Watch the BP ROV Under Sea Cams! Thread #21!

[gateley]

Thread # 20: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=8484005&mesg_id=8484005



~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

HALT! GO NO FARTHER! DO NOT PROCEED if you have not viewed this video. It is an excellent explanation of the process,
the stage it's in now, and answers many questions.

>>> Latest Kent Wells explanation of Top Hat and Oil Extraction (June 3 posting): http://bp.concerts.com/gom/lmrp6_060310.htm

OTHER INFO LINKS:

The latest TheOilDrum thread: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6558

Great forum with lots of pics and video if you need to catch up: (although the DUUSBPROVC is giving them a run for the money!)
http://www.doomers.us/forum2/index.php/topic,68178.4545

Subsea Response Links (great to view when there's downtime): https://docs.google.com/Doc?docid=0AYETicASkH8SZGZmN3ptcXpfN2M2cmR3c2M5&hl=en

LIVE CAM LINKS:

Multi-view ROV page: http://bp.isevil.org

Great site w/multi-screens: http://blog.alexanderhiggins.com/bp-live-oil-spill-cam.html

All cams (BP site): http://www.bp.com/genericarticle.do?categoryId=9033572&contentId=7062605

WKRG Video Stream:http://www.livestream.com/wkrg_oil_spill

Akamai Link: http://mfile.akamai.com/97892/live/reflector:46245.asx

Fox Feed: http://interactive.foxnews.com/livestream/live.html?cha ...

CNN Feed: http://www.cnn.com/video/flashLive/live.html?stream=str

ABC Feed: http://abcnews.go.com/video/video?id=6105570


A couple of helpful graphics to explain what you're looking at, oil plume permitting:






And, finally, proof that
DU is on this project:



THANK YOU TO EVERYBODY FOR YOUR HELP AND CONTRIBUTIONS OF PICS AND LINKS! :yourock:

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[lamp_shade]

1. present

[flamingdem]

2. GO DU UNDERSEA ROV C-L-U-B!

Most surprising oil spill story: James Cameron offered BP the use of his private fleet of submarines.

Maybe we should invite him to the club.

[flamingdem]

3. Check the BP Cam, looks worse nt

[flamingdem]

4. Tell me how much worse that looks, I know I am not imagining this

Anyone watching?

[Feron]

5. It looks the same to me.

The oil is coming out from under the hat and curling up so that may make it look worse than it really is.

It doesn't look like they've made much siphoning progress since this morning unfortunately.

[gateley]

6. I heard they're getting maybe 10%. If they're telling us that, let's assume 1%.

As meager as it is, I'm grateful for every drop that doesn't escape into the water.

[flamingdem]

7. OK. I hope you're right. It looks worse to me nt

[gateley]

8. I checked a couple of different angles -- it's tough to tell. I hope you're wrong -

I can understand minimal diminishment, but can't think of any reason MORE might be a part of this process at this time. :(

[flamingdem]

9. Exactly my concern, we don't want to see more flow now

What happened to the twice daily updates from BP?

I'm sure they have an explanation. B-)

[Feron]

14. Heh I can only imagine...

It's not oil...it's drilling mud!



Anyway here's a grab of the dispersant ops. That seems to be the only action going on today.

[gateley]

24. Shhh... don't give them any ideas! I wouldn't put it past them! nt

[gateley]

15. Just heard a guy on CNN give a good explanation -- we don't want too much

pressure at this time (he gave a reason why which I don't recall) but according to him, it's looking okay at the moment. He was a CNN guy, not a BP guy.

Who usually gives the updates? I went looking for the morning press conference but got waylaid looking at other stuff.

Just also heard Obama speak to the press. He sounds disgusted and pissed at BP and didn't mince too many words. I'm glad he sees what slimes they are.

[HughMoran]

11. It's a diarrhea cone and BP's gonna lick it

...to the last drop. You stupid fuckers - do something :mad:

[flamingdem]

13. I am sure that the color is much blacker than earlier today, correctemundo? nt

[HughMoran]

17. Then it's Pepto Bismal diarrhea

It's a shit sandwich then - either way, it's shit.

[gateley]

25. It's pretty damn black, I'll give you that. It's hard to know if it's just the angle,

less dispersant, lighting, or MORE OIL. :scared:

[gateley]

29. There's a cam shot on cnn.com that shows a lighter color (just trying to make you feel better).

[nenagh]

10. Love this ROV Undersea Thread/s .. many thanks..

Over at TheOilDrum there is a great comment on the new thread.. originally by Shelburn, but recopied by Peter B.

If someone with more smarts than I have could link it here, it has a great explanation of what is going on..

He says the problem won't be to get the oil to flow, up the pipe, but to keep it from flowing too fast..

BP will need to throttle back the flow until they get a volume they are comfortable with, because they will separate the oil and gas and the gas will go to a flare to be burned.

They want to obtain a stable flow, and not have a sudden uncontrolled flow, which would be dangerous..think explosion etc.

