What's cookin in the Atlantic?

[HeeBGBz]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=31&lon=-75&map=latlon&info=ir&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=12&palette=spect.pal

Off the Carolina coast heading SW to Florida.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float4.html

Is this 90L?

Cross-posted in the Weather forum.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topics&forum=328

[magellan]

1. Extra-tropical low

Cold-core. No threat, although it may come ashore around Daytona Beach, FL packing 35mph winds like a weak tropical storm. So sayeth our weatherman tonight in Orlando.

[Aviation Pro]

4. Disagree with your local 'casters assessment.....

...a cold core low it may be, but it's using the PE of very warm Gulf Stream waters for this time of year. It isn't acting like a typical cutoff low and inspite of an upper level low at the 300mb level there is outflow to the NE and SW. This is a very unusual and dangerous storm that is acting like a tropical cyclone (to include an eye-like center).

[magellan]

6. Well, he did say there was a chance

...it could turn tropical. But the waters it'll pass over off FL are still pretty cold -- 75 or thereabouts apart from a very small patch (relatively speaking) of 80 degree water -- so he said it's not likely any threat to us. Of course, what happens if it gets into the Gulf is another matter, which he didn't discuss. I don't know how warm the Gulf is right now.

[Aviation Pro]

8. 75 can sustain a Category 1....

...most of the tropical cyclones that hit New England are Cat 1s and 2s....same sea-surface temperatures.

[magellan]

15. I'm no meteorologist

Nor do I play one on tv. Just passing along what our weather dude told us just before I came here. If Tom Terry says no worry, I don't worry. And he's very good IMO, the one I've come to rely on for accurate forecasts since Charley, Francis and Jeanne slammed us.

Now you have me HOPING he's right! :)

[msongs]

2. looks like what is called a cutoff low. we get those offshore in CA every year.

they are out of the jet stream flow so just sit in one space and spin around. maybe weak or strong. their motion is unpredictable.

or maybe its an early season hurricane. in that case I would think there would be news about it at noaa (EARLIEST HURRICAN EVER...ETC!!)

msongs
www.msongs.com/political-shirts.htm

[Aviation Pro]

13. Cut off lows....

...are part of the jet stream dynamics and a high altitude phenomenom that produces mid-latitude cyclones. The classic low off the west coast is closed circulation and this one is behaving counter to the normal flow of the Rossby (long) waves. A look at the 200mb streamlines shows what appears to be retrograde streams which allows this low to move independently like a tropical cyclone:

[Warpy]

21. We got one of those here in NM last winter

and ended up with 15 inches of snow in a town that has no snowplows.

It looks like a nasty little storm, but it's no hurricane. The problem with cutoff lows is that it takes forever for them to mush on out of the area.

[Xenotime]

3. This season will see terror from storms like no other...

I just hope * has his guitar tuned.

[Freddie Stubbs]

9. They said that about last year too

[BushOut06]

28. Last year was a fluke - what about the previous years?

The year before last, the year we saw Katrina, was the first time that we actually ran out of names for hurricanes. The year before that, Florida got nailed by FOUR hurricanes.

How quickly people forget and become complacent.

[Freddie Stubbs]

29. I'm just sceptical of our ability to forecast the weather that far in advance

Of course 2004 and 2005 were very active years. But the years before then were not as active. Perhaps those two years were flukes.

[BushOut06]

5. Get used to it - pretty soon, this will be happening all year long

N/T

[RL3AO]

11. No it wont. Even if SST's go up, it doesnt mean shear will lower.

You can have 100 degree water, but if the shear is 90 mph like it is from January thru June, nothing will develop.

[lapfog_1]

7. At the very end of the long visible loop

I could swear I see the beginning of an "eye".

[RL3AO]

12. Thats just a clearing near the low. Eyes dont form until you get sub 975 mb.

[RL3AO]

10. It wont become tropical. Possibly sub-tropical, but its running out of time.

[RL3AO]

14. This is alot closer to a late season nor'easter than a tropical system.

[RL3AO]

16. SSD has it as 90L, NRL does not.

[HeeBGBz]

17. We'll have to see what happens when it hits warmer waters

The UKMET tracks it across Florida and into the Gulf.



Nothing would surprise me concerning storms brewing.

[RL3AO]

18. By the time it hits the Gulf Stream, it will be very close to land.

I dont give it much more than 15% of being named.

[magellan]

19. Won't its lack of tight organization also play into it?

The way it is now the wind shield is very broad. We've been getting gusts of 15-17 mph today in Orlando from it (calmed down now). It would have to organize and compact around the center pretty quick to become anything even mildly worrisome...and then it's on shore.

[RL3AO]

20. Look at the Water Vapor.

[magellan]

22. Dry air wrapping into it

Not a chance. :thumbsup: Thanks! :)

[RL3AO]

23. Believe it or not, its getting better organinzed.

It actually has clouds all the way around the low.

[magellan]

24. Argh! You weather aficionados make me want to pull my hair out sometimes

That's the kind of maybe/maybe-not information that makes me want to take valium 6 months out of the year. :) (j/k; I realize it's an exercise in best guesses according to available data.)

BTW, I saw your link elsewhere to Jeff Master's blog at WeatherUnderground. I haunt that place during hurricane season, trying to get a bead on where systems will wind up. I really ought to stop doing that for the sake of my nerves.

[HeeBGBz]

25. I don't want nothin sneakin up on me

I've always been a weather nut. Katrina sealed it and made me an avid, slightly-over-the-angsty-edge storm watcher and I'm learning as I go. It's a hobby.

[magellan]

26. Me either

Your handle describes my feelings on it. But it's become something of a hobby for me too, even though I'd prefer to be more like my husband, who doesn't want to know until it's time to start putting up the plywood. lol

Now I'm really off to bed! Good night! :hi:

[nadinbrzezinski]

27. Littlle early for these things

nothing to see here....

Cut off low

[Odin2005]

30. Mature extra-tropical cyclone, looks like

[HeeBGBz]

31. Sub-tropical now

Hurricane hunters planning to go out tomorrow to check it out.

[theboss]

32. So, are we all going to die or what?

I have no idea what I am supposed to be looking at.

[KoKo]

33. Thanks for posting this...!

[HeeBGBz]

34. Say hi to Andrea

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
905 AM EDT WED MAY 9 2007

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PRELIMINARY REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE IS ACQUIRING
THE CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. IF PRESENT TRENDS
CONTINUE... ADVISORIES ON SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA WOULD BE
INITIATED LATER THIS MORNING.

DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTS OF THE
CAROLINAS... GEORGIA... AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. INTERESTS IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
ON THIS SYSTEM CAN ALSO BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE... UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND
WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

[Odin2005]

35. Are you fucking kidding me?

:wow:

[HeeBGBz]

37. Listed on the Navy site as 01LAndrea

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/

Winds are somewhere around 45 to 52 mph. They should be sending out a new advisory in a few.

[arcos]

36. Andrea kick nt