http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2010/05/poll-halter-leads-lincoln-by-three-points.php?ref=fpbPoll: Halter Leads Lincoln By Three Points
Eric Kleefeld | May 27, 2010, 2:07PM
The new Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll of the Arkansas Democratic Senate primary runoff shows incumbent Sen. Blanche Lincoln narrowly trailing her more liberal challenger, Lt. Gov. Bill Halter.
The numbers: Halter 47%, Lincoln 44%. The survey of likely voters has a 5% margin of error. A previous overnight snap poll that Research 2000 did for Democracy For America, conducted the night of the May 18 first-round primary, gave Halter an edge of 48%-46%.
The TPM Poll Average shows Halter ahead by 47.3%-44.7%.
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Kos, a big-time Halter supporter, points to the candidates' favorability numbers to argue that Halter is the superior choice for Democrats. Lincoln's statewide favorable rating is only 37%, with 58% unfavorable. Halter's rating is 47%-37%, and Boozman's is 52%-34%.
Kos writes: "If Lincoln wins, this seat is a guaranteed goner. No way she makes up that ground as an incumbent in a red state in an anti-incumbent year. She's dead, dead, dead. If Halter wins, he should get his own boost, but he'll certainly start the race as the underdog."