Anyway the whole comment is worth reading :)

It's not just oil flowing from the well, but a combination of oil with dissolved gas, supercritical methane gas and NGL. (Google says that is natural gas liquids)

[gateley]

18. That makes sense. I'll see if I can go grab it and post it here -- thanks! nt

[fishbulb703]

12. Funny how they keep blocking the view of the disperents being pumped.

[HughMoran]

20. Not really

I've watched hours of this cam and you can see the dispersant being sprayed continuously. http://mfile.akamai.com/97892/live/reflector:45685.asx?bkup=49182

You can't always see the spray because they attempt to get it right inside the flow, but the line is visible and "Dispersant Ops" is right there.

[Feron]

16. For those that were wondering what Compatt Recovery is...

<cdawzrd>For those who were wondering, Deep C / Mill 22 ROV is picking up beacons off the seafloor and returning them to a crane to be hauled out.

From the IRC chat.

[malaise]

19. You're doing great work here gateley

:yourock: :D

oops

[gateley]

23. Why, thanks, malaise! Everybody is contributing. We're riveted, needless to say.

I am so sickened and heartbroken about this situation (I'm still really sad today after seeing AC show an oil covered bird gasping for breath last night). At least it helps to focus on what they're doing, and understanding it a little is better than just wondering what the fuck is taking so long -- we KNOW now how time consuming it is. Any projections that this crap may come your way?

[malaise]

44. I haven't seen any

but I know Cuba and the Bahamas are worried. I'll check with our experts. What a catastrophe.

[malaise]

108. This was released today

The Secretary-General of #CARICOM, Edwin Carrington, says a recent change in wind patterns could push the oil from a broken underwater well off the US coast towards tourism dependent members such as The Bahamas and Jamaica. The issue will be discussed at Thursday's meeting in Barbados between US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and regional foreign ministers.

[gateley]

21. Although I'm still optimistic about this effort, a couple of 'real life' posts from TOD -

They're a reminder that there is no easy, quick solution:

Certainly, the technology today is much more advanced than when engineers fought to shut down Ixtoc, but even in modern context, relief wells don't always go smoothly.

Last August, the Thai company PTT Exploration and Production Co. was drilling the Montara well in 260 feet of water in the Timor Sea off of Australia when it well blew up and began leaking oil into the ocean.

It took 10 weeks and five tries for the drilling rig brought in to drill the relief well to hit its target about 8,600 feet below the sea floor. On the last try, there was another rig explosion, which burned for two days.

The oil was finally stopped on Nov. 3, and it took until mid-January to cap the well, according to news reports.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Don Van Nieuwenhuise, a University of Houston geologist, said that BP will have to tread carefully to avoid the problems encountered at Montara.

"You have to be very careful, because you don't want to have another blowout if you hit petroleum or gas in another level, " Van Nieuwenhuise said. "Any relief or kill well needs to be drilled with more caution than the first well, because you don't want a repeat performance."

Van Nieuwenhuise speaks from experience. In 1979, he worked on killing a gas well in the Gulf of Mexico that blew up when workers ran out of drilling mud. Even though it was only in about 60 feet of water, it took about four and a half months to cap the well by drilling a relief well because of concerns about pockets of gas. "We had to stop drilling every 500 feet, " said Van Nieuwenhuise, who was working for Mobil in New Orleans at the time.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6560

[gateley]

22. Another important thread from TOD -- A REALISTIC view of Top Hat:

The Top Hat Seal

For a number of reasons the top hat seal is NOT a pressure seal. It is designed to try to keep seawater out, not to keep oil in.

Let me repeat - The top hat seal is NOT a pressure seal. It is designed to try to keep seawater out, not to keep oil in.

Any water that can get in at the bottom of the top hat will form methane hydrates and probably block up the pipe. If that happens as they are beginning to start a slow flow it just means another setback.

But it is much more likely to happen when there is substantial flow going up the line and they are starting to “pull suction”. At that point there is a high flow rate and the “water hammer” effect of suddenly stopping a mile long slug of oil and gas could easily start tearing the equipment apart, probably at the top hat or onboard the ship so it becomes a safety issue not just another failure.

The top hat is not designed to take any significant pressure, certainly not the pressure that could result from sealing to the BOP so that pressure must be able to escape - through the seal area. Even 1,000 psi would blow the top hat apart and there is potentially about 9,000 to 13,000 psi at the BOP

And at this point I think they are scared enough of the integrity of the well head and BOP connection that they don’t want to have any pressure build up which would happen if you sealed the top hat to the flange.

There are other safety issues that are solved by not having a solid seal.

1. The rig must be able to shut off the flow on deck at any time and the resultant flow has to go somewhere - which is out the top hat seal

2. The rig must be able to pull away from the well at any time in an emergency and just raising the top hat off the BOP solves this problem.

Flow to the Surface

The flow to the surface is through a drill pipe from the top of the top hat. The drill pipe should be able to flow between 20,000 to 30,000 bpd or more if it was 100% oil – NO PUMPS NEEDED. With gas in the flow the amount of potential flow is even greater. In any case the processing system on the ship cannot handle as much as the pipe can transport.

