Friday's U.S. jobs report caught most economic analysts by surprise. After touting the strength of the recovery for months, they had to come to grips with the fact that the economy just is not creating very many jobs...
The (housing/real estate) bubbles directly generated close to $500 billion in annual demand by stimulating construction....The $1 trillion plus in lost demand is the cause of the downturn, and there is no obvious basis for replacing it. The stimulus package pushed a bit more than $300 billion a year into the economy, but close to half of this was offset by cutbacks and tax increases at the state and local level. The negative impact of the state and local actions will intensify after July 1 when most new fiscal years begin...
There will be additional downward pressure on consumption coming from further drops in house prices... The crisis in Europe is another drag on the economy. As countries across Europe are forced to adopt contractionary fiscal policies, growth in the region will weaken as will imports from the United States...
Unfortunately, the deficit cultists are making it likely that the country will follow the path of high unemployment...No, today's unemployed are out of work because the people who are managing the economy don't have the skills necessary to do their job. And the incompetents who are managing the economy are all getting very well paid for their work. That is not good economic policy.
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