House & Senate Predictions- 2010.

[cecilfirefox]

I posted a thread much like this a good while back- and some people actually responded with hostility. There was this concept that talking about house or senate seat loses some how made you an enemy, that you didn't belong here- funny, considering this is a board about politics. But it's a good health discussion to have, so we as volunteers and party workers can get ready for the work to come.

That being said, put your House and Senate predictions here. How do you think we'll do? Will we loose the House, will John Boehner become Speaker, or will we loose many seats but not the 39+ needed to change party control.(This went from 40 to 39 due to the Hawaii special election that went Republican, a district they are not considered in any way likely to hold)

There are some good websites for race by race predictions,

http://www.swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=6592
http://www.electionprojection.com
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sabato%27s_Crystal_Ball

I've seen race predictions that say Democrats will go down to 50 seats in the Senate- it seems likely we'll loose a good few seats there, but unlikely we'll switch control. Many of the race predictions for the House say it will flip 21 seats, 24 seats, 25, 27, and even 31. The numbers seem all over the place!

What is clear though is that the contentious House seats are on our soil- we'd have to hold every single seat that is considered a contender for change in order to maintain our numbers now. That's realistically unlikely.

However, predictions as fun as they might be to make can often times be a bit of a waste of time- the races haven't started yet. I'm from Kansas and the 3rd Congressional district has always been held for years by a conservative Democrat- he's retiring and his wife is the likely contender for the nomination. She's a very center right candidate- which is fine by me, that's what we'd need to win- but many are writing this race off as a Republican win. I know the area she's running in and I think that's a little quick to call that race. Often times the 3rd congressional district has been considered a close race but Democrats have typically carried it well enough.

Now, my personal prediction- we may loose between 20 and 30 seats. I think more in the mid 20's. Once the races are started and we can really gauge the voters we'll have a better idea. Before former Rep. Murphy's seat was filled my predictions were pretty gloomy- seeing a Democrat, a conservative one at that, win that race in a special election where the other side is supposed to be more motivated to come and vote, where the media was telling us that every initiative we passed that the voters supported in 2008 that they suddenly no longer supported... Well, that race went far against the general thinking- it has changed the immediate political spectrum. The possibility of us loosing the House has gone from unimaginable, to realistically possible, and now to most likely not going to happen.

What do you folks think? Dazzle me! ^_^

[Lil Missy]

1. It's "lose"

[cecilfirefox]

2. * Rolls eyes. * Thanks for the productive input. nt

[Radical Activist]

3. We have a net gain of one or two seats in the Senate.

I think Senate losses will likely be balanced by taking Republican seats in MO, OH and KY. Very few house seats will be lost. People make a big mistake by thinking that polls taken 6 months before an election have anything to do with the eventual outcome. That's why the media kept telling us Hillary was sure to win the Democratic nomination.

Incumbents rarely lose House districts. I predict that less than a dozen House seats will change hands one way or the other. The real change in House seats will come in the 2012 election after redistricting. Then we'll see big changes.

FYI, I have a poll asking for Senate predictions.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=8457568&mesg_id=8457568

[cecilfirefox]

5. I agree with what you've said wholeheartedly,

and further enforce the idea that predictions now- albeit fun and a good way to spend some free time- really don't give any concrete idea as to what my happen later. We don't even have candidates for a lot of the seats until August. It's very possible we could loose 12 or 15- however, the sheer number of seats were defending really puts a hamper on good predictions.

We just got to get out our base people and spread our message.

[FrenchieCat]

4. My prediction is that the Bush Tax cut will still be allowed to expire,

no matter how much manipulation the media does in order to make sure that GOP
have a fighting chance to take back the house in order that Media Corporate execs
keep their Bush Tax cuts. I think the American people will see the Teabaggers
for the rebranding of the losing Republicans that they are for what it is.

[ThomWV]

6. Democrats will not lose a single net seat in either chamber. End of story.

[cecilfirefox]

7. Is this the best we can muster? Really? I mean REALLY?