The oil is about 0.85 specific gravity. If the drill pipe was filled just with oil the buoyancy of the oil will raise the pressure at the surface to close to 400 psi. If filled with gas the pressure would be about 2,000 psi.

The problem won’t be to get the oil to flow but to keep it from flowing too fast. They will throttle (choke) the flow back to get the volume they are comfortable with and then pipe the oil and gas, still under some pressure, into a separator vessel where the pressure will be reduced and the gas will go to the flare to be burned and the oil will go into a storage tank.

The product flowing from the bottom will be a mixture of oil (with dissolved gas), NGLs and super-critical methane gas. Hopefully there will be no water as that can really mess things up. During its journey to the surface, and through the processing system there will be a number of changes as gas dissolves out of the oil, the methane goes from super-critical to gas, some of the NGL will turn to gas and all the gas will eventually expands about 150 times before it hits the flare.

The optimum flow at any time will have to be determined by trial and error on the rig. If they were to open it up quickly they might get lucky and obtain a stable flow quickly. The downside of trying to do it quickly is that you could suck in water setting back the whole process for hours or days or worst case end up with an uncontrolled flow on the ship resulting explosion and fire with fatalities and another disaster.

So the fact that it could take a period of days to reach maximum flow is no surprise.

The oil gas ratio in the flow from the well will probably keep varying all the time and coupled with the phase changes and gas expansion will be a continuing problem for the processing crew on the rig. I expect that is the reason we saw daily changes in the amount of oil recovered by the RITT."

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6560

-----

[HughMoran]

27. Well, I said 24 hours

They are saying maybe longer. OK, but I'd like to see some visible reduction in flow :D

[gateley]

30. Boy, wouldn't we all! nt

[flamingdem]

33. big time nt

[jaxx]

46. Very good info.

Days, not hours, to get it really going. The safety issues make sense, and the last thing we want is another blowout. :-(

[tiptoe]

26. After riser was sheared, should Dsaw have been re-tried, before going for the "looser-fitting" cap?

That's what I expected after the shear was completed.

from: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37463005/ns/disaster_in_the_gulf/#storyContinued (June 4)

...
The jagged cut forced crews to use a looser fitting cap, but Allen did not rule out trying to again smooth out the cut with the diamond saw if officials aren't satisfied with the current cap.
...

Thad Allen admits a re-try of the diamond-saw is not (thus, never was) "ruled out."

The situation did not force BP "to use a looser fitting cap"...BP merely chose the latter option, instead of first re-attempting the original, known-more-desirable plan for the "clean cut", i.e., after the fallen riser (and BOP-tilt stress) was removed.

Now, days must pass (anticipable) before engineers truly might be forced to abandon the (known-in-advance) less-desirable option due to continued "leaking" (i.e. spewing) and/or inability to close the valves (as someone speculated).

The secondary option taken -- with its risks and delays -- seems more like an experiment (perhaps 'just to test how the secondary option works at 5000 feet'?) rather than the most expedient address of the problem.

"BP is operating at our direction," Obama said. "Every key decision and action they take must be approved by us in advance." If the Coast Guard orders BP to do something, he added, "they are legally bound to do it."
( http://www.bostonherald.com/news/us_politics/view/20100528president_obama_says_white_house_in_control_of_oil_spill_response/ May 28)

Engineering operations decisions by BP would seem "key".

(unless the engineers actually know/believe the "wobbly" inner drill pipe is too problematic for the Dsaw to address...except, presumably, Dsaw "clean cuts" of riser+drill-pipe assemblies have succeeded in past, water-depth notwithstanding. Another possibility: certain interests at BP are wanting to deliberately drag out the matter of solution...vs pollution...and the White House and its expert advisors are not, in fact, fully in charge of "every key decision and action" by BP.)

[gateley]

40. I'm guessing that if they thought it would work they would have tried it (if it

was a better option). So much of the time it seems as though they don't know which Step 2 to take until Step 1 is completed.

[tiptoe]

86. I'm guessing that relentless, defiant toxic-Corexit-user CEO T. Hayward is stalling for a hurricane

to disperse evidence of the amount of oil spilled, as "natural assistance" strictly for purposes of minimizing BP assessments for liability.

"....the damage from this particular spill is going to be so massive -- if you include the economic damages, if you include ecological damages. If they decide to go after them, they could bleed BP dry" -- Ezra Klein, MSNBC contributor, Newsweek, Washington Post (4:24)

CEO Tony Hayward -- presumably reflective of 'BP gestalt' -- has shown himself to be nothing but a parochial corporatist with absolutely ZERO ecological or public conscientiousness -- i.e., all bottomline business, British polite, corporate-defined, -refined and -confined, and publicly/ecologically bankrupt. Here is a litany of examples from MSNBC, Keith Olbermann: BP Wreaks havoc on the Gulf -- A record of CEO Tony Hayward's response through Day 46 (June 4)

