving the pipe above that redundant.

btw - I've read that the field is 90% gas.

[JuniperLea]

15. I read that the gas pressure is what's keeping it flowing...

90% gas... hey, like DU! :P

[dipsydoodle]

20. Indeed

:rofl:

[lob1]

9. I read somewhere, probably here on DU,

that this could spill for 7 years if not stopped.

[polichick]

3. Both Senator Bill Nelson and Mike Papantonio have spoken on msnbc...

...about scientists warning that this is what's happening.

[DURHAM D]

5. I don't have any problem with this except that increase to 600,000 a day.

I don't buy the figure.

As for the question someone asked about theoildrum. More than one post has appeared there supporting this theory. It is just a theory - or as my brother said when I suggested this damaged casing scenario to him just a couple of days after the blowout - "That will kill the planet".

[northernlights]

7. a theory with significant supporting evidence

in the Oil Drum. Video of leaks from the sea bed surrounding the BOP, testimony, documents, details around the failure of the top kill effort, why Dr. Chu ordered top kill shut down...

[Statistical]

8. This sentences discredits the entire claim.

"That's why it's so important to drill additional wells to take pressure off the system, though even that idea is highly speculative. ..."

:rofl:

Relief wells don't "take pressure off the system". You can't drain pressure for a oil formation, you can simply remove oil (lots and lots and lots of oil) and overtime pressure declines. It take years and dozens of wells to reduce the pressure in a oil pocket by any meaningful amount. Sometimes it takes decades before the pressure in the well is no longer sufficient to draw oil to the surface. 30 years after drilling most wells in Kuwait still flow to the surface without any need for pumps. They do now use pumps downstream in pipe network to get it to flow to the sea terminal but the oil will still gush to surface without need for pumps.

So anyone drilling wells to "relive pressure" in an oil formation will be as effective as someone trying to drain the Pacific with a pail to avoid water from rising.

The purpose of relief well is to intersect with main well, inject mud to stop flow, inject concrete, and the inject more mud to hold it in place. A mud - concrete - mud sandwich. Nothing more complicated than that. It works very similar to the "top kill" except it is killing the well about 3 miles down. After that anything above the kill point becomes irrelevant. Like having a busted nozzle on a garden hose. Rather than worrry about the nozzle you just kink the hose downstream.

It has nothing to do with "relieving pressure". So when the author make a claim like that it kinda ruins credibility of the entire argument.

[damntexdem]

10. Nonsense. The "pressure off the system" obviously refers to the casing and structures above ...

where the relief well will come in. If it takes on the oil flow from below, this will reduce the pressure on the defective BP system above.

[Statistical]

13. Well you don't need multiple wells to do that.

Just one. Backup well is a contingency in case there is a problem or delay.

1 well, 2 wells, or 1000 wells won't "relieve" any more "pressure".

So at best it is poorly written at worst the person is under the delusion that relief wells relieve pressure and allow main well to be capped.

Most people would simply say stop the flow if they understand what the relief well does.


Honey the sprinkler is broken can you "take pressure" off the system at the upstream juncture?
What?
You know turn the faucet off.

[northernlights]

11. the relief wells will re-direct the pressure

away from the damaged well casing and BOP above, won't they?

[Statistical]

14. No they won't redirect it.

They will seal the main well below the junction.

" That's why it's so important to drill additional wells to take pressure off the system, though even that idea is highly speculative. "

Most people would say. That is why it is important to finish the relief well to seal the flow.

Who uses the term "take pressure off" when they mean cut the flow completely?



Honey the sprinkler is broken can you "take pressure" off the system at the upstream juncture?
What?
You know turn the faucet off.

:rofl:

[northernlights]

16. taking a single phrase out of context

and the little rolling laughy thingy don't impress me. Nor does your concern about the quality of the writing by a non-professional writer. I suggest you look again at the 1st sentence from that paragraph.

"If the last ditch effort using the pair of deep alternate wells fails to stop the gusher , it is HIGHLY likely that this breakdown of the casing will eventually happen . That's why it's so important to drill additional wells to take pressure off the system, though even that idea is highly speculative. ..."


The writer does not state that the *intention* of drilling alternate wells is to relieve pressure.

The writer clearly states the the intention of the alternate wells is to stop the gusher.



In other words, if the well isn't capped, the ongoing pressure (and erosion) on the damaged well casing and BOP will ultimately cause them to fail, opening the well to unchecked flow. Therefore, it is important to drill the additional wells to prevent collapse of the damaged well casing and BOP.

[Hosnon]

17. I think the author is referring to the "sandblasting" effect we've heard so much about.

The "system" is the pipe itself, including the section that to some degree supports the BOP. Once the well is plugged via the relief wells, the sandblaster will, in effect, be turned off.

[DURHAM D]

18. Just google "diagram of a relief well".

The first diagram shows how the new well runs adjacent to the original well hole and then it is perforated every 50 feet - allowing for the mud and cement to be injected.

I am not sure that this is the exact plan for the current well in question but in this case a picture is worth a million words.

[flyarm]

12. Our Local SW Fla news was warning of this in the very early days after the explosion!