Gale near S. Carolina coast portends a sporty summer....

[Aviation Pro]

...as a gifted amateur in meteorology this IR image in early May looks very scary:



Put it in motion here:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

[uppityperson]

1. I predict a wild spring and a lot of people wishing the Ntl Guard were in the Nation.

Then a wild summer and the same wishes. Then fall. That does look unnerving.

[Aviation Pro]

2. This is even scarier....

This is the convection coming off the West African coast. With El Nino abated all the dynamics are cueing up for this summer.

[RL3AO]

4. Storms come off of Africa year round. They are stopped because of high shear and low latitude.

[Aviation Pro]

7. Disagree...

...they abate due to drought conditions. Kerry Emmanuel at MIT has a paper on that somewhere, I'll see if I can dig it up. Conditions are very ripe for incubation this year after last year's El Nino event caused most of the tropical cyclones to die due to shear at the upper levels. However, super typhoons were in great abundance in the Pacific, which puts to rest the idea that 2005 was an anomaly. Upper level conditions along with the positive duo-decadal North Atlantic oscillations should cause a very sporty summer.

Edited for dyslexia on Dr. Emmanuel's name.

[RL3AO]

12. During the January to June months, the storms all come off south of 10 degrees north

which is too low for development. When May/June starts to get here, it starts to shift north.

[Aviation Pro]

14. Agree with that....

...direct sunlight is such a beast. However, the frequency that I see right now is enormous compared to previous years.

[RL3AO]

16. If you enjoy tropical weather, you will like this site.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

[magellan]

17. Hey, Aviation Pro

You aren't by chance a hurricane hunter, are you?

[Aviation Pro]

20. No...and I did not stand in line at Daytona Beach today.

I was working....lol.

[magellan]

22. Darn

And huh? Stand on line at Daytona Beach? What was happening there?

[Aviation Pro]

23. Here's the link....

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/P3_2007/P3_2007.html

[magellan]

24. Oh man, I'm kinda sorry I missed that

I have nothing but admiration for our hurricane hunters. Nifty job, too.

[Aviation Pro]

26. Yeah, it's nifty....

...if you like dropping dropsondes in tubulent conditions at 15,000' MSL in the outer bands....lol.

[magellan]

28. lol, yeah, perhaps 'nifty' wasn't the best word

I'd be very interested in doing that job myself if I thought my stomach could handle it. But I get sick on swings.

Now before I make myself out to be even sillier than usual, I'm gonna hightail my medicated self off to bed! Thanks for all the info, AP.

[uppityperson]

5. Where on noaa are you getting this? Can't find a tropical page, or is it ?

[RL3AO]

6. Nothing tropical. Thats just the ITCZ.

[uppityperson]

8. ITCZ? Sorry, don't know the acronym.

Thanks, am learning much about weather last several yrs. Almost as much as I forget. Thanks.

[RL3AO]

9. Inter tropical convergence zone. Its just the constant belt of storms that move around the equator.

[uppityperson]

15. Thanks to you and Av Pro below.

north meets south, swirly meets swirly area and cross swirly I guess. Non-jagoneeze. Thanks.

[Aviation Pro]

10. Intertropical Convergence Zone....

....

[misanthrope]

11. I keep hearing about the demise of El Nino...

...yet the weather on the central northern Gulf Coast this spring has been identical to last year. Remember last year? The one experts predicted would be as bad as '04 and '05 only to have them reverse prognostications more than halfway through hurricane season because it turned out El Nino had been active for many months before they even noticed?

I'm skeptical while we continue to get this dry weather from the west.

[RL3AO]

13. A light La Nina has formed in the Pacific.

[Aviation Pro]

18. Very light, bears watching....

[RL3AO]

19. Its made a comeback in the past 2 weeks.

[RufusTFirefly]

3. Context please?

Yes, I see the time stamp. But are we sure this image isn't what Condi would call "historical"?

[uppityperson]

21. Today, from NOAA site, link here

http://www.goes.noaa.gov

[RufusTFirefly]

25. Thanks UP. That helps.

As neither a meteorologist nor a "gifted amateur meteorologist" but a former journalist, I think a healthy skepticism is helpful. Mind you, I'm no Inhofe. I have no illusions about the dangers of global warming, and I'm Boxer all the way, (She's my Senator, and one of my heroes). That said, I still think critical thinking is valuable.

[Aviation Pro]

27. Critical thinking is fine....

...but sea-surface temperatures aren't the only reason for the increase in intensity - not frequency - of tropical cyclones.

[RufusTFirefly]

29. I realize that intensity, not frequency, can be blamed on global warming

And that's precisely my point.

I don't want to be sounding the alarm about something that any qualified meteorologist can dismiss for other reasons.
The risk is that it will wind up poisoning the well.
Hence my critical thinking.
We're on the same side, AP, I assure you.

[mnhtnbb]

30. Weather Channel had their hurricane expert on earlier tonight

talking about this pattern. Apparently, it's not all that unusual.

[RufusTFirefly]

31. Special Tropical Disturbance Statement

Courtesy of NOAA

000
WONT41 KNHC 081346
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
950 AM EDT TUE MAY 8 2007

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CENTERED ABOUT 230 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS...HAS BEEN
MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING
GALE-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY SURF ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND GEORGIA...WITH STRONGER WINDS
OFFSHORE. ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SINCE
YESTERDAY...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED. THE LOW IS BEING MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
TOMORROW MORNING...IF NECESSARY.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICES. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN ALSO BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER KNABB