Here's his defiance of EPA orders to desist from use of dispersant Corexit: BP refuses EPA order to switch to less-toxic oil dispersant -- Oil washes ashore on 50 miles of Louisiana shoreline as tensions mount over how to treat the spill in the Gulf of Mexico. (May 28)

http://www.google.com/search?client=opera&rls=en&q=%2BEPA%20%2Bcorexit%20%2Border&oe=utf-8&um=1&ie=UTF-8&tbo=u&tbs=nws:1&source=og&sa=N&hl=en&tab=wn

...
What will the hurricane do to the oil slick in the Gulf?
• The high winds and seas will mix and “weather” the oil which can help accelerate the biodegradation process.
• The high winds may distribute oil over a wider area, but it is difficult to model exactly where the oil may be transported.
• Movement of oil would depend greatly on the track of the hurricane.
• Storms’ surges may carry oil into the coastline and inland as far as the surge reaches. Debris resulting from the hurricane may be contaminated by oil from the Deepwater Horizon incident, but also from other oil releases that may occur during the storm.
• A hurricane’s winds rotate counter-clockwise.
...
source: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/05/30/what-happens-if-a-hurricane-hits-the-gulf-oil-slick/

What I gathered from the Technical Brief by Kent Wells, the LMRP Cap options I or II requires -- *after the riser has been sheared* -- an "...important horizontal cut using diamond wire cut (that) creates the surface that we need in order to properly put the LMRP cap down on it." (5:50 http://bp.concerts.com/gom/kentwellstechupdatelong053110.htm )

Since the diamond saw was abandoned after 'getting stuck' (with, btw, the BOP still tilted, and the first shearing of the riser occurring only *after* the aborted cut-attempt, i.e, backwards from what Kent Wells describes in the tech brief video), there does not yet exist the important "surface to properly put the LMRP cap down..."

So, whatever's going on now with the improperly-seated LMRP Cap I (basically floating, valves open) seems irrelevant for any sealable, working solution; the necessary surface has not yet been created using the Diamond saw. Attempt to prevent leakage by "closing the valves" will simply fail (no sealable surface, what a surprise).

But, as Thad Allen reported today, return to the diamond saw is "not ruled out"(!) Well, if that's the case -- and if, as Kent Wells briefs us on May 28, an "important horizontal cut" is required for LMRP Cap I or II -- then why wasn't the diamond saw attempt SIMPLY RESUMED *after* the first riser shearing was completed (as per Kent Wells' brief) and *before* the lowering of the LMRP cap?!

What's been going on these past few days -- engineering-wise backasswards -- seems to have been nothing more than a dog-and-pony show 5000' below the surface, i.e., a complete waste of time.

Great news, though, for some CEO's purposes of "buying time" for dispersal of the biggest-oil-slick-the-world's-ever-seen-and-is-yet-to-see-more for minimizing potential BP massive liability.

I suspect the higher ups at BP would love to have a hurricane, and I noticed the winds were whipping the hair of Rachel Maddow on her visit Friday to one of the islands.

Does anyone believe the CEO of a company-in-crisis doesn't direct strategy of engineering operations? Or are Obama's experts in complete charge of "every key decision and action" BP takes?

[NYC_SKP]

110. Thanks for contributing, tiptoe.

I'm a big fan of your postings on any topic.

:hi:

[NYC_SKP]

28. Hey, team!

Just checking in briefly.

Looks like not much progress, but no unexpected obstacles either, right?

We're heading out to run errands, will check in again this evening.

Keep up the excellent work, Club-mates!

:thumbsup:

[flamingdem]

32. Oh everything is just fine! Go out and have a good time, we'll be fine!

[Bryn]

34. This is great, made me laugh because that's how I feel with all that gushing oil shit

I'd love to insert it in emails. How do I do that? If I saved it as picture, it probably would become still?

I love this animated image.

[flamingdem]

35. Here's the link. Don't know if it will work in email. It's accurate for me too!

[gateley]

41. I'm not seeing the link and I want it! Tell me what I'm doing wrong. nt

[flamingdem]

58. Whoops. Just take out the spaces and this should work.

http:// www.desvirtual.com /escape/avi/mocinha.gif

[gateley]

65. Perfect -- thanks! (I couldn't get it to jiggle in an e-mail, though) nt

[NYC_SKP]

53. LOL! We had fun, but were followed home by these strange kittehs!

[gateley]

107. I. Love. This. nt

[gateley]

42. Hey! Hope you enjoyed your drive and time away.

This is another waiting game, like when the saw was stuck. Sigh. But, we're a step closer! :thumbsup:

[flamingdem]

31. theoildrum.com good explanation of the LMRP and the delicate procedure going on

It is obvious that most people do not understand the basics of how the top hat is supposed to operate. And BP, per usual, has not thought it necessary to explain anything.

The Top Hat Seal

For a number of reasons the top hat seal is NOT a pressure seal. It is designed to try to keep seawater out, not to keep oil in.

Let me repeat - The top hat seal is NOT a pressure seal. It is designed to try to keep seawater out, not to keep oil in.

Any water that can get in at the bottom of the top hat will form methane hydrates and probably block up the pipe. If that happens as they are beginning to start a slow flow it just means another setback.

