Systems Analysis and how deep down the pike are we

[nadinbrzezinski]

or how much trouble we are in...

We depend on the oily stuff, not as the United States, but a global civilization. Yes, it is used by the United States Military, they are up there in users, but they are not the top user. As much as I'd like to think that, the top user actually is agriculture. Most people don't realize just how much of the crap goes into a bushel of corn. No, it is not just the gas used for the tractors... it is the oil that goes into the insecticides and all the other chemicals of industrial agriculture. It goes into the gas used at harvest time, to process the things and transport to your markets, through distribution centers first, and then to your homes. It includes the oil needed to cook it.

This is a problem, and I fear we are too immature to realize this. We are too immature to realize why we have not been asked to conserve. While it might make us feel better, and I do by the way, what we need are REAL changes in how we all live. It needs REAL alternate sources of energy... and until all that happens, well they have us by the short hairs... to be crude about it.

Now we might "punish" BP and go after operators... mark my words INDIVIDUAL members of the rig will be thrown under the buss when all is said and done (and by the way should be prosecuted), but in the end nobody will go after the big boys. No, not because they "own the government" but because there are NO DAMN alternatives right now.

Deal with it, or not. But that is the FIRST thing to realize.

Oh and personally don't expect the real changes needed to prevent a civilization collapse. That train left the station when Carter gave the malaise speech, and his poll numbers plummeted... Americans, no, correct that, humans... are not really ready to face the truth. It don't help that we are treated like children, but the reaction back then taught our fearless leaders a lesson... while some of us GET IT... most Americans don't give a shit as long as they get their junk, and right now millions of people WANT to join us... why I said this is a human problem.

But we all depend on the stuff, and no matter all the screaming and belly aching, and personally I'd rather we stopped used RIGHT NOW, that ain't gonna happen. We depend on the stuff, and the dealers have us by the short hairs...

Oh and I do expect people to go, but you are defending BP... you are blaming me, you are being condescending... what did I say about children? There you go.

[FarCenter]

1. It takes over 1 calorie of fossil fuel to put 1 calorie of food on the table

I remember reading that a couple decades ago. It is probably worse now.

Modern civilization is based on fossil fuels.

Biofuels ran short in England -- practically all the English forests had been cut down for firewood and for conversion to charcoal for use in smelting iron ore and forging iron.

Holland and Spain used wind power.

Waterwheels were heavily used in most areas. Many eastern rivers are far from natural because they were dammed by the first settlers in the areas.

None of these sources provides enough power for modern civilization with the population densities that we now have.

Nuclear fission power, solar power, and thermonuclear fusion power are the only hopes of preventing a population crash as fossil fuel runs out mid 21st century, when the remaing 1.2 trillion barrels or so runs out.

[Scuba]

11. Seems to me the moon provides all the power we need.

Harness the tides. This is what we should done with the money that went in tax breaks for big oil - the most profitable industry in the history of commerce.

[tabatha]

2. Asking people to conserve is asking people to "give up their freedom"

to do whatever they want, when they want and how they want.

"We are too immature" goes hand in hand with childish libertarianism.

The best thing to do for oneself is to reduce as much as possible the consumption of oil-related substances and products.

[nadinbrzezinski]

6. Yeah but in the overall scheme of thigs

what I do (which makes me feel better and responsible) is just a drop in the bucket. Not that I will stop.

That said, you are correct, and the US is pretty immature, but so are a slew of other national citizens. The best way to reform is when this is done at policy levels where most people don't even notice... for example MPG standards and better use of energy efficient construction materials, off the top of my head by the way.

[provis99]

3. conservation is incredibly easy; tie it to the price of gas.

If the government taxes the shit out of gasoline, say quintupling the price overnight, the average American idiot will be forced to conserve, or fork out $20 for a gallon of gas.

[nadinbrzezinski]

5. I am sorry but you are missing

just how deep we are down that road. Yes a DRIVER will probably conserve... I am not betting on it... but your car and mine are the MOST OBVIOUS uses of oil. Look around your house. How much of the crap you own or the food you eat are you willing to give up?

Why this is not a one thing solution... on the short term though that is PART of the solution, but truly a small part of the solution... longer term... well we need to move BEYOND this oil civilization. Given how much this is insidious to our global way of life... and that INCLUDES the green revolution...

[HALO141]

15. Then that "average American" also won't be able to afford to...

drive to work, pay for food, etc. Farmers won't be able to afford to grow the food. Truckers won't be able to afford to transport the food or any other goods. Local police departments, already struggling with their budgets, won't be able to afford gas for the cruisers so when the robbing and looting starts you'll be on your own. (Hope you've invested in enough copper and lead to take care of yourself.) The entire country will, in fact, come to an abrupt and cataclysmic halt.

Guess we'll all just sit at home and starve to death.

great plan

[jwirr]

4. Thank you for this very vital message. One ray of hope is found in

Paul Hawken's book "Blessed Unrest". All over the world many people are trying to change at the grassroots. He calls it the largest revolution in history. I think he is right but we here in the US should be doing more because we can.