But it is much more likely to happen when there is substantial flow going up the line and they are starting to “pull suction”. At that point there is a high flow rate and the “water hammer” effect of suddenly stopping a mile long slug of oil and gas could easily start tearing the equipment apart, probably at the top hat or onboard the ship so it becomes a safety issue not just another failure.

The top hat is not designed to take any significant pressure, certainly not the pressure that could result from sealing to the BOP so that pressure must be able to escape - through the seal area. Even 1,000 psi would blow the top hat apart and there is potentially about 9,000 to 13,000 psi at the BOP

And at this point I think they are scared enough of the integrity of the well head and BOP connection that they don’t want to have any pressure build up which would happen if you sealed the top hat to the flange.

There are other safety issues that are solved by not having a solid seal.

1. The rig must be able to shut off the flow on deck at any time and the resultant flow has to go somewhere - which is out the top hat seal

2. The rig must be able to pull away from the well at any time in an emergency and just raising the top hat off the BOP solves this problem.

Flow to the Surface

The flow to the surface is through a drill pipe from the top of the top hat. The drill pipe should be able to flow between 20,000 to 30,000 bpd or more if it was 100% oil – NO PUMPS NEEDED. With gas in the flow the amount of potential flow is even greater. In any case the processing system on the ship cannot handle as much as the pipe can transport.

The oil is about 0.85 specific gravity. If the drill pipe was filled just with oil the buoyancy of the oil will raise the pressure at the surface to close to 400 psi. If filled with gas the pressure would be about 2,000 psi.

The problem won’t be to get the oil to flow but to keep it from flowing too fast. They will throttle (choke) the flow back to get the volume they are comfortable with and then pipe the oil and gas, still under some pressure, into a separator vessel where the pressure will be reduced and the gas will go to the flare to be burned and the oil will go into a storage tank.

The product flowing from the bottom will be a mixture of oil (with dissolved gas), NGLs and super-critical methane gas. Hopefully there will be no water as that can really mess things up. During its journey to the surface, and through the processing system there will be a number of changes as gas dissolves out of the oil, the methane goes from super-critical to gas, some of the NGL will turn to gas and all the gas will eventually expands about 150 times before it hits the flare.

The optimum flow at any time will have to be determined by trial and error on the rig. If they were to open it up quickly they might get lucky and obtain a stable flow quickly. The downside of trying to do it quickly is that you could suck in water setting back the whole process for hours or days or worst case end up with an uncontrolled flow on the ship resulting explosion and fire with fatalities and another disaster.

So the fact that it could take a period of days to reach maximum flow is no surprise.

The oil gas ratio in the flow from the well will probably keep varying all the time and coupled with the phase changes and gas expansion will be a continuing problem for the processing crew on the rig. I expect that is the reason we saw daily changes in the amount of oil recovered by the RITT.
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[scheming daemons]

36. It appears that BP has shut down all the cameras.... the bastards...

...

[doublethink]

37. I still have 2 cameras up at this link .....

http://blog.alexanderhiggins.com/bp-live-oil-spill-cam.html

bottom right 2 ...... but usually there are at least 4 going ... so who knows how long these will be up ...

on edit: seems more cameras are coming back online ....

[gateley]

39. 2 cams still up on cnn.com, but see BP? This is what happens when you've

shown yourselves to be the duplicitous bastards you are. Even a possible innocent glitch is met with suspicion.

[Feron]

38. BP: In first 12 hours,1810 barrels of oil were collected.

A full report to be issued June 5 at 9am CDT.

http://twitter.com/BP_America/status/15449822416

[csziggy]

43. Cool - Skandi ROV 2 has a spiffy new yellow monkeys fist!

Really bright yellow. Somebody must have made it up just today, maybe in celebration of getting the Top Cap on.

[gateley]

45. I saw that! I thought it may have been my screen or the camera angle, but

as you say, it was really bright yellow!

[NYC_SKP]

51. Is it a four-strand or a five-strand monkey fist? Can you tell?

Just throwing around knot-tying terminology here...

:hi:

[csziggy]

54. I think it is only a four strand.

I wonder what they use to make them buoyant that can stay buoyant at that depth?

[NYC_SKP]

55. Tennis Ball, Handball, not sure of the size.

These are floaters, for sure.

All the one's I've tied have been for throwing or as key fobs, or just for practice, so lead spheres or marbles.

They are cool, they started popping up about the same time the saw failed, now they're in one shot or another any time of day...

:hi:

[Brother Buzz]

68. A monkey's fist doesn't necessarily have anything inside it.

I assume it is mad from Polypropylene line. Polypropylene floats.

http://www.animatedknots.com/monkeysfist/index.php

[NYC_SKP]

98. Nice link, IIRC, a three strand fist is empty, four or five almost have to have something inside.

:hi:

At least for the ones I've tied.

[csziggy]

75. But a tennis ball or handball would smush flat at that depth!

Or would it? I can't find any info on tennis balls under pressure that is applicable. I did find a cool gun to use tennis ball to shoot lines over trees to rig antennas. http://www.antennalaunchers.com/TBLa1.pdf That could be amusing.

Since the rope is probably nylon polypropylene, maybe they just started around a knot and built up from there. Nylon rope is somewhat buoyant anyway so it should still be under pressure/depth.

[NYC_SKP]

97. Doh!

I agree poly would make more sense.

Plenty of solid materials would be bouyant down there, but a hollow sphere is the perfect pressure resisting form.

Titanium!!!

:hi:

[Duer 157099]

47. So is there anything worth watching today?

I haven't been paying attention, I mean after the mega adventure of the capping, this current stuff just seems so boring.

Am I missing anything? I mean anything worthwhile? Robot sex, that kind of thing?

[gateley]

48. Somebody just mentioned it seems the flow has abated a bit -- I'm going to go

check it out.

[Owl]

49. The Live Oil Gusher Cam is pretty damned depressing; an unrelenting flood of toxc crap.

[Individualist]

57. ...day 46 of an unrelenting flood of toxic crap.

:grr:

[jaxx]

50. Checking in and seeing the oil still rising.

I read through the articles posted and okkkkk, I can wait while they try to ensure safety. But the coast is starting to look like a catch-all and I wonder why it has taken 45 days to come in. Maybe something to do with it being so deep and 50 miles out?

Thanks to all for keeping the threads up and all the info. Does it seem to you all that we have been here for a long time? August is far away....and the last hope for a relief well to do the job. We knew this top hat wasn't the final answer, dammit!

[gateley]

63. What I DIDN'T realize until I saw That Allen on Rachel is that the goal of the relief

well is to kill the well. I figured it would just send the oil pumping to a different well and they would carry on from there. Some of what he said sounded like what they attempted in top kill, so I don't know what the diff is, only that it's the only proven method. I'm just so hopeful that they can contain ANYTHING between now and then!

[HughMoran]

66. 'Bottom Kill' (what a relief well does) is easier because you're feeding the mud with the flow

you inject mud at the bottom of the well with the direction of flow up the leaking well. Before long the well is full of mud and the oil can't overcome the backpressure created by the much heavier (denser) mud. At this point it's easy to inject the cement and seal it up for good.

[gateley]

70. Oh! I've heard them use the term 'bottom kill' I didn't know that's what they

were referring to. Thanks! :hi:

[Feron]

81. It can get confusing because lately....

they've been calling phase 2 of the current containment operation "bottom kill" as well.

Basically in that containment strategy what they are going to do is suck out oil in the hoses and manifold in position for topkill.

[csziggy]

52. Is it me or does the amount of oil coming out look less?

I think I am seeing more of the fins on the Top Cap showing than has been before now. If that is true, that means BP is increasing the amount of oil it is pulling up through the pipe.

Remember, they have to allow some oil to escape to prevent sea water from getting in and creating hydrate that will freeze and block the pipe, so there will continue to be some oil coming out until they finally kill this thing completely.

But I really do think there is less escaping!

[HughMoran]

59. I can't tell if the volume it less. but the cap is NOT buffeting around as much

In fact, the cap seems steady and solid now, previously it was buffeting all over the place. So, something has changed.

[csziggy]

69. Have they closed the vents on top of the cap yet?

I had to meet with the vet today, then an old friend dropped by so I have not spent much time today watching the cameras. I have not seen any of the ROVs watching the vents today, so I wonder if that is not longer a factor?

[HughMoran]

74. the vents are open

they just showed them a few minutes back while the ROV was moving around. Seems a lot more is leaking around the bottom though it's difficult to tell.

[csziggy]

77. I know there is less leaking than last night/ early this morning.

Ooops - spoke too soon - it suddenly increased in flow!

Last night, you almost could not see the fins, even now they are still mostly visible.

[tekisui]

61. The cut increased the flow.

So, while they are capturing some, we don't yet know if they are capturing more than was increased with the cut.

[gristy]

56. OK, I admit it. I'm lazy.

Someone tell me if they are considering (or if anyone has talked about) putting a big-ass pump in-line between the cap and the riser up to the surface. It would seem a simple matter to regulate the flow rate through the pump, perhaps automatically (think servo loop, with appropriate stability analysis), such that very little oil goes into the ocean and very little ocean enters the oil.

[NYC_SKP]

60. Those who seem to know about these things say that the physics will do the trick...

That the oil is less dense than the heavier sea water and at 5,000 feet deep, the pressure will send the oil up the tube/pipe without a problem.

However, with the added features of injected methanol and hot water, the whole affair seems to be taking a long, long, time.

:shrug:

[gristy]

64. The nice thing about a pump under servo control is that the oil leakage

would be absolutely minimized. Measure the oil pressure on the inside and the water pressure on the outside. When the oil pressure is higher than the water pressure, speed the pump up. When the oil pressure is less than the water pressure, slow the pump down. Stability analysis will tell you what kind of filter (lead, lag, lead-lag, or whatever) you need in the loop to make sure the servo is stable. Once steady state is reached, you have zero differential pressure between the oil and the water, and very little of either flowing across the cracks in the cap-BOP interface.