[BeFree]

7. Reduce use by 50%

That's not hard to do. Better gas mileage cars and alternatives are on the shelf.

The problem is the taxes on gas would have to double to keep the revenue streams. I think it's @45 cents a gallon right now. Government doesn't have the guts to do that, in fact they are inclined to grow use not conserve.

Reduce use by 50% and BP et al go out of business.

Reduce and in effect we double the time of the supplies in the ground.

[tabatha]

8. Yes, it is that our whole economy would go to hell

--- it is unfortunately based on moving products, moving money, etc.

If people don't have an income then there will be huge unrest.

Doing it so that it is not noticed is probably the right idea.

[nadinbrzezinski]

9. Current economy is based on

Just In Time... we got a glimpse of what happens when it is disrupted when the volcano went off. The parts that the Chinese factories needed were in Europe. They were put behind production by upwards of a year.

Oh and the best known example, that is the flowers in the Netherlands flower market, coming from what was it... a country in Central Africa (can't remember which exactly right now)... that was just a glimpse of it. Most folks missed the lesson, since it did not last long enough.

[tabatha]

10. Kenya, I think it was.

[Ozymanithrax]

12. When I was a kid in the 50's and 60's, if it came in a bottle it came in glass...

There was a huge industry in making glass containers, both those we throw away and reusable. I used to pick up used soda bottles and beer bottles along the side of the road, small one were worth 3 cents, large ones 5 cents. That industry doesn't even exist anymore. Everybody moved to making cheap, throw away, plastic bottles.

That is a symptom of our civilization.

Glass soda and beer bottles worked. You could reuse them. But it became cheaper to make a new bottle out of oil and tossed it in the shitter when done.

How many other industries are like this.

When I was a kid, you could repair stuff. I remember the TV repariman coming to our house and fixing the television. Many of the old tubes had gold in them so he would take those and recycle them. If a TV goes bad, it goes into a landfill. That is a symptom of our civilization. Oil is cheap, and so we throw it away when done.

[phasma ex machina]

16. It's only cheaper if you ignore the tail end of the process - landfills.

Bottlers arguably rank as some of the bigger proponents of throwaway plastic containers. The very same bottlers who spend a small fortune on advertising to convince people of their trail blazing "greenness."

At least Walmart recycles plastic shopping bags.

[nadinbrzezinski]

19. Yeah but for the FRONT user it is cheaper

and that is all the front user cares about.

Hell these days things are designed to fail... designed obsolescence is the name of it...

Hell a microwave of mine failed last week. It was fairly new as in five years or less. The first one I owned lasted 15 years... my mom's is still going strong... but this one failed as expected. And it isn't like I can go to the repair shop and get it fixed.

[librechik]

13. there are no alternatives because Big Oil has moved mountains to bury them

At some point we have to cut them loose. And they are not helping in the transition, which they surely know is coming, and BTW WILL SURELY PROFIT FROM THE CHANGE. It is not logical. It is madness.

[Scuba]

14. Nailed it. No public transportation, no R&D for alternative fuels, just tax cuts for Big Oil

[depakid]

17. "America's got a rail system that the Bulgarians would be embarrassed of!"

One thing I like about Kunstler's jeremiads is the colorfully descriptive language-

[nadinbrzezinski]

18. I am not talking of what shoudl be

but of what it is...

And what it is, well there are no alternatives.

And the children should grow up and realize it. That is the FIRST STEP.

[blueworld]

20. Where are your links & figures? You just sound depressed to me.

This resigned, victim attitude is compostable & destructive. We don't have to give it all up, we have to cut it way down. Living off the petroleum grid will not be possible for decades, but we could lop off our dependence on a few of the nuttier tyrants & oil barons rather easily.

The marketplace is responding slowly to our new shopping demands (hybrid vehicles, for ex.) but it will respond if we keep demanding. Some businesses will die & others will grow. Governors, county leaders & city managers will change planning & zoning & transportation rules adding fees for some things & offering credits for others.

If I can't walk I can schedule car trips to use less gas. If I run a business I can cut off unnecessary sales conventions & "morale boosting" business trips & invest in teleconferencing gear. I can grow some of my own veggies, shop locally & stop buying produce out of season. I can switch light bulbs, recycle, reuse & swap items with family & friends. I can do the same at work. Garage sales, Victory gardens, scrap drives...one day at a time. Take Baby Steps, like Bill Murray.

Is this trip to defeatistville really necessary? I don't think so.

[nadinbrzezinski]

21. Doing a systems analysis does not mean one has to be

a defeatists. But the solutions to this, as much as I recycle and do other stuff... are not really in the hands of the individual. These are policy level solutions.

Or you have the power as an individual to change the oil consumption patters of our global civilization? No. That power is with the people who hold that political power. That is where the fight is. Everything else will make you feel better.

You and my use, are statistical errors.