Thy physics of the riser column may be all that's needed to pull the oil and gas up, but the pump can be used to slow down the flow just as it can be used to speed up the flow, again for the purpose of maintaining a differential pressure of zero.

[gateley]

62. One thing I've come to realize, these people have considered all the angles so

if that were a viable option, they'd have done it, or may still.

[nadinbrzezinski]

67. Hoit robot action

I must say, that in a gallows way, it is fascinating to watch

[gateley]

71. So what do you think, guys - should we do another thread or give it a break until

something occurs?

[nadinbrzezinski]

72. Somethng happens and

I am having a hell of a time connecting tonight...

[gateley]

73. I'm confused -- is that a vote to wait until something happens? And by connecting

do you mean internet connection?

[nadinbrzezinski]

76. Until sometihng happens

and the Mac is having a hell of a time connecting with anything tonight

[gateley]

78. Impossible. Must be operator error.

Macs are perfect. :)

Okay, then until something happens, think I'll head off to bed. If I have to get up in the middle of the night I can't stop myself from checking in. :7

:hi:

[nadinbrzezinski]

79. But flash is not

good night

[scheming daemons]

80. Depressing... the flow looks as bad or worse than last night

I can't believe they're retrieving much of it.

I'd be surprised if they're getting 20%.


We need to focus our efforts on cleanup. Costner's machine... microbes... supertankers sucking it up... whatever we can do.


Then... after August... we go to work trying to bring back the ecosystem over time. Repopulating, restocking, etc.


And we take every single penny BP has until their bank accounts run dry.

[Cleita]

82. Friends, we have to hang in here.

It seems they are counting on us going away because of inactivity.

[jaxx]

83. We'll hang in there.

I noticed some smack talk out there and have tried to keep out of it....awww but my fingers were itching. We all know this isn't going to be solved in a day and no amount of demanding is going to change that fact. That's why these threads have kept going....common sense.

[gateley]

106. Hi! You're right - that's the difference between here and there. nt

[NYC_SKP]

94. That is a fact!

:toast:

There are other threads about blame and the politics of this.

I like that ours is about the progress, the engineering, and, in a sense, rooting for the robots and engineers.

And just staying more informed than the media and 99% or more than others.

:donut:

[Feron]

84. Enterprise ROV 2 is having a hard time.

Apparently they are trying to reach a valve on the hat, but the ROV is pushed away by the current everytime it tries to latch on.

Right now it's stationary and I'm sure they're trying to figure out how to get it latched on.

[jaxx]

85. This is how it looked around 12am.

So they really are moving around down there? All the feeds appear to be stationary.

[RoyGBiv]

87. Lots of hat rocking back and forth ...

Been monitoring the Oil Drum IRC channel for awhile now and checking the video feeds occasionally.

Seems the "hat" started rocking around a lot about fifteen minutes ago or so, although the cause is not immediately apparent other than turbulence. Whether that turbulence is near the hat itself or occurring somewhere up the pipe isn't clear.

Probably not a huge deal, but that's the first real movement I've seen in awhile.

And, just as a side note, I've officially lost my mind.



At least I had sense enough to turn the cameras off that weren't showing anything but test patterns. :)

[tiptoe]

88. a couple of threads ago, someone else noticed the cap "rocking". It's just

floating, unseated on any flat surface, because the diamond saw never completed its "important horizontal cut"...

See #86 http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=8486890&mesg_id=8490704

[RoyGBiv]

89. Yeah, that's the basic problem ...

The fact it's floating is allowing it to rock around. What they were commenting on was that the rocking suddenly got more violent. It was enough that a couple of the TOD regulars were commenting on it.

I'm logging the IRC channel and will scan it later for info. They've had to deal with a few trolls this evening that interrupted the flow of conversation.

But, yeah, it's not going to stop doing that. I wonder what would happen to this contraption should a tropical storm come through. Nothing good, I imagine.

[tiptoe]

90. that basic problem could/should have been addressed by resuming the diamond-saw

attempt.

There simply was no reason not to have resumed the horizontal cut; it's the protocol described in Kent Wells' tech brief.

What's going on now is, basically, a ruse and a stall (for non-engineering reasons), not a serious attempt at an engineering solution, imo.

[HughMoran]

99. You're talking out of school

I don't think that the saw could make a clean cut with the drill pipe there AND it wouldn't matter since the pipe is not ROUND any more AND the 'stopper' couldn't seal properly with that chunk of drill pipe in the riser.

Besides, there's no reason to believe that the stopper could or would have been able to seal to the inside of the pipe with that massive amount of oil flow lifting it off the BOP. This solution may actually be the better one in the long run.

The real problem is trying to suck this massive flow of oil without having a mechanical blowout at the surface that ends up killing more people. There's a large volume of methane gas in the flow that expands and creates pressure at the surface. This gas must be separated and burned off without making any KABOOM up there.

If you want to get a better idea what's going on - read the entire conversation here http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6558#comment-639943 - it's very enlightening.

[tiptoe]

109. T. Allen wouldn't have been 'talking out of school' when he "did not rule out trying to again...

...smooth out the cut with the diamond saw..."

Whatever the preceptive or reasoning basis for an opinion that precludes a resumption of the diamond saw, apparently it differs from that of BP engineers, per the Thad Allen comment yesterday.**

Thank you, btw, for the link to the TOD material.

...
The challenge will be to control this suction by regulating the flow so that it draws in as much oil as possible without also sucking in seawater.

They want a somewhat leaky seal. The reason for this is so that they can be sure it is not sucking in seawater. They will have to allow some leakage of oil out the bottom as an indicator that they have accomplished this. An almost-but-not-quite watertight seal, such as would likely be the result of efforts to make a truly watertight seal under those conditions, would be the worst option. It would be very easy to allow the pressure at the junction to drop too low so that it sucked water in through the small leaks. This water would rapidly form clathrates with the methane and clog the riser. The clathrates would be stable under ambient conditions at that depth, so they would have to be cleaned out before pumping could be resumed. Meanwhile static pressures in the well below the clog would increase dramatically, possibly leading to an even worse blowout.

Believe it or not, they really have thought this plan through. No guarantee of success, but they are not just slapping things together mindlessly on the fly as some seem to think.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6558#comment-640086
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6558#comment-640124

Allowing a "somewhat leaky" seal at the bottom could be accomplished (I suppose) with any cap option used, simply by not necessarily tightly-sealing any of them. That doesn't seem reason enough for abandoning the clean cut with the diamond saw, which at least allows the option to seal "almost tightly", to whatever degree closable-valve feedback pressures permit and with crystals-formation issues addressed. And if, as bb551 asserts, "they really have thought this plan through," then, presumably, 1) prior to initiating the attempted DSAW cut they *had* addressed the issues wrt to the "almost-water-tight seal...worst option" that the DSAW approach might afford, and 2) the DSAW operation was aborted "on the fly" by non-engineering decision, as might be implied by "the big wigs running this show", here:

‘Morons’ was my thought many times as I watched….

1) Cutting off riser was bad idea, but what do I know.
2) So called teams of professionals were not ahead of the game in staging
3) Not completing the job using diamond cutter
4) Using shear to cut and deform flange, scared the hell out of me
5) How they tried to cut the tab off after shearing, tools required not available
6) When cutting complete, looked like some ‘hack’ worked on it
7) The tangled hose mess before dropping containment cap
8) Now they have more flow than before

This is not a slam against ROV operators, but the big wigs running this show.

**Here is the original google-cached content that after yesterday has disappeared from the same-titled article today:

...
To put the cap in place, BP had to slice off the main pipe with giant shears after a diamond-edged saw became stuck. By doing so, they risked increasing the flow by as much as 20 percent, though Allen said it was still too soon know whether that had happened.

BP Chief Operating Officer Doug Suttles told NBC's TODAY that oil has started flowing up the pipe from the cap.

But Suttles said it will be later before they know how much is being captured from the nation's worst oil spill.

"There is flow coming up the pipe," he said. "Just now, I don't know the exact rate."

The jagged cut forced crews to use a looser fitting cap, but Allen did not rule out trying to again smooth out the cut with the diamond saw if officials aren't satisfied with the current cap.

The best chance to plug the leak is a pair of relief wells, which are at least two months away. The well has spit out between 22 million and 47 million gallons of oil, according to government estimates.
...

[lamp_shade]

91. New cap? This comment on TheOilDrum at 7:27 am > >

"7:27am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top Just an update on what I am observing down there right now on the ROV cams. Seems they are prepping for another cap. Maybe. They have lowered, in a basket, what looks to me like another cap (this one numbered "5")."
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6562

[NYC_SKP]

92. Good find, lamp_shade!

Good luck, number 5!

:donut:

[lamp_shade]

93. Loved this response to a posters attempt to inject politics > >

"I'm sure you'll find a more suitable forum to pontificate on, while the good people here work to solve the immediate problem at hand. There will be plenty of time later for ranting and politics. Right now the brightest technical minds are striving to solve the debacle at hand."

... and several other scoldings following that one.

[jaxx]

95. You are on the ball lamp_shade!

When we think they're sleeping, they're hard at work.

[HughMoran]

101. I was wondering about that

I noticed them eyeballing a different cap the other day. We'll see if this is what's next...

[jaxx]

96. I'll go try to put thread #22 up.

Give me a few....

[NYC_SKP]

100. Thanks, jaxx.

I gotta work all day...then drive another six hours home from where I'm working.

:hi:

[jaxx]

103. No problem,..just had to figure out the images .

gately has a great starter post and I wanted to keep the integrity. ;-)

[jaxx]

102. Thread #22 is up and running.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=8491393&mesg_id=8491393

See you there.

[HughMoran]

104. thanxx jaxx

:hi:

[lamp_shade]

105. TheOilDrum just started a new thread - node 6564 > >

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6564